← Smart money
0xfc04…4f75
SharpEdge
+12.1pp
ROI
+25%
Win rate
71% @ 59.3¢
Brier
0.148
Resolved
329
Avg size
$502
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 69% (46/67) | +27% | 67 |
| Other | 65% (31/48) | +16% | 48 |
| Geopolitics | 60% (3/5) | -0% | 5 |
| Tech | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
| Sports | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Politics67 bets
- Hit rate
- 69% (46/67)
- ROI
- +27%
- Other48 bets
- Hit rate
- 65% (31/48)
- ROI
- +16%
- Geopolitics5 bets
- Hit rate
- 60% (3/5)
- ROI
- -0%
- Tech1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
- Sports1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
66% hit · 80/122- Yes$2 @ 42.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 43.0¢
- Yes$3 @ 64.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 38.0¢
- Yes$17 @ 87.8¢
- Yes$1.2k @ 89.7¢
- Yes$1.6k @ 89.7¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 87.0¢
- Yes$13 @ 89.0¢
- Yes$248 @ 93.9¢
- Yes$121 @ 60.9¢
- Yes$362 @ 42.4¢
- Yes$172 @ 86.0¢
- Yes$159 @ 18.7¢
- Yes$3.0k @ 98.8¢
- No$4 @ 72.0¢
- Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?LostYes$3 @ 66.0¢
- Yes$326 @ 79.5¢
- Yes$1 @ 1.4¢
- Yes$3 @ 67.0¢
- No$23.3k @ 83.1¢
- Yes$2 @ 41.0¢
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?LostYes$1 @ 26.0¢
- No$17.5k @ 69.9¢
- No$3 @ 60.0¢
- Yes$6 @ 9.2¢
- Yes$4 @ 75.0¢
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?LostYes$1 @ 20.4¢
- Yes$6 @ 71.0¢
- Yes$3 @ 67.0¢
- Yes$4 @ 77.0¢
- No$40 @ 40.0¢
- Yes$375 @ 33.8¢
- No$38 @ 85.0¢
- Yes$12 @ 80.7¢
- Yes$2 @ 38.3¢
- Yes$2.9k @ 36.1¢
- Yes$2 @ 40.0¢
- No$4.3k @ 82.0¢
- No$8 @ 79.8¢
- Yes$1.0k @ 5.4¢
- No$1.1k @ 77.1¢
- No$330 @ 66.0¢
- Yes$17 @ 75.1¢
- No$22.1k @ 71.2¢
- Yes$391 @ 42.5¢
- No$138 @ 12.0¢
- Yes$100 @ 88.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 31.1¢
- Yes$222 @ 3.7¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Yashar win 16-18% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections? | Politics | Yes | $1.6k | 89.7¢ |
| Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 5.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections? | Politics | Yes | $1.2k | 89.7¢ |
| Will Ra'am win 8 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? | Politics | Yes | $17 | 87.8¢ |
| Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | Politics | Yes | $7 | 71.0¢ |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30? | Politics | No | $5 | 93.0¢ |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $3 | 64.0¢ |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $2 | 43.0¢ |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $2 | 42.0¢ |
| Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $2 | 38.0¢ |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | Politics | Yes | $1 | 23.0¢ |
- Yes$1.6k @ 89.7¢
- Yes$1.2k @ 89.7¢
- Yes$17 @ 87.8¢
- Yes$7 @ 71.0¢
- No$5 @ 93.0¢
- Yes$3 @ 64.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 43.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 42.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 38.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 23.0¢