0xfc04…4f75

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfc04e014f3e520191b5f456ca6a47f93b0a14f75
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.9pp

ROI

+26%

Win rate

75% @ 62.0¢

Brier

0.140

Resolved

215

Avg size

$655

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	61% (23/38)	+21%	38
Politics	67% (24/36)	+28%	36
Geopolitics	60% (3/5)	-0%	5
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other38 bets
Hit rate
61% (23/38)
ROI
+21%
Politics36 bets
Hit rate
67% (24/36)
ROI
+28%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
-0%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

62% hit · 50/81

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	1.4¢	Lost
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?	Yes	$3	67.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	$23.3k	83.1¢	Won
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	$2	41.0¢	Lost
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?	Yes	$1	26.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$17.5k	69.9¢	Won
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	$3	60.0¢	Lost
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	$6	9.2¢	Lost
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?	Yes	$4	75.0¢	Won
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?	Yes	$1	20.4¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$6	71.0¢	Won
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	Yes	$3	67.0¢	Won
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Yes	$4	77.0¢	Lost
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?	Yes	$375	33.8¢	Won
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	No	$38	85.0¢	Won
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$12	80.7¢	Won
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	Yes	$2	38.3¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$2.9k	36.1¢	Lost
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?	Yes	$2	40.0¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$4.3k	82.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$8	79.8¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$1.0k	5.4¢	Lost
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5?	No	$1.1k	77.1¢	Lost
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?	Yes	$17	75.1¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	$22.1k	71.2¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	No	$138	12.0¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	$100	88.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	$2	31.1¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	$222	3.7¢	Lost
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	$2	31.0¢	Lost
Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?	No	$886	89.0¢	Won
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?	Yes	$284	89.8¢	Won
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	$732	85.5¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	$1.4k	89.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June?	Yes	$3	17.0¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	No	$88	88.0¢	Won
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$4	81.0¢	Won
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?	No	$2	44.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?	No	$870	87.0¢	Won
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	$1.5k	55.5¢	Won
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	$7.2k	79.1¢	Won
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	$85	3.5¢	Lost
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?	No	$475	89.4¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	No	$40	40.2¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$5	57.4¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$9	74.5¢	Won
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?	Yes	$427	58.1¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of April 13 2026?	No	$264	88.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$1.1k	72.0¢	Won
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$24	79.0¢	Won

Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.4¢
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?Lost
Yes$3 @ 67.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Won
No$23.3k @ 83.1¢
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Lost
Yes$2 @ 41.0¢
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?Lost
Yes$1 @ 26.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$17.5k @ 69.9¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 60.0¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Lost
Yes$6 @ 9.2¢
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?Won
Yes$4 @ 75.0¢
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?Lost
Yes$1 @ 20.4¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$6 @ 71.0¢
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?Won
Yes$3 @ 67.0¢
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionLost
Yes$4 @ 77.0¢
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Won
Yes$375 @ 33.8¢
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?Won
No$38 @ 85.0¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$12 @ 80.7¢
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 38.3¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$2.9k @ 36.1¢
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?Won
Yes$2 @ 40.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Won
No$4.3k @ 82.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$8 @ 79.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 5.4¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5?Lost
No$1.1k @ 77.1¢
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?Won
Yes$17 @ 75.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
No$22.1k @ 71.2¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?Won
No$138 @ 12.0¢
Will Trump visit China by April 30?Lost
Yes$100 @ 88.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Lost
Yes$2 @ 31.1¢
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?Lost
Yes$222 @ 3.7¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
Yes$2 @ 31.0¢
Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?Won
No$886 @ 89.0¢
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?Won
Yes$284 @ 89.8¢
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?Won
Yes$732 @ 85.5¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 89.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June?Lost
Yes$3 @ 17.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?Won
No$88 @ 88.0¢
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?Won
Yes$4 @ 81.0¢
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?Lost
No$2 @ 44.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?Won
No$870 @ 87.0¢
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 55.5¢
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
Yes$7.2k @ 79.1¢
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?Lost
Yes$85 @ 3.5¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?Won
No$475 @ 89.4¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?Won
No$40 @ 40.2¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 57.4¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$9 @ 74.5¢
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?Won
Yes$427 @ 58.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of April 13 2026?Won
No$264 @ 88.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$1.1k @ 72.0¢
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
Yes$24 @ 79.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	No	$15.2k	78.7¢
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1	23.0¢

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
No$15.2k @ 78.7¢
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$1 @ 23.0¢