0xfbfd…0029

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfbfd14dd4bb607373119de95f1d4b21c3b6c0029
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.8pp

ROI

+9%

Win rate

65% @ 55.7¢

Brier

0.146

Resolved

2120

Avg size

$704

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	38% (18/47)	+4%	47
Economy	56% (10/18)	-76%	18
Other	70% (7/10)	+1%	10
Geopolitics	83% (5/6)	+8%	6
Crypto	100% (4/4)	+20%	4
Tech	100% (1/1)	+4%	1
Science	100% (1/1)	+7%	1

Politics47 bets
Hit rate
38% (18/47)
ROI
+4%
Economy18 bets
Hit rate
56% (10/18)
ROI
-76%
Other10 bets
Hit rate
70% (7/10)
ROI
+1%
Geopolitics6 bets
Hit rate
83% (5/6)
ROI
+8%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
100% (4/4)
ROI
+20%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+4%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+7%

Track record

53% hit · 46/87

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	Yes	$524	10.0¢	Lost
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	$3.3k	40.0¢	Lost
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	$1.4k	18.9¢	Lost
2026 Balance of Power: Other	Yes	$9.7k	13.5¢	Lost
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	$4.3k	41.3¢	Lost
Will a 8.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	No	$137	93.5¢	Won
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	$940	94.0¢	Won
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	$3.0k	60.4¢	Won
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	$7.1k	20.9¢	Lost
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	$6.4k	64.0¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$3.6k	36.0¢	Lost
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	$359	36.0¢	Lost
Rubio flips Vance for GOP nomination by October 31?	No	$196	98.0¢	Won
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?	No	$790	79.0¢	Won
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	No	$3.8k	83.9¢	Won
Republican House odds dip to 5% by October 31?	No	$219	76.0¢	Won
Will Kanye West meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31?	No	$477	96.2¢	Won
Republican Senate odds dip to 25% by October 31?	No	$147	67.0¢	Won
Ilhan Omar federally charged by October 31?	No	$961	96.1¢	Won
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	No	$3.7k	75.3¢	Won
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% in October?	No	$229	94.8¢	Won
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.95% in October?	No	$16	98.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	$22.9k	75.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$5.9k	19.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$756	12.8¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$8.5k	17.4¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$8.2k	20.0¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	$6.1k	18.0¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1.6k	23.2¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in September?	No	$491	88.8¢	Won
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	No	$2.0k	38.3¢	Lost
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.65% before 2027?	Yes	$260	60.0¢	Won
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% in September?	Yes	$51	74.5¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$66	0.7¢	Lost
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.1% before 2027?	No	$298	34.6¢	Lost
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	$99	1.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?	No	$2.2k	89.0¢	Won
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$70	13.3¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$204.1k	32.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$174.9k	82.2¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	$33.0k	24.8¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$5.2k	75.7¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September?	Yes	$1.0k	6.2¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	Yes	$185	37.0¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$902.8k	73.2¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$27.4k	50.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	$121.4k	76.4¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September?	No	$90	0.9¢	Lost
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$34	0.9¢	Lost
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% before 2027?	Yes	$168	83.5¢	Won

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HouseLost
Yes$524 @ 10.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseLost
No$3.3k @ 40.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseLost
Yes$1.4k @ 18.9¢
2026 Balance of Power: OtherLost
Yes$9.7k @ 13.5¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Lost
No$4.3k @ 41.3¢
Will a 8.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?Won
No$137 @ 93.5¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
No$940 @ 94.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
No$3.0k @ 60.4¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Lost
Yes$7.1k @ 20.9¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Won
No$6.4k @ 64.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Lost
Yes$3.6k @ 36.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Lost
No$359 @ 36.0¢
Rubio flips Vance for GOP nomination by October 31?Won
No$196 @ 98.0¢
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?Won
No$790 @ 79.0¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?Won
No$3.8k @ 83.9¢
Republican House odds dip to 5% by October 31?Won
No$219 @ 76.0¢
Will Kanye West meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31?Won
No$477 @ 96.2¢
Republican Senate odds dip to 25% by October 31?Won
No$147 @ 67.0¢
Ilhan Omar federally charged by October 31?Won
No$961 @ 96.1¢
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?Won
No$3.7k @ 75.3¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% in October?Won
No$229 @ 94.8¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.95% in October?Won
No$16 @ 98.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Won
No$22.9k @ 75.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$5.9k @ 19.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$756 @ 12.8¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$8.5k @ 17.4¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$8.2k @ 20.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Lost
No$6.1k @ 18.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 23.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in September?Won
No$491 @ 88.8¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?Lost
No$2.0k @ 38.3¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.65% before 2027?Won
Yes$260 @ 60.0¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% in September?Won
Yes$51 @ 74.5¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$66 @ 0.7¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.1% before 2027?Lost
No$298 @ 34.6¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
No$99 @ 1.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?Won
No$2.2k @ 89.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$70 @ 13.3¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
No$204.1k @ 32.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$174.9k @ 82.2¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
No$33.0k @ 24.8¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$5.2k @ 75.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 6.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$185 @ 37.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Won
No$902.8k @ 73.2¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$27.4k @ 50.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Won
No$121.4k @ 76.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September?Lost
No$90 @ 0.9¢
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$34 @ 0.9¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% before 2027?Won
Yes$168 @ 83.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$8.7k	87.4¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$5.4k	80.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in November?	Other	No	$4.6k	97.8¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?	Economy	No	$3.0k	85.5¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?	Economy	No	$2.6k	92.4¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?	Other	No	$1.3k	90.1¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?	Other	No	$973	76.8¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$940	94.0¢
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?	Politics	No	$721	77.0¢
Will XRP reach $3.00 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$648	84.5¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% before 2027?	Economy	No	$614	81.5¢
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	No	$511	52.0¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $7.00 on November 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$427	91.3¢
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?	Politics	No	$340	75.4¢
Obama federally charged before 2027?	Politics	No	$329	88.8¢
Will XRP reach $2.80 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$261	91.1¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by March 31, 2027?	Geopolitics	Yes	$251	23.0¢
Will XRP reach $2.60 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$248	85.2¢
Will Trump meet with Changpeng Zhao in 2026?	Politics	No	$239	91.0¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?	Economy	No	$238	88.1¢
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.50 and $0.75 on November 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$228	91.3¢
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?	Tech	No	$178	89.0¢
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$174	65.4¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,400 in November?	Other	No	$150	97.0¢
Natural Disaster in 2026?	Tech	No	$149	74.4¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $4.50 on November 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$149	91.0¢
Tim Walz in jail by December 31?	Politics	No	$141	94.0¢
Will a 8.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	Science	No	$137	93.5¢
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$133	88.7¢
Will XRP reach $3.80 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$111	92.0¢

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Geopolitics
No$8.7k @ 87.4¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$5.4k @ 80.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in November?Other
No$4.6k @ 97.8¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?Economy
No$3.0k @ 85.5¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?Economy
No$2.6k @ 92.4¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?Other
No$1.3k @ 90.1¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?Other
No$973 @ 76.8¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$940 @ 94.0¢
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?Politics
No$721 @ 77.0¢
Will XRP reach $3.00 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$648 @ 84.5¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% before 2027?Economy
No$614 @ 81.5¢
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
No$511 @ 52.0¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $7.00 on November 30, 2026?Tech
No$427 @ 91.3¢
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?Politics
No$340 @ 75.4¢
Obama federally charged before 2027?Politics
No$329 @ 88.8¢
Will XRP reach $2.80 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$261 @ 91.1¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by March 31, 2027?Geopolitics
Yes$251 @ 23.0¢
Will XRP reach $2.60 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$248 @ 85.2¢
Will Trump meet with Changpeng Zhao in 2026?Politics
No$239 @ 91.0¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?Economy
No$238 @ 88.1¢
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.50 and $0.75 on November 30, 2026?Tech
No$228 @ 91.3¢
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?Tech
No$178 @ 89.0¢
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$174 @ 65.4¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,400 in November?Other
No$150 @ 97.0¢
Natural Disaster in 2026?Tech
No$149 @ 74.4¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $4.50 on November 30, 2026?Tech
No$149 @ 91.0¢
Tim Walz in jail by December 31?Politics
No$141 @ 94.0¢
Will a 8.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?Science
No$137 @ 93.5¢
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$133 @ 88.7¢
Will XRP reach $3.80 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$111 @ 92.0¢