0xfbd2…61f1

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfbd2a02c1fb3ea1bc0ac1c1376ff82ed1a8361f1
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

ProfitableSniper

Edge

+7.5pp

ROI

+24%

Win rate

63% @ 55.7¢

Brier

0.220

Resolved

529

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Sports	55% (32/58)	+26%	58
Other	56% (15/27)	+32%	27
Politics	33% (3/9)	-71%	9
Tech	100% (6/6)	+108%	6
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+17%	1
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Sports58 bets
Hit rate
55% (32/58)
ROI
+26%
Other27 bets
Hit rate
56% (15/27)
ROI
+32%
Politics9 bets
Hit rate
33% (3/9)
ROI
-71%
Tech6 bets
Hit rate
100% (6/6)
ROI
+108%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+17%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

56% hit · 57/102

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	No	$54	72.8¢	Lost
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$24	24.6¢	Won
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5	Under	$7	71.7¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	$4	83.4¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	No	$30	41.0¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$34	61.1¢	Won
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	Over	$4	49.5¢	Lost
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	Under	$9	71.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$3	71.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$20	19.4¢	Lost
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner	BetBoom Team	$4	41.0¢	Lost
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner	Team Spirit	$19	54.6¢	Won
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	No	$9	31.3¢	Lost
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$55	80.7¢	Won
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?	Yes	$5	54.3¢	Won
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens	Canadiens	$2	42.0¢	Lost
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	No	$39	27.7¢	Lost
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$32	72.7¢	Won
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	No	$60	44.4¢	Won
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$19	69.8¢	Lost
Spurs vs. Thunder: Odd/Even Score	Odd	$11	51.0¢	Won
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner	Aurora	$10	48.0¢	Lost
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner	Team Yandex	$22	49.0¢	Won
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	No	$4	31.3¢	Lost
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	$79	65.3¢	Won
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner	Vici Gaming	$1	35.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$38	83.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	$1	8.0¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$1	23.8¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?	No	$2	89.0¢	Won
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner	PARIVISION	$1	50.0¢	Lost
Will Inter Miami CF vs. Portland Timbers end in a draw?	No	$5	86.0¢	Won
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	No	$27	80.4¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	$3	20.4¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	39.9¢	Lost
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	No	$14	59.9¢	Won
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	$3	44.4¢	Lost
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	No	$135	65.8¢	Won
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	$5	29.6¢	Lost
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	$26	38.3¢	Lost
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner	Team Yandex	$12	55.7¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	$3	40.0¢	Lost
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	No	$3	15.0¢	Lost
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	$52	79.6¢	Won
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	No	$29	84.3¢	Won
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	$26	51.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$1	88.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$12	85.4¢	Won
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$8	31.4¢	Won
NHL: Stanley Cup Winner USA or Canada?	USA	$2	78.0¢	Won

Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?Lost
No$54 @ 72.8¢
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?Won
Yes$24 @ 24.6¢
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5Won
Under$7 @ 71.7¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Won
No$4 @ 83.4¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Lost
No$30 @ 41.0¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$34 @ 61.1¢
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5Lost
Over$4 @ 49.5¢
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5Won
Under$9 @ 71.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$3 @ 71.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 19.4¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 WinnerLost
BetBoom Team$4 @ 41.0¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 WinnerWon
Team Spirit$19 @ 54.6¢
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?Lost
No$9 @ 31.3¢
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?Won
Yes$55 @ 80.7¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 54.3¢
Hurricanes vs. CanadiensLost
Canadiens$2 @ 42.0¢
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?Lost
No$39 @ 27.7¢
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?Won
Yes$32 @ 72.7¢
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?Won
No$60 @ 44.4¢
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$19 @ 69.8¢
Spurs vs. Thunder: Odd/Even ScoreWon
Odd$11 @ 51.0¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 WinnerLost
Aurora$10 @ 48.0¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 WinnerWon
Team Yandex$22 @ 49.0¢
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?Lost
No$4 @ 31.3¢
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?Won
Yes$79 @ 65.3¢
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 WinnerLost
Vici Gaming$1 @ 35.0¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$38 @ 83.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 23.8¢
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 89.0¢
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid - Game 2 WinnerLost
PARIVISION$1 @ 50.0¢
Will Inter Miami CF vs. Portland Timbers end in a draw?Won
No$5 @ 86.0¢
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?Won
No$27 @ 80.4¢
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 20.4¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 39.9¢
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?Won
No$14 @ 59.9¢
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?Lost
Yes$3 @ 44.4¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?Won
No$135 @ 65.8¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?Lost
Yes$5 @ 29.6¢
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?Lost
Yes$26 @ 38.3¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 WinnerWon
Team Yandex$12 @ 55.7¢
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 40.0¢
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?Lost
No$3 @ 15.0¢
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?Won
Yes$52 @ 79.6¢
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?Won
No$29 @ 84.3¢
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco GiantsWon
San Francisco Giants$26 @ 51.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 88.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$12 @ 85.4¢
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$8 @ 31.4¢
NHL: Stanley Cup Winner USA or Canada?Won
USA$2 @ 78.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Other	No	$44	90.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Geopolitics	No	$24	82.2¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$20	75.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$17	66.0¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Tech	Yes	$12	54.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$10	62.6¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Politics	Yes	$9	58.4¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$6	79.2¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	Other	No	$5	87.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?	Politics	No	$5	62.7¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	Politics	Yes	$5	30.6¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Politics	No	$5	60.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Tech	Yes	$5	71.5¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4	72.2¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Other	No	$4	83.4¢
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$4	75.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$4	61.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4	94.2¢
Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	No	$4	81.4¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$3	36.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$3	15.8¢
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	No	$3	65.0¢
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	No	$3	32.0¢
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	No	$3	88.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?	Politics	No	$3	94.0¢
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?	Tech	No	$2	48.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	Other	No	$2	93.7¢
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	No	$2	52.5¢
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$2	66.8¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$2	57.0¢

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?Other
No$44 @ 90.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
No$24 @ 82.2¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$20 @ 75.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$17 @ 66.0¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Tech
Yes$12 @ 54.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Politics
No$10 @ 62.6¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Politics
Yes$9 @ 58.4¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?Politics
Yes$6 @ 79.2¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?Other
No$5 @ 87.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?Politics
No$5 @ 62.7¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?Politics
Yes$5 @ 30.6¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics
No$5 @ 60.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech
Yes$5 @ 71.5¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$4 @ 72.2¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Other
No$4 @ 83.4¢
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$4 @ 75.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics
Yes$4 @ 61.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Politics
Yes$4 @ 94.2¢
Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
No$4 @ 81.4¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Politics
No$3 @ 36.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$3 @ 15.8¢
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
No$3 @ 65.0¢
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
No$3 @ 32.0¢
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
No$3 @ 88.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Politics
No$3 @ 94.0¢
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?Tech
No$2 @ 48.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?Other
No$2 @ 93.7¢
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
No$2 @ 52.5¢
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$2 @ 66.8¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$2 @ 57.0¢