0xfbd2…61f1

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfbd2a02c1fb3ea1bc0ac1c1376ff82ed1a8361f1
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

ProfitableSniper

Edge

+6.6pp

ROI

+22%

Win rate

62% @ 55.4¢

Brier

0.221

Resolved

545

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Sports	56% (35/62)	+25%	62
Other	55% (17/31)	+27%	31
Politics	33% (3/9)	-71%	9
Tech	100% (6/6)	+108%	6
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+17%	1
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Sports62 bets
Hit rate
56% (35/62)
ROI
+25%
Other31 bets
Hit rate
55% (17/31)
ROI
+27%
Politics9 bets
Hit rate
33% (3/9)
ROI
-71%
Tech6 bets
Hit rate
100% (6/6)
ROI
+108%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+17%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

56% hit · 62/110

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	No	$54	72.8¢	Lost
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$24	24.6¢	Won
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5	Under	$7	71.7¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	$4	83.4¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	No	$30	41.0¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$34	61.1¢	Won
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	Over	$4	49.5¢	Lost
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	Under	$9	71.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$3	71.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$20	19.4¢	Lost
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner	BetBoom Team	$4	41.0¢	Lost
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner	Team Spirit	$19	54.6¢	Won
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	No	$9	31.3¢	Lost
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$55	80.7¢	Won
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?	Yes	$5	54.3¢	Won
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens	Canadiens	$2	42.0¢	Lost
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	No	$39	27.7¢	Lost
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$32	72.7¢	Won
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	No	$60	44.4¢	Won
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$19	69.8¢	Lost
Spurs vs. Thunder: Odd/Even Score	Odd	$11	51.0¢	Won
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner	Aurora	$10	48.0¢	Lost
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner	Team Yandex	$22	49.0¢	Won
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	No	$4	31.3¢	Lost
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	$79	65.3¢	Won
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner	Vici Gaming	$1	35.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$38	83.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	$1	8.0¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?	No	$2	89.0¢	Won
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner	PARIVISION	$1	50.0¢	Lost
Will Inter Miami CF vs. Portland Timbers end in a draw?	No	$5	86.0¢	Won
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	No	$27	80.4¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	$3	20.4¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	39.9¢	Lost
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	No	$14	59.9¢	Won
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	$3	44.4¢	Lost
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	No	$135	65.8¢	Won
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	$5	29.6¢	Lost
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	$26	38.3¢	Lost
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner	Team Yandex	$12	55.7¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	$3	40.0¢	Lost
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	No	$3	15.0¢	Lost
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	$52	79.6¢	Won
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	No	$29	84.3¢	Won
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	$26	51.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$1	88.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$12	85.4¢	Won
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$8	31.4¢	Won
NHL: Stanley Cup Winner USA or Canada?	USA	$2	78.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$3	57.8¢	Lost

Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?Lost
No$54 @ 72.8¢
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?Won
Yes$24 @ 24.6¢
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5Won
Under$7 @ 71.7¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Won
No$4 @ 83.4¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Lost
No$30 @ 41.0¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$34 @ 61.1¢
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5Lost
Over$4 @ 49.5¢
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5Won
Under$9 @ 71.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$3 @ 71.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 19.4¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 WinnerLost
BetBoom Team$4 @ 41.0¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 WinnerWon
Team Spirit$19 @ 54.6¢
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?Lost
No$9 @ 31.3¢
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?Won
Yes$55 @ 80.7¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 54.3¢
Hurricanes vs. CanadiensLost
Canadiens$2 @ 42.0¢
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?Lost
No$39 @ 27.7¢
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?Won
Yes$32 @ 72.7¢
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?Won
No$60 @ 44.4¢
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$19 @ 69.8¢
Spurs vs. Thunder: Odd/Even ScoreWon
Odd$11 @ 51.0¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 WinnerLost
Aurora$10 @ 48.0¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 WinnerWon
Team Yandex$22 @ 49.0¢
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?Lost
No$4 @ 31.3¢
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?Won
Yes$79 @ 65.3¢
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 WinnerLost
Vici Gaming$1 @ 35.0¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$38 @ 83.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 89.0¢
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid - Game 2 WinnerLost
PARIVISION$1 @ 50.0¢
Will Inter Miami CF vs. Portland Timbers end in a draw?Won
No$5 @ 86.0¢
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?Won
No$27 @ 80.4¢
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 20.4¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 39.9¢
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?Won
No$14 @ 59.9¢
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?Lost
Yes$3 @ 44.4¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?Won
No$135 @ 65.8¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?Lost
Yes$5 @ 29.6¢
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?Lost
Yes$26 @ 38.3¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 WinnerWon
Team Yandex$12 @ 55.7¢
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 40.0¢
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?Lost
No$3 @ 15.0¢
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?Won
Yes$52 @ 79.6¢
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?Won
No$29 @ 84.3¢
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco GiantsWon
San Francisco Giants$26 @ 51.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 88.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$12 @ 85.4¢
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$8 @ 31.4¢
NHL: Stanley Cup Winner USA or Canada?Won
USA$2 @ 78.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 57.8¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Politics	Yes	$28	48.4¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Tech	Yes	$14	53.1¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Business	Yes	$13	34.6¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10	76.1¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$8	88.6¢
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$7	52.0¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$7	94.6¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$7	70.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$6	73.2¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Business	Yes	$6	73.5¢
Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$6	93.0¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Politics	No	$5	59.5¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$5	14.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	—	Yes	$5	79.0¢
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?	—	No	$4	39.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$4	6.0¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Politics	No	$4	70.4¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$4	39.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$4	60.1¢
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Sports	No	$3	86.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$3	77.4¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?	—	No	$3	83.7¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	—	Yes	$3	69.0¢
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?	—	No	$3	55.0¢
Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?	—	No	$2	94.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$2	88.0¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?	—	No	$2	61.3¢
Will the Philadelphia Phillies clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?	Sports	Yes	$2	78.0¢
Will the Chicago Cubs clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?	Sports	Yes	$2	73.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?	Politics	Yes	$2	60.0¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Politics
Yes$28 @ 48.4¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Tech
Yes$14 @ 53.1¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Business
Yes$13 @ 34.6¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$10 @ 76.1¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$8 @ 88.6¢
OpenAI IPO before 2027?Business
No$7 @ 52.0¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
No$7 @ 94.6¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?—
No$7 @ 70.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$6 @ 73.2¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Business
Yes$6 @ 73.5¢
Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by December 31, 2026?—
Yes$6 @ 93.0¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
No$5 @ 59.5¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$5 @ 14.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?—
Yes$5 @ 79.0¢
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?—
No$4 @ 39.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Tech
Yes$4 @ 6.0¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?Politics
No$4 @ 70.4¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?—
Yes$4 @ 39.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$4 @ 60.1¢
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?Sports
No$3 @ 86.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?—
No$3 @ 77.4¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?—
No$3 @ 83.7¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?—
Yes$3 @ 69.0¢
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?—
No$3 @ 55.0¢
Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?—
No$2 @ 94.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$2 @ 88.0¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?—
No$2 @ 61.3¢
Will the Philadelphia Phillies clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?Sports
Yes$2 @ 78.0¢
Will the Chicago Cubs clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?Sports
Yes$2 @ 73.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Politics
Yes$2 @ 60.0¢