← Smart money
0xf910…7467
SharpEdge
+15.5pp
ROI
+18%
Win rate
95% @ 79.9¢
Brier
0.031
Resolved
86
Avg size
$581
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitics | 100% (3/3) | +18% | 3 |
| Politics | 50% (1/2) | +10% | 2 |
| Other | 100% (2/2) | +26% | 2 |
- Geopolitics3 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (3/3)
- ROI
- +18%
- Politics2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- +10%
- Other2 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (2/2)
- ROI
- +26%
Track record
86% hit · 6/7| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | $1.3k | 65.0¢ | Won |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | $23.3k | 83.1¢ | Won |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | No | $10.5k | 87.8¢ | Won |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | Yes | $388 | 15.5¢ | Lost |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | No | $4.3k | 85.0¢ | Won |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | No | $4.3k | 85.1¢ | Won |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | No | $6.0k | 85.7¢ | Won |
- Yes$1.3k @ 65.0¢
- No$23.3k @ 83.1¢
- No$10.5k @ 87.8¢
- Yes$388 @ 15.5¢
- No$4.3k @ 85.0¢
- No$4.3k @ 85.1¢
- No$6.0k @ 85.7¢
Recent trades
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Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Politics | Yes | $17.5k | 50.0¢ |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Politics | No | $17.5k | 50.0¢ |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | Politics | No | $17.3k | 91.1¢ |
| Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | Politics | Yes | $6.9k | 84.3¢ |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | Politics | Yes | $2.8k | 91.0¢ |
| Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election? | Politics | Yes | $1.5k | 77.0¢ |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Politics | Yes | $1.1k | 54.0¢ |
| Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election? | Politics | Yes | $884 | 85.0¢ |
- Yes$17.5k @ 50.0¢
- No$17.5k @ 50.0¢
- No$17.3k @ 91.1¢
- Yes$6.9k @ 84.3¢
- Yes$2.8k @ 91.0¢
- Yes$1.5k @ 77.0¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 54.0¢
- Yes$884 @ 85.0¢