0xf80e…2af8

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf80e74bc34e0c1be6d4352d6edebb710e6602af8
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.9pp

ROI

+25%

Win rate

54% @ 40.0¢

Brier

0.157

Resolved

232

Avg size

$76

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (37/74)	+19%	74
Economy	100% (3/3)	+106%	3
Politics	50% (1/2)	+195%	2

Other74 bets
Hit rate
50% (37/74)
ROI
+19%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+106%
Politics2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+195%

Track record

52% hit · 41/79

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	$150	30.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?	No	$5	25.6¢	Lost
Will Jake Paul fight Anthony Joshua in 2025?	Yes	$140	70.0¢	Won
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	Yes	$319	64.4¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	$894	67.0¢	Won
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?	No	$13	53.0¢	Won
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?	Yes	$0	31.0¢	Lost
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	Yes	$300	26.8¢	Won
Will Tim Walz say "Trump" 20 or more times during the debate?	No	$3	21.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?	No	$119	64.7¢	Lost
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?	No	$106	21.1¢	Lost
Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency?	Yes	$500	37.0¢	Won
Seahawks vs. Patriots	Patriots	$25	32.0¢	Lost
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela in 2025?	Yes	$40	4.0¢	Lost
Will Jacques Audiard win Best Director at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "Emilia Pérez"?	Yes	$2	4.2¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$78	32.3¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	$552	75.3¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?	No	$141	56.6¢	Won
Will JD Vance say "Trans" during the debate?	No	$77	44.8¢	Won
Will JD Vance say "Trans" during the debate?	Yes	$84	48.5¢	Lost
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?	Yes	$200	32.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $63 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Yes	$15	56.4¢	Won
Will the 2026 State of the Union address last 100 minutes or longer?	Yes	$1.1k	70.9¢	Won
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during tariff event on April 2?	Yes	$89	58.3¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	$353	86.0¢	Won
Ethereum all time high in 2024?	No	$820	53.1¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	$1.3k	70.1¢	Won
Will Trump say 'Canada' during the 2025 State of the Union?	Yes	$414	75.0¢	Won
Will Tim Walz say "Trump" 30 or more times during the debate?	Yes	$5	41.0¢	Won
US military action against Iran before July?	Yes	$72	60.4¢	Won
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?	No	$27	0.9¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	Yes	$2.2k	73.0¢	Won
Will JD Vance say "Helene" during the debate?	No	$78	87.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "India" during tariff event on April 2?	No	$57	29.6¢	Lost
Will the Kansas City Royals win the World Series?	Yes	$2	4.8¢	Lost
Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?	Yes	$100	4.2¢	Lost
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in August?	Yes	$380	76.0¢	Won
Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by March 31?	No	$174	57.0¢	Lost
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	$650	65.0¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$215	53.0¢	Won
Will Google have the top AI model on February 28?	No	$174	25.3¢	Won
Will Google have the top AI model on February 28?	Yes	$8	1.2¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?	No	$138	80.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 Superheavy explode?	No	$4	24.0¢	Lost
Will "Emilia Pérez" win Best Film at the 2025 BAFTA Awards?	Yes	$5	2.1¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?	Yes	$1.3k	74.2¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?	No	$617	75.2¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?	Yes	$1	22.0¢	Won
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?	No	$100	30.4¢	Won
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025?	No	$273	73.0¢	Won

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Won
No$150 @ 30.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?Lost
No$5 @ 25.6¢
Will Jake Paul fight Anthony Joshua in 2025?Won
Yes$140 @ 70.0¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?Won
Yes$319 @ 64.4¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?Won
No$894 @ 67.0¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?Won
No$13 @ 53.0¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?Lost
Yes$0 @ 31.0¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?Won
Yes$300 @ 26.8¢
Will Tim Walz say "Trump" 20 or more times during the debate?Lost
No$3 @ 21.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?Lost
No$119 @ 64.7¢
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?Lost
No$106 @ 21.1¢
Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency? Won
Yes$500 @ 37.0¢
Seahawks vs. PatriotsLost
Patriots$25 @ 32.0¢
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela in 2025?Lost
Yes$40 @ 4.0¢
Will Jacques Audiard win Best Director at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "Emilia Pérez"?Lost
Yes$2 @ 4.2¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
No$78 @ 32.3¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026?Won
No$552 @ 75.3¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?Won
No$141 @ 56.6¢
Will JD Vance say "Trans" during the debate?Won
No$77 @ 44.8¢
Will JD Vance say "Trans" during the debate?Lost
Yes$84 @ 48.5¢
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?Lost
Yes$200 @ 32.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $63 on the final trading day of June 2026?Won
Yes$15 @ 56.4¢
Will the 2026 State of the Union address last 100 minutes or longer?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 70.9¢
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during tariff event on April 2?Won
Yes$89 @ 58.3¢
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025?Won
No$353 @ 86.0¢
Ethereum all time high in 2024?Won
No$820 @ 53.1¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025?Won
No$1.3k @ 70.1¢
Will Trump say 'Canada' during the 2025 State of the Union?Won
Yes$414 @ 75.0¢
Will Tim Walz say "Trump" 30 or more times during the debate?Won
Yes$5 @ 41.0¢
US military action against Iran before July?Won
Yes$72 @ 60.4¢
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?Lost
No$27 @ 0.9¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Won
Yes$2.2k @ 73.0¢
Will JD Vance say "Helene" during the debate?Won
No$78 @ 87.0¢
Will Trump say "India" during tariff event on April 2?Lost
No$57 @ 29.6¢
Will the Kansas City Royals win the World Series?Lost
Yes$2 @ 4.8¢
Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?Lost
Yes$100 @ 4.2¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in August?Won
Yes$380 @ 76.0¢
Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by March 31?Lost
No$174 @ 57.0¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Won
Yes$650 @ 65.0¢
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$215 @ 53.0¢
Will Google have the top AI model on February 28?Won
No$174 @ 25.3¢
Will Google have the top AI model on February 28?Lost
Yes$8 @ 1.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?Won
No$138 @ 80.0¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 Superheavy explode?Lost
No$4 @ 24.0¢
Will "Emilia Pérez" win Best Film at the 2025 BAFTA Awards?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 74.2¢
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?Lost
No$617 @ 75.2¢
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?Won
Yes$1 @ 22.0¢
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?Won
No$100 @ 30.4¢
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025?Won
No$273 @ 73.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Crypto	No	$3.3k	81.3¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$2.9k	87.3¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	No	$2.8k	80.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$2.8k	81.8¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$2.8k	92.3¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$2.7k	88.8¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$2.2k	88.0¢
US recession by end of 2026?	Economy	No	$1.8k	92.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$1.3k	88.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$1.3k	50.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.3k	50.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	49.0¢
Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by December 31?	Politics	No	$1.1k	90.1¢
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Economy	No	$1.1k	98.9¢
Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?	Politics	No	$839	94.8¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$700	70.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$690	69.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$645	43.0¢
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?	Politics	No	$625	84.9¢
Will Missouri use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Politics	No	$314	86.0¢
OPEC dissolves in 2026?	Politics	No	$267	95.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$245	49.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: Obama	Politics	Nothing	$180	94.0¢
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?	Politics	No	$135	89.1¢
Will over 50 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?	Politics	No	$123	65.0¢
Will Trump's first pick win the 2028 US presidential election?	Politics	No	$121	65.5¢
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?	Politics	No	$119	90.0¢
Will Republicans sweep the Texas Senate and Governor elections?	Politics	Yes	$118	41.7¢
Will Republicans win the Texas Governor election and Democrats win the Texas Senate election?	Politics	Yes	$118	38.5¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$91	91.7¢

Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?Crypto
No$3.3k @ 81.3¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$2.9k @ 87.3¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
No$2.8k @ 80.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
No$2.8k @ 81.8¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$2.8k @ 92.3¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Geopolitics
No$2.7k @ 88.8¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$2.2k @ 88.0¢
US recession by end of 2026?Economy
No$1.8k @ 92.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$1.3k @ 88.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$1.3k @ 50.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.3k @ 50.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$1.2k @ 49.0¢
Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by December 31?Politics
No$1.1k @ 90.1¢
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Economy
No$1.1k @ 98.9¢
Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?Politics
No$839 @ 94.8¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$700 @ 70.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$690 @ 69.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$645 @ 43.0¢
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?Politics
No$625 @ 84.9¢
Will Missouri use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Politics
No$314 @ 86.0¢
OPEC dissolves in 2026?Politics
No$267 @ 95.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$245 @ 49.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: ObamaPolitics
Nothing$180 @ 94.0¢
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?Politics
No$135 @ 89.1¢
Will over 50 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?Politics
No$123 @ 65.0¢
Will Trump's first pick win the 2028 US presidential election?Politics
No$121 @ 65.5¢
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?Politics
No$119 @ 90.0¢
Will Republicans sweep the Texas Senate and Governor elections?Politics
Yes$118 @ 41.7¢
Will Republicans win the Texas Governor election and Democrats win the Texas Senate election?Politics
Yes$118 @ 38.5¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
No$91 @ 91.7¢