0xf7b3…eeb2

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf7b3094865495f74f01bbf7fbcc83c535da5eeb2
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+10.3pp

ROI

+7%

Win rate

78% @ 68.1¢

Brier

0.092

Resolved

764

Avg size

$43

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	82% (31/38)	+19%	38
Politics	76% (26/34)	-3%	34
Geopolitics	50% (2/4)	-70%	4
Tech	100% (1/1)	+52%	1
Economy	100% (1/1)	+37%	1

Other38 bets
Hit rate
82% (31/38)
ROI
+19%
Politics34 bets
Hit rate
76% (26/34)
ROI
-3%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
-70%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+52%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+37%

Track record

78% hit · 61/78

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	Yes	$13	4.3¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$171	85.5¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$88	87.5¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	Yes	$89	89.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?	No	$88	88.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	No	$414	76.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$36	71.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$89	89.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?	No	$260	86.7¢	Won
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	No	$782	65.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?	No	$5.4k	78.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	No	$87	87.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 24, 2026?	No	$90	90.0¢	Won
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	$344	78.8¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$300	75.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$76	76.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?	No	$93	93.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?	No	$120	93.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	No	$246	82.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?	No	$190	95.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$45	66.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?	No	$176	88.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$508	14.5¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	$15	30.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?	Yes	$1.6k	82.2¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	No	$491	88.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	No	$1.0k	85.8¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	No	$75	75.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	Yes	$793	34.6¢	Lost
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?	No	$205	85.4¢	Won
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$263	95.0¢	Won
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	$184	92.0¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	$14	7.0¢	Lost
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$110	51.5¢	Won
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$13	21.8¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	$3.1k	88.5¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$180	90.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	$156	78.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	$2.6k	56.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$477	68.2¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by June 13?	No	$352	85.2¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	Yes	$1.2k	79.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	No	$87	87.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	No	$356	89.0¢	Won
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	No	$438	87.8¢	Won
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	$164	82.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$192	76.8¢	Won
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	$437	87.4¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	$28	28.0¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	$88	88.0¢	Won

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$13 @ 4.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$171 @ 85.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$88 @ 87.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Won
Yes$89 @ 89.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?Won
No$88 @ 88.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Won
No$414 @ 76.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$36 @ 71.0¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$89 @ 89.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?Won
No$260 @ 86.7¢
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Won
No$782 @ 65.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?Won
No$5.4k @ 78.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Won
No$87 @ 87.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 24, 2026?Won
No$90 @ 90.0¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Lost
No$344 @ 78.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$300 @ 75.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$76 @ 76.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?Won
No$93 @ 93.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?Won
No$120 @ 93.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Won
No$246 @ 82.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?Won
No$190 @ 95.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$45 @ 66.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?Won
No$176 @ 88.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$508 @ 14.5¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?Won
Yes$15 @ 30.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 82.2¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?Won
No$491 @ 88.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?Won
No$1.0k @ 85.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Won
No$75 @ 75.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Lost
Yes$793 @ 34.6¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?Won
No$205 @ 85.4¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$263 @ 95.0¢
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Won
No$184 @ 92.0¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$14 @ 7.0¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$110 @ 51.5¢
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$13 @ 21.8¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Won
No$3.1k @ 88.5¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$180 @ 90.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Won
No$156 @ 78.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Lost
Yes$2.6k @ 56.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$477 @ 68.2¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 13?Won
No$352 @ 85.2¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 79.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?Won
No$87 @ 87.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?Won
No$356 @ 89.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?Won
No$438 @ 87.8¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$164 @ 82.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$192 @ 76.8¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Won
No$437 @ 87.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?Lost
Yes$28 @ 28.0¢
Iran leadership change by June 30?Won
No$88 @ 88.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$3.0k	57.1¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Politics	No	$3.0k	74.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$2.5k	75.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$2.1k	74.8¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$2.1k	83.7¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.7k	87.1¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	Politics	No	$704	70.4¢
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	—	No	$638	91.1¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?	—	No	$482	87.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?	—	No	$434	94.3¢
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Politics	No	$419	53.2¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$250	83.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?	—	Yes	$206	68.1¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$194	77.7¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$171	85.5¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	—	Yes	$170	85.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	—	No	$166	12.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in September?	—	No	$142	91.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?	—	No	$135	90.0¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	—	Yes	$134	89.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?	—	No	$125	83.4¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$93	93.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$92	92.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$83	83.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	—	No	$75	75.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$56	56.0¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	—	Yes	$35	7.0¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	—	Yes	$9	1.5¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$3.0k @ 57.1¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
No$3.0k @ 74.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$2.5k @ 75.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$2.1k @ 74.8¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$2.1k @ 83.7¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.7k @ 87.1¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?Politics
No$704 @ 70.4¢
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?—
No$638 @ 91.1¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?—
No$482 @ 87.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?—
No$434 @ 94.3¢
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Politics
No$419 @ 53.2¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$250 @ 83.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?—
Yes$206 @ 68.1¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$194 @ 77.7¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?Politics
No$171 @ 85.5¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?—
Yes$170 @ 85.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?—
No$166 @ 12.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in September?—
No$142 @ 91.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?—
No$135 @ 90.0¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?—
Yes$134 @ 89.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?—
No$125 @ 83.4¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$93 @ 93.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$92 @ 92.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$83 @ 83.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?—
No$75 @ 75.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$56 @ 56.0¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?—
Yes$35 @ 7.0¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?—
Yes$9 @ 1.5¢