0xf710…edc9

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf71061cce6d1ab8aaef8f6928a4fdb5dfe15edc9
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.1pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

36% @ 31.8¢

Brier

0.144

Resolved

4058

Avg size

$19

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	39% (338/874)	+13%	874
Politics	44% (37/85)	+20%	85
Geopolitics	30% (3/10)	-54%	10
Sports	57% (4/7)	+82%	7
Tech	50% (3/6)	+186%	6
Economy	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Science	100% (1/1)	+96%	1

Other874 bets
Hit rate
39% (338/874)
ROI
+13%
Politics85 bets
Hit rate
44% (37/85)
ROI
+20%
Geopolitics10 bets
Hit rate
30% (3/10)
ROI
-54%
Sports7 bets
Hit rate
57% (4/7)
ROI
+82%
Tech6 bets
Hit rate
50% (3/6)
ROI
+186%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+96%

Track record

39% hit · 386/985

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$6	2.3¢	Lost
Labour leadership election scheduled by March 31?	Yes	$26	8.9¢	Lost
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?	Yes	$30	4.5¢	Lost
Will PC Principal make a trade during South Park's prediction market episode?	No	$9	72.0¢	Won
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-10?	No	$43	43.0¢	Won
GPT ads by December 31?	Yes	$2	4.9¢	Lost
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	Yes	$10	3.6¢	Lost
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	No	$17	13.2¢	Lost
Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-01-05?	No	$126	63.0¢	Lost
Will anyone say "Polymarket" during South Park's prediction market episode?	No	$9	75.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say UN / United Nations during Netanyahu events on September 29?	No	$8	32.0¢	Lost
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025	No	$84	13.4¢	Lost
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	$8	8.0¢	Lost
Will Kamala Harris attend Dick Cheney's funeral?	No	$32	43.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?	Yes	$27	53.0¢	Won
Kings vs. Hurricanes	Hurricanes	$61	61.0¢	Won
TikTok sale announced by September 30?	Yes	$70	25.8¢	Lost
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-24?	No	$46	46.0¢	Won
Will Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Lost
Will Trump say Palestine during Netanyahu events on September 29?	Yes	$4	32.0¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight, Prelims)	Yousri Belgaroui	$21	42.0¢	Won
Utah State Aggies vs. Villanova Wildcats	Utah State Aggies	$40	40.0¢	Won
Utah State Aggies vs. Villanova Wildcats	Villanova Wildcats	$31	31.0¢	Lost
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines	Tennessee Volunteers	$220	22.0¢	Lost
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?	Yes	$20	4.0¢	Lost
Up Only podcast released by November 30?	No	$41	67.5¢	Won
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?	Yes	$21	38.7¢	Lost
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by November 30?	No	$29	38.0¢	Won
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by November 30?	Yes	$264	45.0¢	Lost
Will between 221 and 222 U.S. House members vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30?	Yes	$8	39.0¢	Won
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	No	$78	39.0¢	Won
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	Yes	$107	73.2¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Border" 5+ times during ballroom dinner on October 15?	Yes	$14	25.1¢	Lost
Will Hanwha Life Esports win LoL Worlds 2025?	Yes	$48	15.7¢	Lost
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?	No	$19	74.0¢	Won
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$31	61.6¢	Lost
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?	No	$8	51.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	$185	10.3¢	Lost
Will "Run Away" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)	Yes	$4	70.0¢	Won
US government shutdown by October 1?	No	$127	18.1¢	Lost
US government shutdown by October 1?	Yes	$126	77.4¢	Won
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)	Saint Denis	$39	77.0¢	Won
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$86	86.0¢	Won
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	$20	80.0¢	Won
Bruins vs. Panthers	Bruins	$23	32.1¢	Lost
Bruins vs. Panthers	Panthers	$53	53.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Gaza" during the 2026 State of the Union address?	No	$4	8.0¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$31	62.0¢	Won
Pepperdine Waves vs. San Diego Toreros: O/U 147.5	Under	$42	42.0¢	Won
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?	No	$43	85.0¢	Won

Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$6 @ 2.3¢
Labour leadership election scheduled by March 31?Lost
Yes$26 @ 8.9¢
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?Lost
Yes$30 @ 4.5¢
Will PC Principal make a trade during South Park's prediction market episode?Won
No$9 @ 72.0¢
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-10?Won
No$43 @ 43.0¢
GPT ads by December 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 4.9¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Lost
Yes$10 @ 3.6¢
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?Lost
No$17 @ 13.2¢
Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-01-05?Lost
No$126 @ 63.0¢
Will anyone say "Polymarket" during South Park's prediction market episode?Lost
No$9 @ 75.0¢
Will Trump say UN / United Nations during Netanyahu events on September 29?Lost
No$8 @ 32.0¢
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025Lost
No$84 @ 13.4¢
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$8 @ 8.0¢
Will Kamala Harris attend Dick Cheney's funeral?Lost
No$32 @ 43.0¢
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?Won
Yes$27 @ 53.0¢
Kings vs. HurricanesWon
Hurricanes$61 @ 61.0¢
TikTok sale announced by September 30?Lost
Yes$70 @ 25.8¢
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-24?Won
No$46 @ 46.0¢
Will Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Will Trump say Palestine during Netanyahu events on September 29?Lost
Yes$4 @ 32.0¢
UFC Fight Night: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight, Prelims)Won
Yousri Belgaroui$21 @ 42.0¢
Utah State Aggies vs. Villanova WildcatsWon
Utah State Aggies$40 @ 40.0¢
Utah State Aggies vs. Villanova WildcatsLost
Villanova Wildcats$31 @ 31.0¢
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan WolverinesLost
Tennessee Volunteers$220 @ 22.0¢
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?Lost
Yes$20 @ 4.0¢
Up Only podcast released by November 30?Won
No$41 @ 67.5¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Lost
Yes$21 @ 38.7¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by November 30?Won
No$29 @ 38.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by November 30?Lost
Yes$264 @ 45.0¢
Will between 221 and 222 U.S. House members vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30?Won
Yes$8 @ 39.0¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Won
No$78 @ 39.0¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Lost
Yes$107 @ 73.2¢
Will Trump say "Border" 5+ times during ballroom dinner on October 15?Lost
Yes$14 @ 25.1¢
Will Hanwha Life Esports win LoL Worlds 2025?Lost
Yes$48 @ 15.7¢
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?Won
No$19 @ 74.0¢
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?Lost
Yes$31 @ 61.6¢
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?Won
No$8 @ 51.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Lost
Yes$185 @ 10.3¢
Will "Run Away" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)Won
Yes$4 @ 70.0¢
US government shutdown by October 1?Lost
No$127 @ 18.1¢
US government shutdown by October 1?Won
Yes$126 @ 77.4¢
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)Won
Saint Denis$39 @ 77.0¢
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
Yes$86 @ 86.0¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
No$20 @ 80.0¢
Bruins vs. PanthersLost
Bruins$23 @ 32.1¢
Bruins vs. PanthersWon
Panthers$53 @ 53.0¢
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Gaza" during the 2026 State of the Union address?Lost
No$4 @ 8.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
Yes$31 @ 62.0¢
Pepperdine Waves vs. San Diego Toreros: O/U 147.5Won
Under$42 @ 42.0¢
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?Won
No$43 @ 85.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Politics	No	$65	13.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$57	57.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$42	42.0¢
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$31	12.3¢
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$29	25.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$29	29.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$20	41.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$18	18.0¢
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$18	22.0¢
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Economy	No	$13	13.0¢
Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$11	69.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$11	7.0¢
Will John Thune be the next US Senate Minority Leader?	Politics	No	$9	62.3¢
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$8	1.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$8	30.0¢
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3	1.0¢
Will the Social Democratic Party (PSD) be included in the next Romanian government?	Politics	No	$3	4.9¢
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$3	1.3¢
Trump insults Anthropic CEO this week?	Politics	Yes	$2	3.4¢
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1	2.7¢
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1	2.7¢
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1	2.7¢
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1	2.7¢
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1	2.7¢
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1	2.7¢
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1	2.7¢
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1	2.7¢
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1	2.7¢
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1	2.7¢
Will Sarah Pochin win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?	Politics	Yes	$0	1.0¢

Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?Politics
No$65 @ 13.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$57 @ 57.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$42 @ 42.0¢
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$31 @ 12.3¢
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?Politics
Yes$29 @ 25.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$29 @ 29.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$20 @ 41.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$18 @ 18.0¢
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?Politics
No$18 @ 22.0¢
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Economy
No$13 @ 13.0¢
Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?Politics
Yes$11 @ 69.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$11 @ 7.0¢
Will John Thune be the next US Senate Minority Leader?Politics
No$9 @ 62.3¢
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$8 @ 1.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
Yes$8 @ 30.0¢
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$3 @ 1.0¢
Will the Social Democratic Party (PSD) be included in the next Romanian government?Politics
No$3 @ 4.9¢
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$3 @ 1.3¢
Trump insults Anthropic CEO this week?Politics
Yes$2 @ 3.4¢
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$1 @ 2.7¢
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$1 @ 2.7¢
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$1 @ 2.7¢
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$1 @ 2.7¢
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$1 @ 2.7¢
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$1 @ 2.7¢
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$1 @ 2.7¢
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$1 @ 2.7¢
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$1 @ 2.7¢
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$1 @ 2.7¢
Will Sarah Pochin win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?Politics
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢