0xf6c9…1c13

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf6c9bf136dd67afb78942ce6f5e9ff64ef031c13
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+14.5pp

ROI

+33%

Win rate

57% @ 43.0¢

Brier

0.191

Resolved

228

Avg size

$162

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	57% (23/40)	+53%	40
Politics	48% (12/25)	+12%	25
Geopolitics	20% (1/5)	-79%	5
Tech	67% (2/3)	+148%	3

Other40 bets
Hit rate
57% (23/40)
ROI
+53%
Politics25 bets
Hit rate
48% (12/25)
ROI
+12%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
-79%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+148%

Track record

52% hit · 38/73

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?	No	$26	75.0¢	Won
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?	No	$1.6k	29.2¢	Won
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	$28	9.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.0k	26.0¢	Lost
Khamenei seen in public by March 1?	No	$93	71.7¢	Won
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by May 1?	No	$104	89.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	No	$126	27.3¢	Lost
Will the US federal government take a stake in GlobalFoundries Inc.?	Yes	$260	70.8¢	Won
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	Yes	$137	25.5¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	No	$81	21.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$248	26.1¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Yes	$247	81.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?	No	$90	30.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$480	23.0¢	Lost
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	Yes	$50	4.2¢	Lost
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	$67	15.9¢	Lost
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?	No	$2.4k	61.2¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?	Yes	$212	57.4¢	Won
Will David Miliband be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?	Yes	$570	16.5¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$377	35.8¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$64	6.4¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026?	Yes	$154	14.2¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$278	37.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	No	$1.9k	61.6¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?	No	$121	44.0¢	Lost
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$41	32.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$4.7k	59.2¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$119	53.3¢	Won
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?	Yes	$486	35.7¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?	Yes	$105	72.6¢	Won
Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$173	59.5¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March?	Yes	$46	27.4¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.0k	23.7¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$1.9k	35.5¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$355	59.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	$340	34.0¢	Lost
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	No	$679	55.0¢	Won
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	$5	7.3¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?	Yes	$53	67.9¢	Lost
Will Trump announce Kyle Diamantas as the next FDA commissioner by December 31?	No	$189	72.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.00T and 2.25T?	Yes	$120	14.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$310	52.9¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?	Yes	$7	3.4¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$628	31.0¢	Lost
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?	No	$62	82.9¢	Won
Will Israel or the US target Fordow nuclear facility?	No	$267	57.8¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$609	79.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	$760	56.4¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?	No	$1.0k	31.4¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	$886	38.0¢	Won

Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Won
No$26 @ 75.0¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?Won
No$1.6k @ 29.2¢
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Lost
Yes$28 @ 9.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 26.0¢
Khamenei seen in public by March 1?Won
No$93 @ 71.7¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by May 1?Won
No$104 @ 89.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Lost
No$126 @ 27.3¢
Will the US federal government take a stake in GlobalFoundries Inc.?Won
Yes$260 @ 70.8¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?Lost
Yes$137 @ 25.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?Lost
No$81 @ 21.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$248 @ 26.1¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026?Won
Yes$247 @ 81.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Lost
No$90 @ 30.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$480 @ 23.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?Lost
Yes$50 @ 4.2¢
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Lost
Yes$67 @ 15.9¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?Won
No$2.4k @ 61.2¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?Won
Yes$212 @ 57.4¢
Will David Miliband be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?Lost
Yes$570 @ 16.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$377 @ 35.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
Yes$64 @ 6.4¢
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026?Lost
Yes$154 @ 14.2¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$278 @ 37.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Won
No$1.9k @ 61.6¢
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?Lost
No$121 @ 44.0¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$41 @ 32.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$4.7k @ 59.2¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$119 @ 53.3¢
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?Won
Yes$486 @ 35.7¢
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?Won
Yes$105 @ 72.6¢
Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$173 @ 59.5¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March?Won
Yes$46 @ 27.4¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 23.7¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$1.9k @ 35.5¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$355 @ 59.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$340 @ 34.0¢
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Won
No$679 @ 55.0¢
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 7.3¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?Lost
Yes$53 @ 67.9¢
Will Trump announce Kyle Diamantas as the next FDA commissioner by December 31?Won
No$189 @ 72.0¢
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.00T and 2.25T?Lost
Yes$120 @ 14.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$310 @ 52.9¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?Lost
Yes$7 @ 3.4¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$628 @ 31.0¢
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?Won
No$62 @ 82.9¢
Will Israel or the US target Fordow nuclear facility?Won
No$267 @ 57.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$609 @ 79.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Lost
Yes$760 @ 56.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?Lost
No$1.0k @ 31.4¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Won
No$886 @ 38.0¢

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