0xf5e8…9fbd

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf5e814660a5a5ac071390a36122e7bc7c1309fbd
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.3pp

ROI

+1299%

Win rate

3% @ 0.4¢

Brier

0.027

Resolved

884

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	1% (1/73)	+808%	73
Tech	0% (0/19)	-100%	19
Other	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Geopolitics	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics73 bets
Hit rate
1% (1/73)
ROI
+808%
Tech19 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/19)
ROI
-100%
Other3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

1% hit · 1/99

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$3	1.0¢	Lost
Will George Simion be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	$1	0.3¢	Lost
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	$8	0.3¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$5	0.1¢	Lost
Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$10	1.7¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$93	0.4¢	Lost
Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?	Yes	$23	0.7¢	Lost
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$13	0.4¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	$8	0.2¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$24	0.7¢	Lost
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$13	0.2¢	Lost
Will Hunor Kelemen be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	$3	0.3¢	Lost
Will xAI have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$6	0.4¢	Lost
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	$3	0.1¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$11	1.1¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$22	1.1¢	Lost
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	$1	0.3¢	Lost
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?	Yes	$8	0.4¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$28	0.4¢	Lost
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%?	Yes	$4	0.2¢	Lost
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$22	2.2¢	Lost
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$12	0.2¢	Lost
Will Dragoș Pîslaru be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	$12	0.5¢	Lost
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	$2	0.6¢	Lost
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	$3	0.1¢	Lost
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	$19	0.3¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	$5	0.2¢	Lost
Will Calin Georgescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	$13	0.3¢	Lost
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	$11	0.2¢	Lost
Will Anca Dragu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will Victor Ponta be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	$4	0.2¢	Lost
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	$3	0.4¢	Lost
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	$35	0.3¢	Lost
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	$5	0.3¢	Lost
Will Cătălin Drulă be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	$3	0.1¢	Lost
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	$47	4.2¢	Lost
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	$3	0.4¢	Lost
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	$9	0.6¢	Lost
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will Rosen Zhelyazkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	$16	0.2¢	Lost
Will Ionuț Dumitru be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	$2	0.3¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	$6	0.4¢	Lost
Will Vasile Dîncu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	$7	0.3¢	Lost
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	$43	0.9¢	Lost
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	$6	0.2¢	Lost
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$4	0.1¢	Lost
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26?	Yes	$1	0.3¢	Lost

Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.0¢
Will George Simion be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.3¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.1¢
Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$10 @ 1.7¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$93 @ 0.4¢
Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?Lost
Yes$23 @ 0.7¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$13 @ 0.4¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.2¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$24 @ 0.7¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$13 @ 0.2¢
Will Hunor Kelemen be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.3¢
Will xAI have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.4¢
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.1¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$11 @ 1.1¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$22 @ 1.1¢
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.4¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$28 @ 0.4¢
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.2¢
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$22 @ 2.2¢
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
Yes$12 @ 0.2¢
Will Dragoș Pîslaru be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Lost
Yes$12 @ 0.5¢
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.6¢
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.1¢
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Lost
Yes$19 @ 0.3¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.2¢
Will Calin Georgescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Lost
Yes$13 @ 0.3¢
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Lost
Yes$11 @ 0.2¢
Will Anca Dragu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will Victor Ponta be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.2¢
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.4¢
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Lost
Yes$35 @ 0.3¢
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.3¢
Will Cătălin Drulă be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.1¢
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Lost
Yes$47 @ 4.2¢
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.4¢
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.6¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will Rosen Zhelyazkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$16 @ 0.2¢
Will Ionuț Dumitru be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.3¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.4¢
Will Vasile Dîncu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 0.3¢
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Lost
Yes$43 @ 0.9¢
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.2¢
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.1¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$146	1.8¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Tech	Yes	$140	0.6¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Politics	Yes	$140	15.6¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$137	3.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Geopolitics	Yes	$136	3.0¢
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Politics	Yes	$132	0.9¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$125	9.6¢
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$121	1.8¢
Netanyahu out by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$119	1.8¢
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$117	1.9¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$108	3.5¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$100	3.9¢
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$99	1.2¢
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Politics	No	$98	6.3¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$98	1.6¢
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$96	5.7¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$95	1.9¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$93	8.9¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$92	1.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$84	21.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$80	20.1¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	No	$80	20.1¢
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$79	0.5¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$78	3.3¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$76	0.3¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$75	1.8¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Tech	Yes	$73	0.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	—	Yes	$72	12.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?	—	No	$71	8.3¢
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$70	1.2¢

Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$146 @ 1.8¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech
Yes$140 @ 0.6¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Politics
Yes$140 @ 15.6¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$137 @ 3.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
Yes$136 @ 3.0¢
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Politics
Yes$132 @ 0.9¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$125 @ 9.6¢
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$121 @ 1.8¢
Netanyahu out by June 30?Politics
Yes$119 @ 1.8¢
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Politics
Yes$117 @ 1.9¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics
Yes$108 @ 3.5¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Politics
Yes$100 @ 3.9¢
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Politics
Yes$99 @ 1.2¢
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Politics
No$98 @ 6.3¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$98 @ 1.6¢
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$96 @ 5.7¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Politics
Yes$95 @ 1.9¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?Politics
Yes$93 @ 8.9¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Politics
Yes$92 @ 1.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$84 @ 21.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$80 @ 20.1¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
No$80 @ 20.1¢
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?Politics
Yes$79 @ 0.5¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$78 @ 3.3¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?Politics
Yes$76 @ 0.3¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Politics
Yes$75 @ 1.8¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech
Yes$73 @ 0.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?—
Yes$72 @ 12.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?—
No$71 @ 8.3¢
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$70 @ 1.2¢