0xf454…7ecc

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf4544ad911122d6abcafede027c01671e3d77ecc
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+15.0pp

ROI

+116%

Win rate

31% @ 16.1¢

Brier

0.150

Resolved

351

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	30% (14/47)	+141%	47
Politics	7% (2/30)	+34%	30
Geopolitics	0% (0/8)	-100%	8
Sports	0% (0/5)	-100%	5

Other47 bets
Hit rate
30% (14/47)
ROI
+141%
Politics30 bets
Hit rate
7% (2/30)
ROI
+34%
Geopolitics8 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/8)
ROI
-100%
Sports5 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/5)
ROI
-100%

Track record

18% hit · 16/90

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$6	0.8¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?	No	$1	2.2¢	Lost
Thunder vs. Lakers	Lakers	$0	0.2¢	Lost
JD Vance out as VP by June 30?	Yes	$1	1.6¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.9¢	Lost
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Yes	$3	4.8¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$20	32.5¢	Won
Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	$5	6.5¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$9	0.5¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	Yes	$3	1.2¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$17	41.8¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$9	17.6¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$27	77.1¢	Lost
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	Yes	$0	0.8¢	Lost
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	$3	26.0¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	$33	11.3¢	Won
Xi Jinping out by June 30?	Yes	$5	3.4¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	Yes	$15	11.8¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$28	12.9¢	Lost
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$2	25.0¢	Lost
Pistons vs. Cavaliers	Pistons	$3	17.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$3	2.7¢	Lost
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?	No	$1	10.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	$4	6.4¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	6.0¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	$7	33.5¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in May 2026?	Yes	$2	5.5¢	Lost
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	$6	2.4¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	$2	8.0¢	Lost
Will Hezbollah disarm by April 30?	Yes	$2	0.7¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$20	82.7¢	Won
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026?	Yes	$2	0.8¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$2	0.3¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost
76ers vs. Celtics	76ers	$2	0.9¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	$1	2.5¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.5¢	Lost
Raptors vs. Cavaliers	Raptors	$1	1.7¢	Lost
Lakers vs. Rockets	Rockets	$0	2.0¢	Lost
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs	Cloud Rising	$2	2.5¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$11	37.3¢	Lost
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$3	0.8¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	$19	6.8¢	Lost
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner	PlayTime	$2	1.9¢	Lost
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	$3	3.2¢	Lost
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	3.7¢	Lost

Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?Lost
No$1 @ 2.2¢
Thunder vs. LakersLost
Lakers$0 @ 0.2¢
JD Vance out as VP by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.9¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 4.8¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$20 @ 32.5¢
Will Putin visit China by May 31?Lost
No$5 @ 6.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.2¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$17 @ 41.8¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$9 @ 17.6¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$27 @ 77.1¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Won
Yes$3 @ 26.0¢
Will Trump visit China by April 30?Won
No$33 @ 11.3¢
Xi Jinping out by June 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 3.4¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Lost
Yes$15 @ 11.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$28 @ 12.9¢
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$2 @ 25.0¢
Pistons vs. CavaliersLost
Pistons$3 @ 17.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 2.7¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?Lost
No$1 @ 10.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Lost
No$4 @ 6.4¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Lost
No$1 @ 1.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Won
Yes$7 @ 33.5¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in May 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 5.5¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Lost
No$6 @ 2.4¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 8.0¢
Will Hezbollah disarm by April 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.7¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$20 @ 82.7¢
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
76ers vs. CelticsLost
76ers$2 @ 0.9¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.5¢
Raptors vs. CavaliersLost
Raptors$1 @ 1.7¢
Lakers vs. RocketsLost
Rockets$0 @ 2.0¢
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier PlayoffsLost
Cloud Rising$2 @ 2.5¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$11 @ 37.3¢
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Lost
Yes$19 @ 6.8¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 WinnerLost
PlayTime$2 @ 1.9¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.2¢
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Geopolitics	Yes	$116	19.9¢
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$87	14.5¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$67	16.8¢
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	Yes	$33	11.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$32	20.3¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$32	25.9¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$24	34.7¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$22	11.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$21	70.0¢
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$14	16.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Politics	Yes	$14	40.8¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$13	5.0¢
US x China tariff agreement by June 30?	—	Yes	$12	7.8¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$11	10.7¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$10	12.6¢
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$9	14.1¢
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$6	4.8¢
JD Vance out as VP by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$5	9.0¢
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4	18.5¢
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$4	7.0¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Politics	No	$4	10.0¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$4	3.1¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$3	4.8¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$3	12.8¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$3	3.2¢
China coup attempt before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$3	3.1¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$3	27.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$2	8.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1	6.0¢
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$1	1.8¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
Yes$116 @ 19.9¢
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?Politics
Yes$87 @ 14.5¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics
Yes$67 @ 16.8¢
China x Japan military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
Yes$33 @ 11.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
Yes$32 @ 20.3¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Politics
Yes$32 @ 25.9¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$24 @ 34.7¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
Yes$22 @ 11.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$21 @ 70.0¢
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?Politics
Yes$14 @ 16.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Politics
Yes$14 @ 40.8¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Politics
Yes$13 @ 5.0¢
US x China tariff agreement by June 30?—
Yes$12 @ 7.8¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$11 @ 10.7¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$10 @ 12.6¢
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?Politics
Yes$9 @ 14.1¢
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$6 @ 4.8¢
JD Vance out as VP by December 31?Politics
Yes$5 @ 9.0¢
Cuban regime falls in 2026?Politics
Yes$4 @ 18.5¢
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$4 @ 7.0¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?Politics
No$4 @ 10.0¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?Politics
Yes$4 @ 3.1¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Politics
Yes$3 @ 4.8¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027?Politics
Yes$3 @ 12.8¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Politics
Yes$3 @ 3.2¢
China coup attempt before 2027?Politics
Yes$3 @ 3.1¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics
Yes$3 @ 27.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Geopolitics
Yes$2 @ 8.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?Politics
Yes$1 @ 1.8¢