0xf454…7ecc

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf4544ad911122d6abcafede027c01671e3d77ecc
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.6pp

ROI

+71%

Win rate

20% @ 14.5¢

Brier

0.115

Resolved

581

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	23% (15/65)	+136%	65
Politics	10% (5/48)	+47%	48
Sports	13% (2/15)	-63%	15
Geopolitics	0% (0/11)	-100%	11

Other65 bets
Hit rate
23% (15/65)
ROI
+136%
Politics48 bets
Hit rate
10% (5/48)
ROI
+47%
Sports15 bets
Hit rate
13% (2/15)
ROI
-63%
Geopolitics11 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/11)
ROI
-100%

Track record

16% hit · 22/139

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	No	$10	6.0¢	Lost
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$6	0.8¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?	No	$1	2.2¢	Lost
Thunder vs. Lakers	Lakers	$0	0.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.9¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$4	12.7¢	Lost
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	Yes	$1	25.0¢	Lost
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Yes	$3	4.8¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$20	32.5¢	Won
Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	$5	6.5¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$9	0.5¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	Yes	$3	1.2¢	Lost
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	$3	3.9¢	Lost
Rockets vs. Lakers	Lakers	$1	1.7¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$17	41.8¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$9	17.6¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	$2	1.8¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$27	77.1¢	Lost
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	Yes	$0	0.8¢	Lost
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	$3	26.0¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	$33	11.3¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	$1	2.3¢	Won
Xi Jinping out by June 30?	Yes	$5	3.4¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	Yes	$15	11.8¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$28	12.9¢	Lost
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$2	25.0¢	Lost
Pistons vs. Cavaliers	Pistons	$3	17.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$3	2.7¢	Lost
Knicks vs. Hawks	Hawks	$0	0.4¢	Lost
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?	No	$1	10.0¢	Lost
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Yes	$2	3.2¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	$4	6.4¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	6.0¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	$7	33.5¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in May 2026?	Yes	$2	5.5¢	Lost
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	$6	2.4¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	$2	8.0¢	Lost
Will Hezbollah disarm by April 30?	Yes	$2	0.7¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$20	82.7¢	Won
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026?	Yes	$2	0.8¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$2	0.3¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost
76ers vs. Celtics	76ers	$2	0.9¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	$1	2.5¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.5¢	Lost
Raptors vs. Cavaliers	Raptors	$1	1.7¢	Lost
Lakers vs. Rockets	Rockets	$0	2.0¢	Lost

Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?Lost
No$10 @ 6.0¢
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?Lost
No$1 @ 2.2¢
Thunder vs. LakersLost
Lakers$0 @ 0.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.9¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$4 @ 12.7¢
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?Lost
Yes$1 @ 25.0¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 4.8¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$20 @ 32.5¢
Will Putin visit China by May 31?Lost
No$5 @ 6.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.2¢
Knicks vs. CavaliersLost
Cavaliers$3 @ 3.9¢
Rockets vs. LakersLost
Lakers$1 @ 1.7¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$17 @ 41.8¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$9 @ 17.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 1.8¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$27 @ 77.1¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Won
Yes$3 @ 26.0¢
Will Trump visit China by April 30?Won
No$33 @ 11.3¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Won
No$1 @ 2.3¢
Xi Jinping out by June 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 3.4¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Lost
Yes$15 @ 11.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$28 @ 12.9¢
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$2 @ 25.0¢
Pistons vs. CavaliersLost
Pistons$3 @ 17.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 2.7¢
Knicks vs. HawksLost
Hawks$0 @ 0.4¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?Lost
No$1 @ 10.0¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.2¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Lost
No$4 @ 6.4¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Lost
No$1 @ 1.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Won
Yes$7 @ 33.5¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in May 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 5.5¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Lost
No$6 @ 2.4¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 8.0¢
Will Hezbollah disarm by April 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.7¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$20 @ 82.7¢
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
76ers vs. CelticsLost
76ers$2 @ 0.9¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.5¢
Raptors vs. CavaliersLost
Raptors$1 @ 1.7¢
Lakers vs. RocketsLost
Rockets$0 @ 2.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$93	10.3¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$81	10.6¢
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	Yes	$42	7.7¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Politics	No	$37	5.9¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$32	20.3¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$32	25.9¢
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$29	10.8¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$28	30.9¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$25	10.6¢
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$25	12.6¢
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$25	48.8¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$20	78.3¢
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Geopolitics	Yes	$16	8.4¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$16	10.1¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	Politics	No	$14	2.2¢
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$12	5.7¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	No	$12	41.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$9	44.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$8	3.2¢
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$6	3.5¢
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5	16.0¢
Will Connie Chan win the CA-11 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$5	29.0¢
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$5	4.7¢
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of summit?	Politics	Yes	$5	2.1¢
Russia coup attempt in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4	6.5¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$3	12.8¢
China coup attempt before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$3	3.1¢
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$2	4.5¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	Politics	No	$1	0.6¢
Will Zdravko Ponoš win the next Serbia presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1	1.2¢

US takes Panama Canal before 2027?Politics
Yes$93 @ 10.3¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics
Yes$81 @ 10.6¢
China x Japan military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
Yes$42 @ 7.7¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?Politics
No$37 @ 5.9¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
Yes$32 @ 20.3¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Politics
Yes$32 @ 25.9¢
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?Politics
Yes$29 @ 10.8¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$28 @ 30.9¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
Yes$25 @ 10.6¢
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?Politics
Yes$25 @ 12.6¢
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by December 31?Politics
Yes$25 @ 48.8¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$20 @ 78.3¢
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?Geopolitics
Yes$16 @ 8.4¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$16 @ 10.1¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?Politics
No$14 @ 2.2¢
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$12 @ 5.7¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
No$12 @ 41.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$9 @ 44.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Politics
Yes$8 @ 3.2¢
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$6 @ 3.5¢
Cuban regime falls in 2026?Politics
Yes$5 @ 16.0¢
Will Connie Chan win the CA-11 House seat?Politics
Yes$5 @ 29.0¢
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30?Politics
Yes$5 @ 4.7¢
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of summit?Politics
Yes$5 @ 2.1¢
Russia coup attempt in 2026?Politics
Yes$4 @ 6.5¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027?Politics
Yes$3 @ 12.8¢
China coup attempt before 2027?Politics
Yes$3 @ 3.1¢
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?Politics
Yes$2 @ 4.5¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?Politics
No$1 @ 0.6¢
Will Zdravko Ponoš win the next Serbia presidential election?Politics
Yes$1 @ 1.2¢