0xf42f…a6a7

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf42f4a4211d058cd109d503cf13f7bcdfc82a6a7
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.3pp

ROI

+12%

Win rate

56% @ 48.5¢

Brier

0.161

Resolved

5193

Avg size

$110

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	55% (219/396)	+9%	396
Politics	56% (38/68)	+20%	68
Geopolitics	75% (15/20)	+3%	20
Crypto	100% (3/3)	+55%	3
Sports	50% (1/2)	-35%	2

Other396 bets
Hit rate
55% (219/396)
ROI
+9%
Politics68 bets
Hit rate
56% (38/68)
ROI
+20%
Geopolitics20 bets
Hit rate
75% (15/20)
ROI
+3%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+55%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-35%

Track record

56% hit · 276/489

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?	Yes	$1.6k	45.7¢	Lost
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?	No	$2.2k	72.0¢	Lost
Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?	No	$266	28.9¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$450	45.0¢	Won
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?	No	$392	71.1¢	Won
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during WEF Address on January 21?	No	$152	76.0¢	Lost
Will Nepali Congress win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?	Yes	$232	21.3¢	Lost
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by November 30?	No	$323	72.8¢	Won
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30?	No	$730	73.0¢	Lost
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$33	58.1¢	Lost
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	No	$317	78.2¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$264	88.0¢	Won
US tariff revenue up in Q3 2025?	No	$7	2.0¢	Lost
Will "Run Away" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)	Yes	$167	84.6¢	Won
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$608	7.5¢	Lost
Will "Skyscraper Live" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 27, 2026)	No	$36	81.3¢	Lost
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	$1.3k	64.7¢	Won
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	$1.6k	82.2¢	Won
Will Trump say "AI" or "Crypto" during the Hanukkah Reception event on Tuesday?	No	$325	83.8¢	Won
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	No	$261	87.0¢	Won
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?	No	$700	70.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$13.2k	27.5¢	Lost
Will André Ventura win more than 26% of votes in the first round?	No	$82	74.0¢	Won
Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)	Yes	$343	83.8¢	Lost
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	No	$184	33.1¢	Won
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	Yes	$223	75.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" while addressing the nation on December 17?	No	$259	86.3¢	Won
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?	Yes	$243	81.0¢	Won
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	No	$422	80.4¢	Won
Will "Run Away" be the top global Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)	Yes	$483	18.2¢	Lost
Will "The Addams Family" be the top global Netflix movie this week?	Yes	$163	72.1¢	Lost
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	$622	56.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get between 33 and 34 million views on day 1?	Yes	$32	84.0¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$3.9k	77.5¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$2.1k	71.3¢	Won
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	No	$557	83.5¢	Won
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?	Yes	$248	76.9¢	Won
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$2.1k	3.6¢	Lost
Will "Davos" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	Yes	$142	71.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?	No	$148	74.0¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$720	72.0¢	Lost
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?	No	$810	81.0¢	Won
Will Biagio Simonetti win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election?	Yes	$121	3.0¢	Lost
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 5–10%?	Yes	$233	14.1¢	Won
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?	No	$181	87.0¢	Won
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?	No	$116	81.8¢	Won
Will George Santos attend the 2026 State of the Union address?	No	$562	53.5¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?	Yes	$643	24.4¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$414	85.2¢	Won
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?	Yes	$744	73.0¢	Won

Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?Lost
Yes$1.6k @ 45.7¢
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?Lost
No$2.2k @ 72.0¢
Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?Lost
No$266 @ 28.9¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$450 @ 45.0¢
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?Won
No$392 @ 71.1¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during WEF Address on January 21?Lost
No$152 @ 76.0¢
Will Nepali Congress win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?Lost
Yes$232 @ 21.3¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by November 30?Won
No$323 @ 72.8¢
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30?Lost
No$730 @ 73.0¢
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?Lost
Yes$33 @ 58.1¢
Will France strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$317 @ 78.2¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$264 @ 88.0¢
US tariff revenue up in Q3 2025?Lost
No$7 @ 2.0¢
Will "Run Away" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)Won
Yes$167 @ 84.6¢
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$608 @ 7.5¢
Will "Skyscraper Live" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 27, 2026)Lost
No$36 @ 81.3¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Won
No$1.3k @ 64.7¢
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
No$1.6k @ 82.2¢
Will Trump say "AI" or "Crypto" during the Hanukkah Reception event on Tuesday?Won
No$325 @ 83.8¢
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?Won
No$261 @ 87.0¢
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?Lost
No$700 @ 70.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$13.2k @ 27.5¢
Will André Ventura win more than 26% of votes in the first round?Won
No$82 @ 74.0¢
Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)Lost
Yes$343 @ 83.8¢
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Won
No$184 @ 33.1¢
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Lost
Yes$223 @ 75.9¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" while addressing the nation on December 17?Won
No$259 @ 86.3¢
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?Won
Yes$243 @ 81.0¢
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$422 @ 80.4¢
Will "Run Away" be the top global Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)Lost
Yes$483 @ 18.2¢
Will "The Addams Family" be the top global Netflix movie this week?Lost
Yes$163 @ 72.1¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
No$622 @ 56.0¢
Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get between 33 and 34 million views on day 1?Won
Yes$32 @ 84.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$3.9k @ 77.5¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$2.1k @ 71.3¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$557 @ 83.5¢
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?Won
Yes$248 @ 76.9¢
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$2.1k @ 3.6¢
Will "Davos" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Won
Yes$142 @ 71.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?Won
No$148 @ 74.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$720 @ 72.0¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?Won
No$810 @ 81.0¢
Will Biagio Simonetti win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election?Lost
Yes$121 @ 3.0¢
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 5–10%?Won
Yes$233 @ 14.1¢
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?Won
No$181 @ 87.0¢
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?Won
No$116 @ 81.8¢
Will George Santos attend the 2026 State of the Union address?Won
No$562 @ 53.5¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?Lost
Yes$643 @ 24.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$414 @ 85.2¢
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?Won
Yes$744 @ 73.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$11.9k	75.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$7.0k	86.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$5.2k	66.1¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$3.5k	71.9¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$2.6k	59.7¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.9k	77.2¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.7k	84.0¢
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	Culture	No	$1.7k	84.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1.6k	78.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.3k	50.2¢
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.3k	83.7¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	68.5¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$1.0k	86.3¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$936	50.4¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$870	87.0¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Politics	No	$595	63.8¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$521	80.2¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	Sports	No	$430	86.0¢
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$311	73.1¢
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?	Politics	No	$307	8.4¢
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?	Politics	No	$252	84.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$203	29.0¢
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$92	10.3¢
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$90	9.0¢
Will Lydie Massard be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$24	2.8¢
Will Benjamin Lucas-Lundy be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$24	2.8¢
Will Clémentine Autain be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$15	1.8¢
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?	Politics	No	$5	79.0¢
Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?	Tech	Yes	$0	0.0¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$11.9k @ 75.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$7.0k @ 86.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$5.2k @ 66.1¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$3.5k @ 71.9¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$2.6k @ 59.7¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
No$1.9k @ 77.2¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.7k @ 84.0¢
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Culture
No$1.7k @ 84.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$1.6k @ 78.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.3k @ 50.2¢
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.3k @ 83.7¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 68.5¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$1.0k @ 86.3¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$936 @ 50.4¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$870 @ 87.0¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?Politics
No$595 @ 63.8¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$521 @ 80.2¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?Sports
No$430 @ 86.0¢
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Geopolitics
No$311 @ 73.1¢
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?Politics
No$307 @ 8.4¢
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics
No$252 @ 84.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$203 @ 29.0¢
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31?Politics
Yes$92 @ 10.3¢
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$90 @ 9.0¢
Will Lydie Massard be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$24 @ 2.8¢
Will Benjamin Lucas-Lundy be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$24 @ 2.8¢
Will Clémentine Autain be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$15 @ 1.8¢
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?Politics
No$5 @ 79.0¢
Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Tech
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢