0xf42f…a6a7

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf42f4a4211d058cd109d503cf13f7bcdfc82a6a7
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.6pp

ROI

+12%

Win rate

56% @ 49.9¢

Brier

0.163

Resolved

5088

Avg size

$119

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (223/442)	+5%	442
Politics	58% (78/135)	+19%	135
Geopolitics	78% (18/23)	+5%	23
Tech	100% (3/3)	+87%	3
Sports	67% (2/3)	-28%	3
Crypto	100% (3/3)	+55%	3
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other442 bets
Hit rate
50% (223/442)
ROI
+5%
Politics135 bets
Hit rate
58% (78/135)
ROI
+19%
Geopolitics23 bets
Hit rate
78% (18/23)
ROI
+5%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+87%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-28%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+55%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

54% hit · 327/610

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.4k	70.0¢	Won
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	Yes	$4.1k	48.8¢	Won
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026?	Yes	$2.0k	55.5¢	Won
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	$122	24.3¢	Lost
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?	No	$110	24.0¢	Lost
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?	Yes	$15	1.4¢	Lost
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?	Yes	$625	93.0¢	Lost
Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$176	1.6¢	Lost
Will Bernie Sanders say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Fighting Oligarchy speech on August 24?	Yes	$18	6.1¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$274	98.9¢	Lost
MicroStrategy purchases >4000 BTC September 2-8?	No	$73	14.3¢	Lost
Will the red bloc win more than 92 seats in the Norwegian election?	Yes	$68	20.6¢	Lost
Will Trump make no endorsement for NYC Mayor?	Yes	$59	84.0¢	Lost
Will Fernando Olivera win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$208	1.6¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Switzerland by November 30?	No	$31	56.4¢	Lost
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$164	1.6¢	Lost
Christian Democratic Party (KrF) wins 4% or more of vote in Norwegian election?	No	$13	31.0¢	Lost
Will Irfaan Ali win the 2025 Guyana presidential election?	No	$20	8.0¢	Lost
Will Andrew Cuomo win Queens in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?	Yes	$190	78.6¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Yablunivka before August?	No	$105	42.0¢	Lost
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$208	1.6¢	Lost
Will Apple release AirTag 2 this year?	Yes	$11	51.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Nvidia" during his AI speech on July 23?	No	$19	37.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?	Yes	$0	34.7¢	Lost
Will MrBeast raise $50m or more by midnight?	Yes	$24	6.0¢	Lost
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16?	Yes	$2.1k	71.0¢	Lost
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$208	1.6¢	Lost
Israel strikes Syria by Friday?	Yes	$7	8.0¢	Lost
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$161	1.6¢	Lost
Will Israel strike 1 country in November 2025?	Yes	$392	94.5¢	Lost
Will turnout be between 78% and 81% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?	No	$226	70.5¢	Lost
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$208	1.6¢	Lost
Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$208	1.6¢	Lost
Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$208	1.6¢	Lost
Will Jhonny Fernández win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?	Yes	$8	0.8¢	Lost
Will Powell say "Chair" during Jackson Hole speech on August 22?	No	$83	64.6¢	Lost
Will the red bloc win between 90 and 92 seats in the Norwegian election?	Yes	$14	27.0¢	Lost
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$154	1.6¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?	Yes	$2.8k	90.0¢	Lost
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?	Yes	$11	1.1¢	Lost
Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	No	$455	91.0¢	Lost
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$208	1.6¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 14?	No	$191	95.3¢	Lost
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.5-3.75 in June?	Yes	$46	21.0¢	Lost
Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?	Yes	$82	8.2¢	Lost
Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$208	1.6¢	Lost
Will a dozen eggs be below $3.50 in June?	Yes	$31	11.0¢	Lost
Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 5–10%?	Yes	$24	14.0¢	Lost
Will Powell say "Variable" during October press conference?	No	$51	37.6¢	Lost
Will valid votes be between 5.8-6 million in Bolivia election?	Yes	$147	21.0¢	Lost

Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 70.0¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?Won
Yes$4.1k @ 48.8¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 55.5¢
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$122 @ 24.3¢
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?Lost
No$110 @ 24.0¢
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?Lost
Yes$15 @ 1.4¢
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?Lost
Yes$625 @ 93.0¢
Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$176 @ 1.6¢
Will Bernie Sanders say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Fighting Oligarchy speech on August 24?Lost
Yes$18 @ 6.1¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$274 @ 98.9¢
MicroStrategy purchases >4000 BTC September 2-8?Lost
No$73 @ 14.3¢
Will the red bloc win more than 92 seats in the Norwegian election?Lost
Yes$68 @ 20.6¢
Will Trump make no endorsement for NYC Mayor?Lost
Yes$59 @ 84.0¢
Will Fernando Olivera win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$208 @ 1.6¢
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Switzerland by November 30?Lost
No$31 @ 56.4¢
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$164 @ 1.6¢
Christian Democratic Party (KrF) wins 4% or more of vote in Norwegian election?Lost
No$13 @ 31.0¢
Will Irfaan Ali win the 2025 Guyana presidential election?Lost
No$20 @ 8.0¢
Will Andrew Cuomo win Queens in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?Lost
Yes$190 @ 78.6¢
Will Russia capture Yablunivka before August?Lost
No$105 @ 42.0¢
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$208 @ 1.6¢
Will Apple release AirTag 2 this year?Lost
Yes$11 @ 51.0¢
Will Trump say "Nvidia" during his AI speech on July 23?Lost
No$19 @ 37.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?Lost
Yes$0 @ 34.7¢
Will MrBeast raise $50m or more by midnight?Lost
Yes$24 @ 6.0¢
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16?Lost
Yes$2.1k @ 71.0¢
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$208 @ 1.6¢
Israel strikes Syria by Friday?Lost
Yes$7 @ 8.0¢
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$161 @ 1.6¢
Will Israel strike 1 country in November 2025?Lost
Yes$392 @ 94.5¢
Will turnout be between 78% and 81% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?Lost
No$226 @ 70.5¢
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$208 @ 1.6¢
Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$208 @ 1.6¢
Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$208 @ 1.6¢
Will Jhonny Fernández win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.8¢
Will Powell say "Chair" during Jackson Hole speech on August 22?Lost
No$83 @ 64.6¢
Will the red bloc win between 90 and 92 seats in the Norwegian election?Lost
Yes$14 @ 27.0¢
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$154 @ 1.6¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?Lost
Yes$2.8k @ 90.0¢
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?Lost
Yes$11 @ 1.1¢
Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?Lost
No$455 @ 91.0¢
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$208 @ 1.6¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 14?Lost
No$191 @ 95.3¢
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.5-3.75 in June?Lost
Yes$46 @ 21.0¢
Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?Lost
Yes$82 @ 8.2¢
Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$208 @ 1.6¢
Will a dozen eggs be below $3.50 in June?Lost
Yes$31 @ 11.0¢
Will Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga win by 5–10%?Lost
Yes$24 @ 14.0¢
Will Powell say "Variable" during October press conference?Lost
No$51 @ 37.6¢
Will valid votes be between 5.8-6 million in Bolivia election?Lost
Yes$147 @ 21.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$12.2k	59.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Geopolitics	Yes	$4.8k	90.4¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$4.6k	93.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	—	No	$3.9k	77.5¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	Culture	No	$3.7k	92.6¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?	—	Yes	$3.6k	78.3¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?	—	Yes	$2.8k	90.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	—	Yes	$2.3k	25.4¢
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16?	—	Yes	$2.1k	71.0¢
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	Culture	No	$1.7k	84.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1.6k	23.4¢
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1.5k	9.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1.5k	73.0¢
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	—	Yes	$1.4k	51.7¢
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	—	No	$1.3k	48.2¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Politics	No	$1.1k	75.3¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	—	No	$979	81.6¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$870	87.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?	—	No	$870	58.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	Geopolitics	Yes	$820	82.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$725	72.5¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	—	No	$711	59.3¢
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31?	Politics	No	$700	70.0¢
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?	—	Yes	$625	93.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	—	Yes	$622	15.6¢
Brown University shooter arrested by December 31?	—	Yes	$608	64.3¢
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	—	No	$580	58.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$535	21.1¢
Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	—	No	$455	91.0¢
Will Abigail Anderson be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?	Culture	Yes	$453	73.8¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$12.2k @ 59.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Geopolitics
Yes$4.8k @ 90.4¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$4.6k @ 93.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?—
No$3.9k @ 77.5¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Culture
No$3.7k @ 92.6¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?—
Yes$3.6k @ 78.3¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?—
Yes$2.8k @ 90.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?—
Yes$2.3k @ 25.4¢
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16?—
Yes$2.1k @ 71.0¢
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Culture
No$1.7k @ 84.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Geopolitics
Yes$1.6k @ 23.4¢
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Politics
Yes$1.5k @ 9.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Geopolitics
Yes$1.5k @ 73.0¢
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?—
Yes$1.4k @ 51.7¢
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?—
No$1.3k @ 48.2¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
No$1.1k @ 75.3¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?—
No$979 @ 81.6¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$870 @ 87.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?—
No$870 @ 58.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?Geopolitics
Yes$820 @ 82.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$725 @ 72.5¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?—
No$711 @ 59.3¢
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31?Politics
No$700 @ 70.0¢
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?—
Yes$625 @ 93.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?—
Yes$622 @ 15.6¢
Brown University shooter arrested by December 31?—
Yes$608 @ 64.3¢
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?—
No$580 @ 58.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$535 @ 21.1¢
Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?—
No$455 @ 91.0¢
Will Abigail Anderson be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?Culture
Yes$453 @ 73.8¢