0xf27d…e6d3

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf27de6607cbd15be1133619b9807ff63fb86e6d3
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.1pp

ROI

+16%

Win rate

37% @ 31.6¢

Brier

0.185

Resolved

613

Avg size

$43

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	45% (20/44)	+25%	44
Politics	12% (2/17)	-36%	17
Crypto	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other44 bets
Hit rate
45% (20/44)
ROI
+25%
Politics17 bets
Hit rate
12% (2/17)
ROI
-36%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

33% hit · 22/66

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?	Yes	$107	17.7¢	Lost
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	$35	11.2¢	Lost
Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$140	7.0¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$479	24.4¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$410	13.7¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$313	30.5¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	$157	25.6¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$35	0.8¢	Lost
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	$214	37.7¢	Won
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?	No	$280	56.0¢	Won
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?	Yes	$96	24.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$410	41.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$1.5k	43.0¢	Won
Todd Blanche nomination withdrawn by August 31?	Yes	$6	6.1¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$1.3k	45.8¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$233	47.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	No	$56	23.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	Yes	$1.7k	37.1¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	No	$484	48.4¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$1.1k	35.2¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$359	50.9¢	Won
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?	No	$13	1.8¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	$519	17.3¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	No	$1.2k	43.1¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	Yes	$100	50.0¢	Won
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?	No	$216	15.6¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?	No	$267	48.7¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	Yes	$516	43.0¢	Won
Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$9	15.0¢	Lost
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$140	9.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	$444	18.7¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	Yes	$313	20.6¢	Lost
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?	No	$1.3k	46.8¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?	No	$383	54.8¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	No	$706	41.6¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	$470	30.7¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$450	29.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?	No	$169	45.1¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?	Yes	$480	24.0¢	Lost
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	No	$414	62.1¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	No	$943	47.2¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	Yes	$49	22.2¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?	Yes	$609	55.4¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	$55	2.9¢	Lost
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?	Yes	$184	60.2¢	Won
Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$6	5.7¢	Lost
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$329	36.5¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	$1.2k	49.2¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$391	39.0¢	Lost

Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?Lost
Yes$107 @ 17.7¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
Yes$35 @ 11.2¢
Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$140 @ 7.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$479 @ 24.4¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$410 @ 13.7¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
No$313 @ 30.5¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Lost
No$157 @ 25.6¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$35 @ 0.8¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Won
No$214 @ 37.7¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?Won
No$280 @ 56.0¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?Lost
Yes$96 @ 24.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$410 @ 41.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$1.5k @ 43.0¢
Todd Blanche nomination withdrawn by August 31?Lost
Yes$6 @ 6.1¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
No$1.3k @ 45.8¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$233 @ 47.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?Won
No$56 @ 23.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?Lost
Yes$1.7k @ 37.1¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Won
No$484 @ 48.4¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$1.1k @ 35.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$359 @ 50.9¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?Lost
No$13 @ 1.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
Yes$519 @ 17.3¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Lost
No$1.2k @ 43.1¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Won
Yes$100 @ 50.0¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?Lost
No$216 @ 15.6¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Lost
No$267 @ 48.7¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Won
Yes$516 @ 43.0¢
Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?Lost
Yes$9 @ 15.0¢
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
Yes$140 @ 9.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$444 @ 18.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?Lost
Yes$313 @ 20.6¢
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?Won
No$1.3k @ 46.8¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?Lost
No$383 @ 54.8¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Lost
No$706 @ 41.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$470 @ 30.7¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$450 @ 29.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?Won
No$169 @ 45.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?Lost
Yes$480 @ 24.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Won
No$414 @ 62.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Won
No$943 @ 47.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$49 @ 22.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Won
Yes$609 @ 55.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Lost
Yes$55 @ 2.9¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?Won
Yes$184 @ 60.2¢
Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?Lost
Yes$6 @ 5.7¢
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?Lost
Yes$329 @ 36.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Won
No$1.2k @ 49.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$391 @ 39.0¢

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