0xf186…09b0

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf186449663da29a6eb7e2a14a62d2c5fc2ac09b0
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+16.9pp

ROI

+31%

Win rate

77% @ 60.4¢

Brier

0.083

Resolved

141

Avg size

$28

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	32% (6/19)	-33%	19
Tech	63% (10/16)	+38%	16
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+18%	1

Other19 bets
Hit rate
32% (6/19)
ROI
-33%
Tech16 bets
Hit rate
63% (10/16)
ROI
+38%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+18%

Track record

46% hit · 17/37

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump say "Mine" during Fox interview on Wednesday?	Yes	$1	6.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Blockade" during Fox interview on Wednesday?	Yes	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Underwater" during Fox interview on Wednesday?	Yes	$1	6.0¢	Lost
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	No	$20	20.0¢	Lost
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	Yes	$1.2k	76.1¢	Won
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Yes	$4	6.9¢	Lost
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 35% or higher?	Yes	$104	88.5¢	Won
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	Yes	$680	50.5¢	Won
Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Yes	$102	81.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 24?	Yes	$1	67.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Fake news" during Fox interview on Wednesday?	Yes	$1	4.0¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	No	$2	7.0¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Yes	$221	85.0¢	Won
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	Yes	$764	83.7¢	Won
Kraken IPO in 2025?	No	$5	85.0¢	Won
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?	Yes	$53	64.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Bottom of the Sea" during Fox interview on Wednesday?	Yes	$1	3.0¢	Lost
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?	Yes	$15	36.5¢	Lost
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times August 22–August 29?	No	$5	88.8¢	Won
Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	$33	40.1¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	No	$33	16.1¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	$11	52.0¢	Won
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 21, 2026?	Yes	$5	8.3¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$10	75.0¢	Won
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	$1	2.3¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$21	81.0¢	Won
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by December 31?	No	$18	88.0¢	Won
GPT-5.5 released by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$3	5.1¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Fake News" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?	Yes	$2	49.0¢	Won
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$72	54.6¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	No	$150	64.4¢	Won
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	Yes	$10	16.8¢	Lost
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?	No	$25	9.2¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	No	$40	63.4¢	Won
Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	No	$7	5.4¢	Lost
Will Meta's Watermelon model debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	$9	7.8¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	Yes	$348	84.6¢	Won

Will Trump say "Mine" during Fox interview on Wednesday?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Will Trump say "Blockade" during Fox interview on Wednesday?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Will Trump say "Underwater" during Fox interview on Wednesday?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Lost
No$20 @ 20.0¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 76.1¢
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Lost
Yes$4 @ 6.9¢
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 35% or higher?Won
Yes$104 @ 88.5¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Won
Yes$680 @ 50.5¢
Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Won
Yes$102 @ 81.0¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 24?Lost
Yes$1 @ 67.0¢
Will Trump say "Fake news" during Fox interview on Wednesday?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Lost
No$2 @ 7.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Won
Yes$221 @ 85.0¢
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Won
Yes$764 @ 83.7¢
Kraken IPO in 2025?Won
No$5 @ 85.0¢
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?Lost
Yes$53 @ 64.0¢
Will Trump say "Bottom of the Sea" during Fox interview on Wednesday?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?Lost
Yes$15 @ 36.5¢
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times August 22–August 29?Won
No$5 @ 88.8¢
Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?Won
Yes$33 @ 40.1¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?Lost
No$33 @ 16.1¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?Won
Yes$11 @ 52.0¢
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 8.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$10 @ 75.0¢
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.3¢
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$21 @ 81.0¢
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by December 31?Won
No$18 @ 88.0¢
GPT-5.5 released by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 5.1¢
Will Trump say "Fake News" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?Won
Yes$2 @ 49.0¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$72 @ 54.6¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?Won
No$150 @ 64.4¢
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Lost
Yes$10 @ 16.8¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?Lost
No$25 @ 9.2¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?Won
No$40 @ 63.4¢
Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Lost
No$7 @ 5.4¢
Will Meta's Watermelon model debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?Lost
Yes$9 @ 7.8¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Won
Yes$348 @ 84.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$228	91.0¢
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$179	48.6¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$58	12.9¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$19	14.8¢
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$14	70.0¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$6	19.0¢
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	Politics	No	$3	66.0¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$3	6.4¢
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$3	10.7¢

Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$228 @ 91.0¢
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Tech
Yes$179 @ 48.6¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?Tech
Yes$58 @ 12.9¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Tech
Yes$19 @ 14.8¢
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Tech
Yes$14 @ 70.0¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Tech
Yes$6 @ 19.0¢
US strike on Colombia by December 31?Politics
No$3 @ 66.0¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?Tech
Yes$3 @ 6.4¢
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?Tech
Yes$3 @ 10.7¢