0xf01a…f231

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf01ac1aa9fef8eabc5e3c764747aabddaa90f231
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+11.5pp

ROI

+29%

Win rate

61% @ 49.2¢

Brier

0.175

Resolved

730

Avg size

$50

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Geopolitics	59% (71/120)	+19%	120
Other	52% (36/69)	+24%	69
Politics	56% (31/55)	+6%	55
Crypto	58% (7/12)	+3%	12
Business	43% (3/7)	-14%	7
Tech	50% (3/6)	-52%	6
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Geopolitics120 bets
Hit rate
59% (71/120)
ROI
+19%
Other69 bets
Hit rate
52% (36/69)
ROI
+24%
Politics55 bets
Hit rate
56% (31/55)
ROI
+6%
Crypto12 bets
Hit rate
58% (7/12)
ROI
+3%
Business7 bets
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
ROI
-14%
Tech6 bets
Hit rate
50% (3/6)
ROI
-52%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

56% hit · 151/270

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$13	50.3¢	Won
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the United States by December 31, 2027?	Yes	$0	2.1¢	Lost
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	$20	49.0¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by July 31, 2026?	No	$6	25.0¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$18	17.0¢	Won
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 30, 2026?	No	$60	49.3¢	Lost
Will Ukraine target Moscow by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$26	80.1¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	No	$85	57.0¢	Won
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 28, 2026?	No	$7	11.0¢	Lost
Will anyone say "Space" during Rick and Morty E4 S9?	Yes	$5	5.8¢	Lost
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	$48	80.3¢	Won
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	$12	11.5¢	Lost
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 22, 2026?	Yes	$0	22.0¢	Won
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 20, 2026?	No	$11	55.0¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31?	No	$152	85.3¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?	No	$38	34.3¢	Won
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?	No	$18	61.0¢	Won
Will anyone say "Ninja" during Rick and Morty E4 S9?	Yes	$0	0.9¢	Lost
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$946	33.4¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	$213	69.8¢	Won
Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	No	$91	53.9¢	Lost
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 22, 2026?	Yes	$41	64.3¢	Won
Will Ukraine target Moscow by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$131	87.4¢	Won
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$16	16.0¢	Lost
Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 20, 2026?	Yes	$9	26.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$8	2.6¢	Lost
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 19, 2026?	Yes	$49	69.6¢	Won
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?	No	$1	1.8¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$50	47.2¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	Yes	$34	26.0¢	Lost
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 21, 2026?	Yes	$47	59.3¢	Won
Another vessel struck in the Black Sea by November 15, 2026?	No	$12	29.0¢	Lost
Will Ukraine re-enter Zakitne by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	9.0¢	Lost
Moscow air traffic suspended by July 31?	Yes	$94	74.9¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	$493	49.0¢	Lost
Will Russia target Kyiv by August 26, 2026?	No	$1	16.0¢	Won
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 24, 2026?	No	$32	82.0¢	Won
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 24, 2026?	Yes	$98	38.5¢	Lost
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 13, 2026?	Yes	$93	74.0¢	Won
Will Dharmendra Pradhan be out as Minister of Education of India by July 31?	No	$54	67.2¢	Lost
Will Dharmendra Pradhan be out as Minister of Education of India by July 31?	Yes	$1	23.0¢	Won
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by August 31, 2026?	No	$140	81.1¢	Won
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	12.0¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31?	Yes	$29	57.0¢	Won
Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8.5m?	No	$7	72.5¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?	Yes	$454	83.9¢	Won
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	Yes	$162	83.5¢	Won
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?	No	$62	34.2¢	Lost
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$523	21.4¢	Won
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 17, 2026?	No	$23	75.7¢	Won

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$13 @ 50.3¢
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the United States by December 31, 2027?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.1¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Lost
No$20 @ 49.0¢
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$6 @ 25.0¢
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$18 @ 17.0¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 30, 2026?Lost
No$60 @ 49.3¢
Will Ukraine target Moscow by August 31, 2026?Won
Yes$26 @ 80.1¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
No$85 @ 57.0¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 28, 2026?Lost
No$7 @ 11.0¢
Will anyone say "Space" during Rick and Morty E4 S9?Lost
Yes$5 @ 5.8¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
No$48 @ 80.3¢
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Lost
Yes$12 @ 11.5¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 22, 2026?Won
Yes$0 @ 22.0¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 20, 2026?Lost
No$11 @ 55.0¢
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31?Won
No$152 @ 85.3¢
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?Won
No$38 @ 34.3¢
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?Won
No$18 @ 61.0¢
Will anyone say "Ninja" during Rick and Morty E4 S9?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.9¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$946 @ 33.4¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Won
Yes$213 @ 69.8¢
Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?Lost
No$91 @ 53.9¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 22, 2026?Won
Yes$41 @ 64.3¢
Will Ukraine target Moscow by August 31, 2026?Won
Yes$131 @ 87.4¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$16 @ 16.0¢
Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 20, 2026?Won
Yes$9 @ 26.0¢
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 2.6¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 19, 2026?Won
Yes$49 @ 69.6¢
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 1.8¢
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$50 @ 47.2¢
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?Lost
Yes$34 @ 26.0¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 21, 2026?Won
Yes$47 @ 59.3¢
Another vessel struck in the Black Sea by November 15, 2026?Lost
No$12 @ 29.0¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Zakitne by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 9.0¢
Moscow air traffic suspended by July 31?Won
Yes$94 @ 74.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Lost
No$493 @ 49.0¢
Will Russia target Kyiv by August 26, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 16.0¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 24, 2026?Won
No$32 @ 82.0¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$98 @ 38.5¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 13, 2026?Won
Yes$93 @ 74.0¢
Will Dharmendra Pradhan be out as Minister of Education of India by July 31?Lost
No$54 @ 67.2¢
Will Dharmendra Pradhan be out as Minister of Education of India by July 31?Won
Yes$1 @ 23.0¢
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by August 31, 2026?Won
No$140 @ 81.1¢
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 12.0¢
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31?Won
Yes$29 @ 57.0¢
Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8.5m?Lost
No$7 @ 72.5¢
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?Won
Yes$454 @ 83.9¢
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?Won
Yes$162 @ 83.5¢
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?Lost
No$62 @ 34.2¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Won
Yes$523 @ 21.4¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 17, 2026?Won
No$23 @ 75.7¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Politics	No	$767	90.3¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$317	53.1¢
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$257	36.6¢
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$161	39.8¢
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$123	76.4¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$117	89.6¢
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by November 30?	Geopolitics	No	$105	44.0¢
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$105	82.7¢
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces by June 30, 2027?	Politics	No	$97	75.0¢
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?	Sports	Yes	$93	55.7¢
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	Geopolitics	Yes	$78	59.8¢
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas by December 31, 2027?	Politics	No	$74	70.0¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $2.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$54	57.7¢
Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$27	54.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$23	15.5¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$20	49.0¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Zakitne by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$19	50.8¢
Will Betmoar launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Crypto	No	$15	62.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Tech	Yes	$15	7.4¢
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2026 World Chess Championship?	Sports	Yes	$15	33.0¢
Will Russia capture Bilytske by November 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$9	45.0¢
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$7	11.1¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Tech	No	$6	6.5¢
Over 4 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100?	Crypto	No	$6	22.4¢
Zcash's Orchard pool confirmed exploited?	Crypto	Yes	$5	2.5¢
Will Betmoar launch a token by September 30, 2027?	Crypto	No	$5	51.0¢
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas by December 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$3	15.0¢
Will LI.FI launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$3	6.5¢
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$2	7.9¢
Next Token Sale on Coinbase by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$2	35.6¢

Cuban regime falls in 2026?Politics
No$767 @ 90.3¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$317 @ 53.1¢
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?Politics
Yes$257 @ 36.6¢
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$161 @ 39.8¢
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?Crypto
No$123 @ 76.4¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$117 @ 89.6¢
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by November 30?Geopolitics
No$105 @ 44.0¢
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$105 @ 82.7¢
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces by June 30, 2027?Politics
No$97 @ 75.0¢
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? Sports
Yes$93 @ 55.7¢
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?Geopolitics
Yes$78 @ 59.8¢
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas by December 31, 2027?Politics
No$74 @ 70.0¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $2.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$54 @ 57.7¢
Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$27 @ 54.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
Yes$23 @ 15.5¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Politics
No$20 @ 49.0¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Zakitne by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$19 @ 50.8¢
Will Betmoar launch a token by June 30, 2027?Crypto
No$15 @ 62.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
Yes$15 @ 7.4¢
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2026 World Chess Championship?Sports
Yes$15 @ 33.0¢
Will Russia capture Bilytske by November 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$9 @ 45.0¢
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?Economy
Yes$7 @ 11.1¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Tech
No$6 @ 6.5¢
Over 4 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100?Crypto
No$6 @ 22.4¢
Zcash's Orchard pool confirmed exploited?Crypto
Yes$5 @ 2.5¢
Will Betmoar launch a token by September 30, 2027?Crypto
No$5 @ 51.0¢
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas by December 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$3 @ 15.0¢
Will LI.FI launch a token by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$3 @ 6.5¢
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$2 @ 7.9¢
Next Token Sale on Coinbase by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$2 @ 35.6¢