← Smart money
0xf014…a7cd
ProfitableEdge
+23.2pp
ROI
+187%
Win rate
75% @ 51.8¢
Brier
0.295
Resolved
60
Avg size
$4
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 67% (6/9) | +0% | 9 |
| Other | 75% (3/4) | +1385% | 4 |
| Tech | 100% (2/2) | +123% | 2 |
| Politics | 50% (1/2) | +14% | 2 |
- Sports9 bets
- Hit rate
- 67% (6/9)
- ROI
- +0%
- Other4 bets
- Hit rate
- 75% (3/4)
- ROI
- +1385%
- Tech2 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (2/2)
- ROI
- +123%
- Politics2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- +14%
Track record
71% hit · 12/17| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 National League Championship Series? | Yes | $4 | 40.7¢ | Won |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | Yes | $2 | 19.4¢ | Lost |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | Yes | $4 | 25.8¢ | Won |
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? | No | $56 | 39.5¢ | Won |
| Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? | Yes | $3 | 31.0¢ | Won |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Yes | $7 | 33.5¢ | Lost |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | $5 | 1.9¢ | Won |
| Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? | Yes | $16 | 11.0¢ | Lost |
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? | No | $17 | 83.0¢ | Won |
| Bills vs. Rams | Bills | $4 | 38.0¢ | Won |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | $10 | 62.5¢ | Won |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | $10 | 10.0¢ | Won |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Yes | $10 | 26.0¢ | Won |
| Ravens vs. Falcons | Ravens | $2 | 38.0¢ | Won |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | $72 | 72.2¢ | Won |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | Yes | $28 | 79.0¢ | Lost |
| Browns vs. Jets | Browns | $6 | 41.7¢ | Lost |
- Yes$4 @ 40.7¢
- Yes$2 @ 19.4¢
- Yes$4 @ 25.8¢
- No$56 @ 39.5¢
- Yes$3 @ 31.0¢
- Yes$7 @ 33.5¢
- Yes$5 @ 1.9¢
- Yes$16 @ 11.0¢
- No$17 @ 83.0¢
- Bills$4 @ 38.0¢
- Yes$10 @ 62.5¢
- Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
- Yes$10 @ 26.0¢
- Ravens$2 @ 38.0¢
- Yes$72 @ 72.2¢
- Yes$28 @ 79.0¢
- Browns vs. JetsLostBrowns$6 @ 41.7¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
- Yes$128 @ 16.6¢
- No$101 @ 67.1¢
- Yes$90 @ 15.0¢
- Yes$83 @ 47.3¢
- Yes$74 @ 83.2¢
- No$73 @ 81.0¢
- No$64 @ 48.1¢
- Yes$55 @ 41.0¢
- No$44 @ 62.7¢
- Yes$28 @ 11.2¢
- Yes$28 @ 69.9¢
- Yes$20 @ 12.2¢
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?PoliticsYes$19 @ 35.9¢
- No$18 @ 91.3¢
- Yes$16 @ 16.2¢
- Yes$10 @ 40.0¢
- Yes$7 @ 3.0¢
- Yes$6 @ 8.0¢
- Yes$3 @ 64.9¢
- Yes$2 @ 23.6¢