0xefc8…4676

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xefc84a51f07abce7076105b380f2eae05c684676
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-7.0pp

ROI

+24%

Win rate

23% @ 29.5¢

Brier

0.142

Resolved

235

Avg size

$15

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	33% (36/109)	+30%	109
Politics	40% (2/5)	-27%	5
Sports	0% (0/4)	-100%	4

Other109 bets
Hit rate
33% (36/109)
ROI
+30%
Politics5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
-27%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%

Track record

32% hit · 38/118

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08?	Yes	$2	17.0¢	Won
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$1	2.8¢	Lost
Will Belarus win on 2026-03-29?	Yes	$5	26.0¢	Won
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	$1	13.0¢	Lost
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11?	Yes	$50	74.0¢	Won
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-18?	Yes	$2	19.0¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$30	71.0¢	Won
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-12?	No	$10	64.0¢	Won
Will Poland win on 2026-03-26?	Yes	$10	60.0¢	Won
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Lost
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Girona FC end in a draw?	Yes	$1	20.0¢	Won
Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees	New York Yankees	$3	40.3¢	Won
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-03-22?	Yes	$10	37.0¢	Lost
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-04-17?	Yes	$71	57.5¢	Won
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?	Yes	$7	57.0¢	Won
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?	Yes	$5	25.0¢	Lost
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-04-11?	Yes	$5	39.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	Yes	$33	40.0¢	Lost
Crystal Palace FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 1.5	Over	$3	4.0¢	Lost
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14?	Yes	$2	73.0¢	Won
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$6	1.0¢	Lost
Manchester City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 1.5	Over	$543	83.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?	Yes	$100	18.0¢	Lost
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-13?	Yes	$35	44.0¢	Lost
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5	Over	$11	82.0¢	Lost
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-04-05?	Yes	$5	45.0¢	Lost
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-04-04?	Yes	$10	61.0¢	Lost
Will Racing Club de Lens vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?	Yes	$10	26.0¢	Lost
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14?	Yes	$50	55.0¢	Won
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies	Washington Nationals	$10	76.0¢	Lost
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	Yes	$55	69.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	Yes	$99	22.0¢	Lost
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-11?	Yes	$30	58.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?	Yes	$92	23.0¢	Lost
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04?	Yes	$10	46.0¢	Won
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-26?	Yes	$5	42.0¢	Won
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-13?	No	$5	30.0¢	Lost
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5	Under	$3	28.2¢	Won
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. AS Roma end in a draw?	Yes	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-12?	Yes	$11	8.6¢	Lost
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04?	Yes	$43	26.2¢	Won
Will New York City FC win on 2026-04-04?	Yes	$2	53.0¢	Lost
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?	Yes	$8	28.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?	Yes	$33	66.0¢	Lost
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-20?	Yes	$7	29.0¢	Lost
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07?	Yes	$13	44.0¢	Won
Will White House post 200+ posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	Yes	$22	22.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	Yes	$3	7.4¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	Yes	$70	54.4¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	$12	21.0¢	Lost

Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08?Won
Yes$2 @ 17.0¢
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.8¢
Will Belarus win on 2026-03-29?Won
Yes$5 @ 26.0¢
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago CubsLost
Chicago Cubs$1 @ 13.0¢
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11?Won
Yes$50 @ 74.0¢
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-18?Lost
Yes$2 @ 19.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$30 @ 71.0¢
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-12?Won
No$10 @ 64.0¢
Will Poland win on 2026-03-26?Won
Yes$10 @ 60.0¢
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Girona FC end in a draw?Won
Yes$1 @ 20.0¢
Miami Marlins vs. New York YankeesWon
New York Yankees$3 @ 40.3¢
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-03-22?Lost
Yes$10 @ 37.0¢
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-04-17?Won
Yes$71 @ 57.5¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?Won
Yes$7 @ 57.0¢
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?Lost
Yes$5 @ 25.0¢
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-04-11?Lost
Yes$5 @ 39.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?Lost
Yes$33 @ 40.0¢
Crystal Palace FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 1.5Lost
Over$3 @ 4.0¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14?Won
Yes$2 @ 73.0¢
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League?Lost
Yes$6 @ 1.0¢
Manchester City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 1.5Won
Over$543 @ 83.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$100 @ 18.0¢
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-13?Lost
Yes$35 @ 44.0¢
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5Lost
Over$11 @ 82.0¢
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-04-05?Lost
Yes$5 @ 45.0¢
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-04-04?Lost
Yes$10 @ 61.0¢
Will Racing Club de Lens vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?Lost
Yes$10 @ 26.0¢
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14?Won
Yes$50 @ 55.0¢
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesLost
Washington Nationals$10 @ 76.0¢
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?Lost
Yes$55 @ 69.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$99 @ 22.0¢
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-11?Won
Yes$30 @ 58.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$92 @ 23.0¢
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04?Won
Yes$10 @ 46.0¢
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-26?Won
Yes$5 @ 42.0¢
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-13?Lost
No$5 @ 30.0¢
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5Won
Under$3 @ 28.2¢
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. AS Roma end in a draw?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-12?Lost
Yes$11 @ 8.6¢
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04?Won
Yes$43 @ 26.2¢
Will New York City FC win on 2026-04-04?Lost
Yes$2 @ 53.0¢
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?Lost
Yes$8 @ 28.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$33 @ 66.0¢
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-20?Lost
Yes$7 @ 29.0¢
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07?Won
Yes$13 @ 44.0¢
Will White House post 200+ posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?Lost
Yes$22 @ 22.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 7.4¢
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$70 @ 54.4¢
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?Lost
Yes$12 @ 21.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	—	No	$10	54.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$5	64.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$5	83.0¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	—	Yes	$4	79.4¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?	—	Yes	$3	60.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?	Politics	No	$3	72.7¢
Will the median home value in NYC be between $636,000 and $663,000 on September 30?	—	Yes	$3	31.2¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	10.0¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1	31.3¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?—
No$10 @ 54.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$5 @ 64.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?Politics
Yes$5 @ 83.0¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?—
Yes$4 @ 79.4¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?—
Yes$3 @ 60.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?Politics
No$3 @ 72.7¢
Will the median home value in NYC be between $636,000 and $663,000 on September 30?—
Yes$3 @ 31.2¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$1 @ 31.3¢