0xed19…cb5e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xed19489cfbf7e0002147a2556e956d8ac909cb5e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.6pp

ROI

+9%

Win rate

63% @ 54.3¢

Brier

0.189

Resolved

3652

Avg size

$18

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	54% (131/241)	+23%	241
Other	56% (116/206)	+8%	206
Geopolitics	55% (41/75)	-8%	75
Sports	50% (22/44)	-22%	44
Tech	53% (10/19)	-6%	19
Economy	71% (5/7)	+36%	7
Culture	67% (4/6)	+8%	6

Politics241 bets
Hit rate
54% (131/241)
ROI
+23%
Other206 bets
Hit rate
56% (116/206)
ROI
+8%
Geopolitics75 bets
Hit rate
55% (41/75)
ROI
-8%
Sports44 bets
Hit rate
50% (22/44)
ROI
-22%
Tech19 bets
Hit rate
53% (10/19)
ROI
-6%
Economy7 bets
Hit rate
71% (5/7)
ROI
+36%
Culture6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
+8%

Track record

55% hit · 329/598

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	22.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	$3	72.8¢	Won
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	$2	83.0¢	Won
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$42	51.3¢	Won
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	$3	61.1¢	Won
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	$12	61.0¢	Lost
Will Ben Shelton Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	No	$26	65.0¢	Lost
Will Trump praise Jon Rahm in September?	No	$11	83.0¢	Won
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	No	$4	81.0¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$46	77.2¢	Lost
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?	No	$46	48.4¢	Won
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?	No	$45	74.9¢	Won
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?	Yes	$16	39.5¢	Lost
Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	No	$147	83.3¢	Won
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?	No	$133	68.8¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$21	52.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	No	$18	46.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$126	55.0¢	Won
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?	No	$31	77.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	No	$30	74.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	Yes	$7	46.0¢	Lost
Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest: Total HDBs O/U 704.8	Under	$27	67.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	No	$136	84.5¢	Won
Iran leadership change by September 30?	No	$70	88.2¢	Won
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?	No	$8	8.3¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	$11	30.1¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?	Yes	$354	59.0¢	Won
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?	No	$32	68.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$79	41.3¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?	Yes	$70	88.0¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	No	$111	69.6¢	Lost
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?	No	$61	60.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$56	69.8¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$45	45.1¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$453	60.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$20	25.0¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$15	18.7¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Yes	$26	64.0¢	Lost
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?	No	$208	52.0¢	Lost
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?	Yes	$241	56.0¢	Won
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	Yes	$69	58.0¢	Won
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	Yes	$6	83.0¢	Won
Will Drake release a new album by September 30?	No	$20	81.7¢	Won
Will Drake release a new album by September 30?	Yes	$2	20.4¢	Lost
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?	Yes	$7	18.1¢	Lost
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?	No	$12	76.0¢	Won
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?	No	$10	26.0¢	Lost
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?	Yes	$49	74.5¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	$7	88.8¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$10	8.0¢	Lost

Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 22.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Won
No$3 @ 72.8¢
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
No$2 @ 83.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
Yes$42 @ 51.3¢
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Won
No$3 @ 61.1¢
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Lost
Yes$12 @ 61.0¢
Will Ben Shelton Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?Lost
No$26 @ 65.0¢
Will Trump praise Jon Rahm in September?Won
No$11 @ 83.0¢
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 81.0¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$46 @ 77.2¢
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Won
No$46 @ 48.4¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?Won
No$45 @ 74.9¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?Lost
Yes$16 @ 39.5¢
Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?Won
No$147 @ 83.3¢
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?Lost
No$133 @ 68.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$21 @ 52.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$18 @ 46.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$126 @ 55.0¢
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?Won
No$31 @ 77.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
No$30 @ 74.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Lost
Yes$7 @ 46.0¢
Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest: Total HDBs O/U 704.8Won
Under$27 @ 67.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Won
No$136 @ 84.5¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?Won
No$70 @ 88.2¢
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?Lost
No$8 @ 8.3¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$11 @ 30.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?Won
Yes$354 @ 59.0¢
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?Lost
No$32 @ 68.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$79 @ 41.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?Won
Yes$70 @ 88.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Lost
No$111 @ 69.6¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?Won
No$61 @ 60.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$56 @ 69.8¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$45 @ 45.1¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$453 @ 60.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$20 @ 25.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$15 @ 18.7¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Lost
Yes$26 @ 64.0¢
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?Lost
No$208 @ 52.0¢
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?Won
Yes$241 @ 56.0¢
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?Won
Yes$69 @ 58.0¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Won
Yes$6 @ 83.0¢
Will Drake release a new album by September 30?Won
No$20 @ 81.7¢
Will Drake release a new album by September 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 20.4¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?Lost
Yes$7 @ 18.1¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?Won
No$12 @ 76.0¢
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?Lost
No$10 @ 26.0¢
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?Won
Yes$49 @ 74.5¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$7 @ 88.8¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$10 @ 8.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Nawrocki out by December 31?	Politics	No	$227	91.5¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$212	94.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$53	71.0¢
Tusk out by December 31?	Politics	No	$48	91.0¢
Święczkowski reinstated as Constitutional Tribunal President by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$22	75.6¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$22	87.0¢
Will Arthur Fils Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings	—	No	$18	52.4¢
Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day?	Business	Yes	$16	40.2¢
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$15	37.3¢
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	Sports	Yes	$14	50.3¢
Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1.0%?	Economy	Yes	$10	71.0¢
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by March 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$10	29.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Politics	Yes	$3	82.0¢
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?	Politics	No	$3	83.0¢
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?	Economy	No	$2	45.2¢
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$2	79.0¢
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1	29.0¢

Nawrocki out by December 31?Politics
No$227 @ 91.5¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$212 @ 94.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$53 @ 71.0¢
Tusk out by December 31?Politics
No$48 @ 91.0¢
Święczkowski reinstated as Constitutional Tribunal President by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$22 @ 75.6¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$22 @ 87.0¢
Will Arthur Fils Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings—
No$18 @ 52.4¢
Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day?Business
Yes$16 @ 40.2¢
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$15 @ 37.3¢
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?Sports
Yes$14 @ 50.3¢
Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1.0%?Economy
Yes$10 @ 71.0¢
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by March 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$10 @ 29.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Politics
Yes$3 @ 82.0¢
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?Politics
No$3 @ 83.0¢
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?Economy
No$2 @ 45.2¢
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$2 @ 79.0¢
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$1 @ 29.0¢