0xed19…cb5e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xed19489cfbf7e0002147a2556e956d8ac909cb5e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+17.1pp

ROI

+27%

Win rate

65% @ 48.2¢

Brier

0.230

Resolved

438

Avg size

$12

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	59% (71/121)	+23%	121
Politics	61% (59/97)	+17%	97
Sports	46% (12/26)	+14%	26
Tech	57% (8/14)	+5%	14
Geopolitics	57% (8/14)	-20%	14
Economy	75% (3/4)	+36%	4

Other121 bets
Hit rate
59% (71/121)
ROI
+23%
Politics97 bets
Hit rate
61% (59/97)
ROI
+17%
Sports26 bets
Hit rate
46% (12/26)
ROI
+14%
Tech14 bets
Hit rate
57% (8/14)
ROI
+5%
Geopolitics14 bets
Hit rate
57% (8/14)
ROI
-20%
Economy4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+36%

Track record

58% hit · 161/276

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$10	28.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$33	47.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$54	71.5¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$56	69.8¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$15	18.7¢	Lost
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	$2	4.6¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$20	37.1¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$76	63.0¢	Won
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	$35	86.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	Yes	$115	73.8¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	No	$3	1.6¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	$27	73.0¢	Won
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	$8	12.1¢	Won
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by August 31, 2026?	No	$74	86.9¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 19?	Yes	$10	41.0¢	Won
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	$6	37.0¢	Lost
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$63	72.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$59	74.3¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$4	7.0¢	Lost
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	$19	80.0¢	Lost
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$13	32.7¢	Won
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?	Yes	$8	39.6¢	Lost
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	$32	13.2¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$77	40.9¢	Lost
Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election?	No	$3	16.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	No	$21	52.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$54	22.8¢	Lost
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	$32	79.0¢	Lost
Will Rodri join Barcelona?	Yes	$14	88.4¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$98	58.6¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$730	33.2¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$115	81.0¢	Won
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open?	Yes	$18	30.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$123	82.3¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	$11	14.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	No	$6	7.1¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	Yes	$213	59.7¢	Won
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	$33	53.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	No	$70	41.9¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	Yes	$70	88.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	No	$16	49.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	Yes	$252	78.6¢	Won
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$14	69.0¢	Won
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$60	32.3¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$114	86.5¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	Yes	$265	51.8¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?	No	$33	67.0¢	Won
Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?	Yes	$29	72.8¢	Lost
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?	Yes	$3	7.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?	Yes	$218	75.1¢	Won

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$10 @ 28.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Won
No$33 @ 47.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$54 @ 71.5¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$56 @ 69.8¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$15 @ 18.7¢
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's US Open?Lost
Yes$2 @ 4.6¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
No$20 @ 37.1¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$76 @ 63.0¢
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Won
Yes$35 @ 86.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Won
Yes$115 @ 73.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?Lost
No$3 @ 1.6¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Won
Yes$27 @ 73.0¢
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?Won
Yes$8 @ 12.1¢
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by August 31, 2026?Won
No$74 @ 86.9¢
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 19?Won
Yes$10 @ 41.0¢
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$6 @ 37.0¢
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$63 @ 72.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$59 @ 74.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 7.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
No$19 @ 80.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Won
Yes$13 @ 32.7¢
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?Lost
Yes$8 @ 39.6¢
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Lost
Yes$32 @ 13.2¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$77 @ 40.9¢
Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election?Lost
No$3 @ 16.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?Won
No$21 @ 52.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$54 @ 22.8¢
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?Lost
Yes$32 @ 79.0¢
Will Rodri join Barcelona?Won
Yes$14 @ 88.4¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$98 @ 58.6¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$730 @ 33.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$115 @ 81.0¢
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open?Lost
Yes$18 @ 30.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$123 @ 82.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
Yes$11 @ 14.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Lost
No$6 @ 7.1¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Won
Yes$213 @ 59.7¢
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open?Lost
Yes$33 @ 53.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?Lost
No$70 @ 41.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?Won
Yes$70 @ 88.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Lost
No$16 @ 49.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Won
Yes$252 @ 78.6¢
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
No$14 @ 69.0¢
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
Yes$60 @ 32.3¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$114 @ 86.5¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Won
Yes$265 @ 51.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?Won
No$33 @ 67.0¢
Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?Lost
Yes$29 @ 72.8¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 7.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?Won
Yes$218 @ 75.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Politics	No	$301	62.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$138	86.0¢
Will Smith College exclude trans women in 2026?	—	No	$96	80.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$89	77.1¢
Will Bayern Munich be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?	—	Yes	$81	86.0¢
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Politics	Yes	$78	60.8¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$70	87.0¢
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by June 30, 2027?	—	No	$64	69.9¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$57	57.4¢
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?	Politics	No	$49	81.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	—	Yes	$41	69.2¢
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Politics	No	$32	80.0¢
Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1.0%?	Economy	Yes	$30	71.0¢
Will Ben Shelton Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	—	No	$26	65.0¢
Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 2.0%?	Economy	No	$24	74.0¢
Will Alex de Minaur Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	—	Yes	$19	47.3¢
Will Arthur Fils Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings	—	No	$18	52.4¢
Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day?	Business	Yes	$16	40.2¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$16	40.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$15	52.1¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	No	$15	75.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$15	37.3¢
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	—	Yes	$14	50.3¢
Will "Primetime" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	—	Yes	$14	78.0¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	No	$14	92.9¢
Will Trump praise Jon Rahm in September?	—	No	$11	83.0¢
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by March 31, 2027?	—	Yes	$10	29.0¢
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	Economy	No	$9	79.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$7	48.0¢
Will anyone insult Donald Trump during the 2026 Emmy Awards?	—	Yes	$7	45.0¢

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
No$301 @ 62.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$138 @ 86.0¢
Will Smith College exclude trans women in 2026?—
No$96 @ 80.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$89 @ 77.1¢
Will Bayern Munich be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?—
Yes$81 @ 86.0¢
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Politics
Yes$78 @ 60.8¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$70 @ 87.0¢
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by June 30, 2027?—
No$64 @ 69.9¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$57 @ 57.4¢
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?Politics
No$49 @ 81.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?—
Yes$41 @ 69.2¢
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?Politics
No$32 @ 80.0¢
Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1.0%?Economy
Yes$30 @ 71.0¢
Will Ben Shelton Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?—
No$26 @ 65.0¢
Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 2.0%?Economy
No$24 @ 74.0¢
Will Alex de Minaur Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?—
Yes$19 @ 47.3¢
Will Arthur Fils Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings—
No$18 @ 52.4¢
Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day?Business
Yes$16 @ 40.2¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$16 @ 40.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$15 @ 52.1¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
No$15 @ 75.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$15 @ 37.3¢
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?—
Yes$14 @ 50.3¢
Will "Primetime" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?—
Yes$14 @ 78.0¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
No$14 @ 92.9¢
Will Trump praise Jon Rahm in September?—
No$11 @ 83.0¢
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by March 31, 2027?—
Yes$10 @ 29.0¢
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?Economy
No$9 @ 79.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$7 @ 48.0¢
Will anyone insult Donald Trump during the 2026 Emmy Awards?—
Yes$7 @ 45.0¢