0xed19…cb5e

Specialization by sphere

• Politics33 bets

  Hit rate

  58% (19/33)

  ROI

  +19%

• Other25 bets

  Hit rate

  68% (17/25)

  ROI

  +13%

• Geopolitics5 bets

  Hit rate

  60% (3/5)

  ROI

  -69%

• Tech4 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (4/4)

  ROI

  +56%

• Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Won
  No$4 @ 81.0¢
• Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?Lost
  No$162 @ 68.8¢
• Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$11 @ 30.1¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$79 @ 41.3¢
• Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
  No$7 @ 88.8¢
• Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
  Yes$8 @ 12.2¢
• US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
  Yes$254 @ 59.5¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
  No$704 @ 80.4¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Won
  No$152 @ 74.3¢
• Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
  No$54 @ 79.0¢
• Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$127 @ 28.5¢
• Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
  No$744 @ 83.4¢
• FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?Lost
  No$4 @ 7.9¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?Won
  No$542 @ 76.8¢
• Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?Lost
  Yes$73 @ 52.5¢
• Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?Won
  No$84 @ 81.8¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?Lost
  No$130 @ 38.9¢
• Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
  No$28 @ 54.4¢
• Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?Won
  No$295 @ 83.8¢
• Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?Won
  No$11 @ 52.5¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
  Yes$303 @ 63.5¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?Won
  No$56 @ 89.0¢
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$9 @ 9.0¢
• Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?Won
  No$95 @ 79.2¢
• Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Won
  Yes$227 @ 61.9¢
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$7 @ 43.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$1.0k @ 78.1¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$1.4k @ 46.4¢
• SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Won
  Yes$45 @ 65.0¢
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$23 @ 45.0¢
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 7.5¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?Won
  No$132 @ 83.7¢
• Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Won
  Yes$405 @ 60.8¢
• Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?Won
  No$27 @ 73.0¢
• Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?Lost
  No$2 @ 4.2¢
• Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
  Yes$13 @ 55.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
  No$93 @ 74.1¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Lost
  Yes$115 @ 27.7¢
• SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Won
  No$26 @ 54.5¢
• Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?Won
  No$97 @ 36.8¢
• Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?Won
  Yes$51 @ 58.6¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
  Yes$122 @ 60.9¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Won
  No$7 @ 89.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Lost
  No$261 @ 71.2¢
• Iran leadership change by June 30?Won
  No$404 @ 80.8¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Won
  No$185 @ 74.0¢
• Iran leadership change by April 30?Won
  No$31 @ 85.0¢
• Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?Lost
  No$4 @ 9.4¢
• NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 5.9¢
• US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Won
  No$35 @ 28.0¢

Current positions

• Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
  No$543 @ 65.6¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
  No$452 @ 79.4¢
• Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Politics
  No$310 @ 89.7¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
  No$234 @ 58.4¢
• Iran leadership change by June 30?Politics
  No$230 @ 92.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Politics
  No$131 @ 72.8¢
• Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Politics
  No$117 @ 85.8¢
• Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$110 @ 83.3¢
• Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Politics
  No$110 @ 87.6¢
• Fed rate hike in 2026?Economy
  Yes$101 @ 63.0¢
• Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Politics
  Yes$92 @ 77.0¢
• Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$92 @ 93.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
  Yes$77 @ 90.2¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Politics
  Yes$74 @ 46.5¢
• Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Politics
  Yes$74 @ 65.7¢
• Starmer out by June 22, 2026?Politics
  No$74 @ 74.4¢
• Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
  Yes$69 @ 57.5¢
• Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?Sports
  No$68 @ 69.2¢
• Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Politics
  No$67 @ 57.0¢
• China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
  No$66 @ 83.0¢
• Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?Geopolitics
  No$66 @ 68.5¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  Yes$62 @ 17.2¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics
  No$59 @ 71.3¢
• Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
  No$57 @ 91.8¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?Politics
  No$56 @ 86.9¢
• Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$56 @ 44.3¢
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Politics
  Yes$54 @ 71.5¢
• Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?Politics
  No$49 @ 80.9¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics
  Yes$47 @ 51.3¢
• Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$42 @ 51.3¢