0xece7…3673

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xece740d3b31bd6bcae4e4236fac92ebe1dbb3673
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.6pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

57% @ 51.9¢

Brier

0.165

Resolved

2245

Avg size

$34

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	54% (195/359)	+7%	359
Politics	64% (39/61)	+18%	61
Sports	62% (21/34)	+4%	34
Tech	38% (9/24)	+11%	24
Culture	79% (11/14)	+29%	14
Geopolitics	73% (8/11)	+10%	11
Crypto	90% (9/10)	+48%	10
Business	100% (1/1)	+19%	1

Other359 bets
Hit rate
54% (195/359)
ROI
+7%
Politics61 bets
Hit rate
64% (39/61)
ROI
+18%
Sports34 bets
Hit rate
62% (21/34)
ROI
+4%
Tech24 bets
Hit rate
38% (9/24)
ROI
+11%
Culture14 bets
Hit rate
79% (11/14)
ROI
+29%
Geopolitics11 bets
Hit rate
73% (8/11)
ROI
+10%
Crypto10 bets
Hit rate
90% (9/10)
ROI
+48%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+19%

Track record

57% hit · 293/514

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$15	15.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast hit 525 million subscribers by October 31?	No	$51	85.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	$170	78.1¢	Won
Will MrBeast hit 145 billion views by October 31?	No	$5	94.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast hit 524 million subscribers by October 31?	No	$39	65.0¢	Lost
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	$14	70.8¢	Won
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$34	33.6¢	Won
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$43	28.7¢	Lost
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$134	44.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast hit 143 billion views by October 31?	Yes	$50	99.0¢	Won
Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5	Yes	$23	27.5¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025?	Yes	$6	1.9¢	Lost
Will GenesisCupChampion win the Genesis Cup?	Yes	$5	47.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?	No	$96	69.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?	Yes	$82	20.0¢	Won
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?	Yes	$471	85.7¢	Won
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$6	1.2¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$5	1.0¢	Lost
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?	Yes	$3	62.0¢	Won
Stars vs. Canadiens	Canadiens	$11	53.4¢	Lost
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	No	$1	31.0¢	Won
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	Yes	$4	64.8¢	Lost
Will the U.S. collect between $500b and $1t in revenue in 2025?	Yes	$7	2.6¢	Lost
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026?	No	$216	86.2¢	Won
Will MrBeast hit 465 Million subscribers by January 31?	No	$234	70.7¢	Lost
Will MrBeast hit 465 Million subscribers by January 31?	Yes	$72	47.6¢	Won
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	No	$641	77.1¢	Won
Iran leadership change by September 30?	No	$645	86.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$28	88.0¢	Won
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$5	1.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	Yes	$10	20.8¢	Lost
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	$1.3k	75.9¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $94,000 November 10-16?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?	No	$306	16.4¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$650	39.4¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: ALLINNERS vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #14 Play-In Group C	illwill	$21	69.0¢	Won
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	No	$725	77.9¢	Won
Al Shabab Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club: O/U 2.5	Under	$9	39.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	Yes	$155	77.4¢	Won
Will Resni.ca (Res) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?	No	$54	80.9¢	Won
Como 1907 vs. Torino FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$21	35.0¢	Lost
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	No	$180	48.6¢	Won
Will Liberal Alliance win 15-19 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?	Yes	$7	53.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	No	$34	69.0¢	Won
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-25?	No	$13	51.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	Yes	$104	26.0¢	Won
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-25?	No	$29	84.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$102	35.8¢	Won
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$6	1.2¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs	FURIA	$18	76.0¢	Won

NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 15.0¢
Will MrBeast hit 525 million subscribers by October 31?Won
No$51 @ 85.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?Won
Yes$170 @ 78.1¢
Will MrBeast hit 145 billion views by October 31?Lost
No$5 @ 94.0¢
Will MrBeast hit 524 million subscribers by October 31?Lost
No$39 @ 65.0¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
No$14 @ 70.8¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
Yes$34 @ 33.6¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$43 @ 28.7¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
Yes$134 @ 44.0¢
Will MrBeast hit 143 billion views by October 31?Won
Yes$50 @ 99.0¢
Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5Lost
Yes$23 @ 27.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025?Lost
Yes$6 @ 1.9¢
Will GenesisCupChampion win the Genesis Cup?Won
Yes$5 @ 47.0¢
Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?Lost
No$96 @ 69.0¢
Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?Won
Yes$82 @ 20.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?Won
Yes$471 @ 85.7¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$6 @ 1.2¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.0¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?Won
Yes$3 @ 62.0¢
Stars vs. CanadiensLost
Canadiens$11 @ 53.4¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Won
No$1 @ 31.0¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Lost
Yes$4 @ 64.8¢
Will the U.S. collect between $500b and $1t in revenue in 2025?Lost
Yes$7 @ 2.6¢
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026?Won
No$216 @ 86.2¢
Will MrBeast hit 465 Million subscribers by January 31?Lost
No$234 @ 70.7¢
Will MrBeast hit 465 Million subscribers by January 31?Won
Yes$72 @ 47.6¢
Will France strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$641 @ 77.1¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?Won
No$645 @ 86.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
Yes$28 @ 88.0¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.0¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?Lost
Yes$10 @ 20.8¢
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
No$1.3k @ 75.9¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $94,000 November 10-16?Won
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?Lost
No$306 @ 16.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$650 @ 39.4¢
Counter-Strike: ALLINNERS vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #14 Play-In Group CWon
illwill$21 @ 69.0¢
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$725 @ 77.9¢
Al Shabab Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club: O/U 2.5Won
Under$9 @ 39.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Won
Yes$155 @ 77.4¢
Will Resni.ca (Res) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?Won
No$54 @ 80.9¢
Como 1907 vs. Torino FC: Both Teams to ScoreLost
Yes$21 @ 35.0¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$180 @ 48.6¢
Will Liberal Alliance win 15-19 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?Won
Yes$7 @ 53.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Won
No$34 @ 69.0¢
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-25?Lost
No$13 @ 51.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Won
Yes$104 @ 26.0¢
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-25?Lost
No$29 @ 84.0¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Won
Yes$102 @ 35.8¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$6 @ 1.2¢
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Bounty PlayoffsWon
FURIA$18 @ 76.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$13.1k	87.7¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$705	70.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November?	Other	Yes	$367	18.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Politics	Yes	$312	51.5¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$286	86.5¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$268	83.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in November?	Other	No	$248	50.6¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$238	47.6¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$229	76.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Politics	Yes	$153	56.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in November?	Other	No	$109	28.5¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$97	77.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Politics	Yes	$70	28.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$46	23.0¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by March 31, 2027?	Geopolitics	Yes	$22	28.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$15	5.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in November?	Other	Yes	$12	2.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in November?	Other	Yes	$10	2.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in November?	Other	Yes	$8	13.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$7	67.0¢

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Geopolitics
No$13.1k @ 87.7¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$705 @ 70.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November?Other
Yes$367 @ 18.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Politics
Yes$312 @ 51.5¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$286 @ 86.5¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$268 @ 83.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in November?Other
No$248 @ 50.6¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$238 @ 47.6¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$229 @ 76.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Politics
Yes$153 @ 56.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in November?Other
No$109 @ 28.5¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$97 @ 77.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Politics
Yes$70 @ 28.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$46 @ 23.0¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by March 31, 2027?Geopolitics
Yes$22 @ 28.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$15 @ 5.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in November?Other
Yes$12 @ 2.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in November?Other
Yes$10 @ 2.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in November?Other
Yes$8 @ 13.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$7 @ 67.0¢