0xece7…3673

Specialization by sphere

• Other27 bets

  Hit rate

  78% (21/27)

  ROI

  +35%

• Politics21 bets

  Hit rate

  71% (15/21)

  ROI

  +10%

• Tech14 bets

  Hit rate

  36% (5/14)

  ROI

  +15%

• Crypto5 bets

  Hit rate

  80% (4/5)

  ROI

  +51%

• Sports2 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/2)

  ROI

  -100%

• Geopolitics2 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (1/2)

  ROI

  -11%

• Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?Won
  Yes$42 @ 26.6¢
• Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?Won
  Yes$3 @ 62.0¢
• Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$1.1k @ 75.5¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$711 @ 40.6¢
• Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Won
  Yes$155 @ 77.4¢
• Will Resni.ca (Res) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?Won
  No$53 @ 81.5¢
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Won
  No$34 @ 69.0¢
• Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Won
  Yes$102 @ 35.8¢
• Iran coup attempt by June 30?Won
  No$171 @ 85.5¢
• SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?Lost
  No$2 @ 1.6¢
• Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?Won
  No$265 @ 67.2¢
• Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?Won
  No$191 @ 88.8¢
• Sharjah ruler Sultan bin Muhammad Al-Qasimi arrested by May 31?Lost
  Yes$20 @ 1.9¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Won
  No$352 @ 77.7¢
• Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
  Yes$28 @ 18.5¢
• Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
  No$772 @ 86.5¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$354 @ 48.8¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$25 @ 14.6¢
• SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?Won
  No$642 @ 84.0¢
• Will MrBeast hit 485 million subscribers by April 30?Won
  No$169 @ 89.0¢
• Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?Won
  No$25 @ 83.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
  No$135 @ 51.9¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
  Yes$9 @ 28.3¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
  Yes$24 @ 19.0¢
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Won
  Yes$271 @ 69.6¢
• Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Won
  Yes$1.0k @ 58.7¢
• Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?Won
  No$134 @ 89.0¢
• SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?Lost
  No$14 @ 7.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$21 @ 42.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$284 @ 47.3¢
• SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Lost
  No$238 @ 31.7¢
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?Won
  No$234 @ 85.2¢
• Chirayu Rana divorced?Won
  No$130 @ 87.0¢
• Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Won
  Yes$574 @ 41.3¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$379 @ 84.2¢
• Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam?Lost
  No$127 @ 82.7¢
• Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?Lost
  No$42 @ 42.0¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$898 @ 64.1¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$323 @ 53.8¢
• Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?Lost
  No$41 @ 27.0¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$504 @ 62.9¢
• Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$350 @ 86.8¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
  No$55 @ 78.1¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
  No$215 @ 86.0¢
• SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Won
  No$513 @ 46.8¢
• SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Lost
  Yes$178 @ 53.3¢
• Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?Won
  No$88 @ 88.0¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Lost
  No$56 @ 44.5¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
  Yes$266 @ 59.1¢

Current positions

• Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
  No$1.5k @ 50.0¢
• Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
  Yes$1.5k @ 50.0¢
• Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?Tech
  No$1.2k @ 84.2¢
• Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$1.1k @ 91.2¢
• Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$880 @ 88.0¢
• World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?Sports
  No$761 @ 95.1¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Politics
  No$648 @ 90.3¢
• Iran coup attempt by June 30?Politics
  No$592 @ 90.7¢
• Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
  No$534 @ 89.0¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$520 @ 86.7¢
• Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
  Yes$505 @ 63.1¢
• Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
  No$481 @ 96.1¢
• Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$450 @ 90.0¢
• Clavicular sentenced to prison?Culture
  No$243 @ 84.5¢
• Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?Crypto
  No$243 @ 81.0¢
• Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Politics
  No$243 @ 80.9¢
• 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
  Yes$238 @ 47.6¢
• Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?Crypto
  No$237 @ 73.0¢
• Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech
  Yes$204 @ 81.8¢
• Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  No$166 @ 82.9¢
• Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
  No$155 @ 78.2¢
• Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?Tech
  No$147 @ 87.4¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
  No$142 @ 57.4¢
• Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$134 @ 44.0¢
• Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?Crypto
  No$108 @ 81.0¢
• 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
  No$97 @ 77.6¢
• Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Geopolitics
  No$72 @ 71.7¢
• Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30?Culture
  No$69 @ 93.0¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
  No$61 @ 71.2¢
• Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
  Yes$56 @ 56.2¢