0xece7…3673

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xece740d3b31bd6bcae4e4236fac92ebe1dbb3673
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.1pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

56% @ 49.8¢

Brier

0.146

Resolved

458

Avg size

$40

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	65% (33/51)	-6%	51
Politics	69% (29/42)	+19%	42
Sports	57% (16/28)	+3%	28
Tech	36% (8/22)	+12%	22
Crypto	88% (7/8)	+48%	8
Geopolitics	71% (5/7)	+17%	7
Culture	50% (1/2)	-13%	2

Other51 bets
Hit rate
65% (33/51)
ROI
-6%
Politics42 bets
Hit rate
69% (29/42)
ROI
+19%
Sports28 bets
Hit rate
57% (16/28)
ROI
+3%
Tech22 bets
Hit rate
36% (8/22)
ROI
+12%
Crypto8 bets
Hit rate
88% (7/8)
ROI
+48%
Geopolitics7 bets
Hit rate
71% (5/7)
ROI
+17%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-13%

Track record

62% hit · 99/160

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$469	93.8¢	Won
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals	No	$23	64.3¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$534	89.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.2k	40.1¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-07-14?	Yes	$74	37.0¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by August 31?	No	$19	92.0¢	Won
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?	No	$1.9k	97.1¢	Won
Will England finish 3rd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$66	66.0¢	Lost
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	England	$54	54.0¢	Lost
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.8k	59.1¢	Won
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$100	33.2¢	Lost
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance	Spain	$130	65.0¢	Won
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?	No	$3	97.9¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$14	7.1¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$22	5.4¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by July 31?	No	$189	94.5¢	Won
Will 5+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$5	55.0¢	Lost
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$155	78.2¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$22	3.3¢	Lost
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Norway?	Yes	$9	9.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Norway?	Yes	$14	7.0¢	Lost
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 1.5	Over	$81	81.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$204	81.8¢	Won
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?	No	$140	94.1¢	Won
Will MrBeast hit 512 million subscribers by July 31?	No	$125	95.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast hit 512 million subscribers by July 31?	Yes	$57	66.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast hit 510 million subscribers by July 31?	Yes	$18	96.0¢	Won
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5	Under	$165	82.3¢	Won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	No	$58	58.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$591	38.1¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$67	41.9¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$93	37.2¢	Won
Spread: England (-2.5)	Croatia	$87	87.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$61	60.5¢	Won
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	No	$90	72.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$187	41.6¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$84	27.7¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$25	14.6¢	Lost
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 0.5	Over	$43	85.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	$460	32.9¢	Lost
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	Over	$82	82.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	$114	24.7¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$477	74.7¢	Won
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	$143	35.7¢	Lost
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	No	$26	51.0¢	Lost
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 7.5 Corners	Under	$123	61.5¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	$176	88.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$284	47.3¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	$202	31.0¢	Lost

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$469 @ 93.8¢
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goalsWon
No$23 @ 64.3¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$534 @ 89.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 40.1¢
Will France win on 2026-07-14?Lost
Yes$74 @ 37.0¢
Iran leadership change by August 31?Won
No$19 @ 92.0¢
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?Won
No$1.9k @ 97.1¢
Will England finish 3rd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$66 @ 66.0¢
England vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceLost
England$54 @ 54.0¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$1.8k @ 59.1¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$100 @ 33.2¢
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceWon
Spain$130 @ 65.0¢
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?Won
No$3 @ 97.9¢
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$14 @ 7.1¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$22 @ 5.4¢
Iran leadership change by July 31?Won
No$189 @ 94.5¢
Will 5+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$5 @ 55.0¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$155 @ 78.2¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$22 @ 3.3¢
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Norway?Lost
Yes$9 @ 9.0¢
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Norway?Lost
Yes$14 @ 7.0¢
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 1.5Won
Over$81 @ 81.0¢
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?Won
Yes$204 @ 81.8¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?Won
No$140 @ 94.1¢
Will MrBeast hit 512 million subscribers by July 31?Won
No$125 @ 95.0¢
Will MrBeast hit 512 million subscribers by July 31?Lost
Yes$57 @ 66.0¢
Will MrBeast hit 510 million subscribers by July 31?Won
Yes$18 @ 96.0¢
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5Won
Under$165 @ 82.3¢
Portugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to ScoreLost
No$58 @ 58.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$591 @ 38.1¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Won
Yes$67 @ 41.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$93 @ 37.2¢
Spread: England (-2.5)Won
Croatia$87 @ 87.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$61 @ 60.5¢
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfWon
No$90 @ 72.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$187 @ 41.6¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$84 @ 27.7¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$25 @ 14.6¢
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 0.5Won
Over$43 @ 85.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$460 @ 32.9¢
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5Won
Over$82 @ 82.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$114 @ 24.7¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$477 @ 74.7¢
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Lost
Yes$143 @ 35.7¢
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to ScoreLost
No$26 @ 51.0¢
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 7.5 CornersLost
Under$123 @ 61.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?Won
No$176 @ 88.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$284 @ 47.3¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Lost
No$202 @ 31.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5.8k	81.3¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$2.9k	87.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$2.2k	83.4¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$975	97.5¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$784	84.1¢
Will MrBeast hit 518 million subscribers by September 30?	—	Yes	$641	92.9¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$465	93.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$408	81.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?	Tech	No	$285	95.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	—	No	$279	86.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$240	80.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$238	47.6¢
Will MrBeast hit 519 million subscribers by September 30?	—	Yes	$212	74.3¢
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?	Politics	No	$159	86.4¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Politics	No	$142	57.4¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$133	44.0¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$128	73.1¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$97	77.6¢
Will MrBeast hit 140.5 billion views by September 30?	—	Yes	$95	99.1¢
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Politics	No	$72	72.0¢
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Politics	Yes	$67	16.6¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$54	26.9¢
Will MrBeast hit 526 million subscribers by September 30?	—	No	$43	97.4¢
Will MrBeast hit 141 billion views by September 30?	—	Yes	$34	98.0¢
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$7	91.0¢
Will MrBeast hit 521 million subscribers by September 30?	—	No	$3	62.0¢

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$5.8k @ 81.3¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Geopolitics
No$2.9k @ 87.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$2.2k @ 83.4¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?Geopolitics
No$975 @ 97.5¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$784 @ 84.1¢
Will MrBeast hit 518 million subscribers by September 30?—
Yes$641 @ 92.9¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$465 @ 93.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Tech
No$408 @ 81.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?Tech
No$285 @ 95.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?—
No$279 @ 86.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$240 @ 80.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$238 @ 47.6¢
Will MrBeast hit 519 million subscribers by September 30?—
Yes$212 @ 74.3¢
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?Politics
No$159 @ 86.4¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
No$142 @ 57.4¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$133 @ 44.0¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$128 @ 73.1¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$97 @ 77.6¢
Will MrBeast hit 140.5 billion views by September 30?—
Yes$95 @ 99.1¢
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Politics
No$72 @ 72.0¢
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Politics
Yes$67 @ 16.6¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$54 @ 26.9¢
Will MrBeast hit 526 million subscribers by September 30?—
No$43 @ 97.4¢
Will MrBeast hit 141 billion views by September 30?—
Yes$34 @ 98.0¢
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?Politics
No$7 @ 91.0¢
Will MrBeast hit 521 million subscribers by September 30?—
No$3 @ 62.0¢