0xebab…cff5

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xebaba6d3c08c5fff3d444ce0f751e6d97f15cff5
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.7pp

ROI

+13%

Win rate

89% @ 75.3¢

Brier

0.084

Resolved

146

Avg size

$368

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Sports	86% (12/14)	+35%	14
Other	78% (7/9)	+9%	9
Tech	100% (5/5)	+22%	5
Politics	40% (2/5)	-20%	5
Geopolitics	50% (2/4)	+10%	4
Economy	100% (1/1)	+56%	1

Sports14 bets
Hit rate
86% (12/14)
ROI
+35%
Other9 bets
Hit rate
78% (7/9)
ROI
+9%
Tech5 bets
Hit rate
100% (5/5)
ROI
+22%
Politics5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
-20%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+10%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+56%

Track record

76% hit · 29/38

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$16	88.0¢	Won
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$600	30.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.3k	85.8¢	Won
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$71	71.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$21	1.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$1.7k	78.0¢	Won
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	$51	59.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$83	83.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	$4.2k	83.0¢	Won
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$31	80.0¢	Won
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$42	0.4¢	Lost
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$2.7k	45.8¢	Won
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	$51	68.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?	Yes	$2.0k	80.4¢	Won
Will Czechia finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	$35	72.0¢	Won
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Over	$26	50.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$870	87.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	Yes	$674	64.9¢	Lost
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	$6.7k	64.1¢	Won
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$1.4k	89.7¢	Won
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$515	86.0¢	Won
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	$26	43.0¢	Won
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	No	$10	51.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$4.8k	68.5¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	77.3¢	Won
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$883	88.0¢	Won
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$3.0k	89.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	$3.0k	90.0¢	Won
Korea Republic to score first vs. South Africa?	Yes	$51	65.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?	No	$992	81.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?	No	$3.7k	86.9¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	No	$8.7k	87.3¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?	No	$459	79.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$1.5k	83.5¢	Won
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$25	58.0¢	Won
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$210	41.6¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?	No	$446	89.0¢	Won
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$1.5k	88.0¢	Won

Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Won
Yes$16 @ 88.0¢
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$600 @ 30.0¢
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 85.8¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$71 @ 71.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$21 @ 1.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$1.7k @ 78.0¢
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?Lost
Yes$51 @ 59.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?Won
Yes$83 @ 83.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?Won
No$4.2k @ 83.0¢
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$31 @ 80.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$42 @ 0.4¢
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$2.7k @ 45.8¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?Won
Yes$51 @ 68.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 80.4¢
Will Czechia finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?Won
Yes$35 @ 72.0¢
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5Won
Over$26 @ 50.0¢
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?Won
Yes$870 @ 87.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?Lost
Yes$674 @ 64.9¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Won
Yes$6.7k @ 64.1¢
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$1.4k @ 89.7¢
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$515 @ 86.0¢
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?Won
Yes$26 @ 43.0¢
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?Won
No$10 @ 51.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$4.8k @ 68.5¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 77.3¢
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$883 @ 88.0¢
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$3.0k @ 89.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Won
No$3.0k @ 90.0¢
Korea Republic to score first vs. South Africa?Lost
Yes$51 @ 65.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?Won
No$992 @ 81.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?Won
No$3.7k @ 86.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Won
No$8.7k @ 87.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?Won
No$459 @ 79.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 83.5¢
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to ScoreWon
Yes$25 @ 58.0¢
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$210 @ 41.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?Won
No$446 @ 89.0¢
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$1.5k @ 88.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?	Politics	No	$1.1k	95.5¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.0k	51.5¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$790	39.5¢

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?Politics
No$1.1k @ 95.5¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?Politics
Yes$1.0k @ 51.5¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?Politics
Yes$790 @ 39.5¢