0xea85…12dd

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xea85ab56e7e65b065076e7a26e9792f3572812dd
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+10.2pp

ROI

+9%

Win rate

54% @ 44.0¢

Brier

0.157

Resolved

190

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	51% (29/57)	-3%	57
Other	51% (25/49)	-8%	49
Geopolitics	43% (6/14)	-1%	14
Sports	50% (6/12)	-9%	12
Crypto	50% (3/6)	+31%	6
Tech	100% (2/2)	+105%	2
Science	100% (1/1)	+14%	1
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics57 bets
Hit rate
51% (29/57)
ROI
-3%
Other49 bets
Hit rate
51% (25/49)
ROI
-8%
Geopolitics14 bets
Hit rate
43% (6/14)
ROI
-1%
Sports12 bets
Hit rate
50% (6/12)
ROI
-9%
Crypto6 bets
Hit rate
50% (3/6)
ROI
+31%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+105%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+14%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

51% hit · 72/142

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	Yes	$1	71.0¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	$12	14.0¢	Lost
Will Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	$1	3.7¢	Lost
Will Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	$11	94.5¢	Won
Will Trump say "Gaza" in August?	Yes	$1	88.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$3	97.1¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$8	96.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$23	90.9¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$1	21.0¢	Won
Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	$1	7.6¢	Lost
Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	$1	91.9¢	Won
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?	Yes	$3	97.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$3	91.0¢	Won
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	20.0¢	Lost
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	$19	69.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Tehran" in August?	Yes	$1	91.0¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by July 31?	Yes	$1	20.0¢	Lost
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?	Yes	$1	95.4¢	Won
Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?	No	$215	95.2¢	Won
Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?	No	$1	59.0¢	Lost
Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?	Yes	$1	94.0¢	Won
Will Alana Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	$2	1.8¢	Lost
Will Alana Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	$6	91.1¢	Won
Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	$2	4.3¢	Lost
Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	$12	96.7¢	Won
Ukraine strikes another tanker in the Caspian Sea by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	73.0¢	Lost
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?	No	$42	97.4¢	Won
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?	Yes	$1	4.1¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?	No	$1	44.0¢	Lost
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$16	91.5¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?	Yes	$37	99.7¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?	Yes	$23	99.9¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?	Yes	$1	42.0¢	Lost
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 17?	Yes	$44	99.0¢	Won
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 31?	Yes	$19	99.5¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?	No	$6	33.0¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?	Yes	$3	79.0¢	Lost
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by July 2?	Yes	$1	93.7¢	Lost
Jay Clayton confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by December 31?	Yes	$2	99.8¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$4	84.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$4	25.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?	No	$21	38.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	20.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$72	23.7¢	Lost
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	98.3¢	Won
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in July?	Yes	$1	3.3¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	Yes	$1	35.0¢	Lost
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami?	No	$775	99.9¢	Won
Kash Patel out by July 31?	Yes	$1	12.4¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?	No	$2	39.6¢	Won

NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Won
Yes$1 @ 71.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Lost
Yes$12 @ 14.0¢
Will Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Lost
No$1 @ 3.7¢
Will Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Won
Yes$11 @ 94.5¢
Will Trump say "Gaza" in August?Lost
Yes$1 @ 88.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$3 @ 97.1¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?Won
Yes$8 @ 96.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$23 @ 90.9¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$1 @ 21.0¢
Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Lost
No$1 @ 7.6¢
Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Won
Yes$1 @ 91.9¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?Won
Yes$3 @ 97.0¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$3 @ 91.0¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 20.0¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Lost
No$19 @ 69.0¢
Will Trump say "Tehran" in August?Lost
Yes$1 @ 91.0¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by July 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 20.0¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?Won
Yes$1 @ 95.4¢
Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?Won
No$215 @ 95.2¢
Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?Lost
No$1 @ 59.0¢
Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?Won
Yes$1 @ 94.0¢
Will Alana Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Lost
No$2 @ 1.8¢
Will Alana Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Won
Yes$6 @ 91.1¢
Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Lost
No$2 @ 4.3¢
Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Won
Yes$12 @ 96.7¢
Ukraine strikes another tanker in the Caspian Sea by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 73.0¢
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?Won
No$42 @ 97.4¢
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.1¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?Lost
No$1 @ 44.0¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$16 @ 91.5¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?Won
Yes$37 @ 99.7¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?Won
Yes$23 @ 99.9¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 42.0¢
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 17?Won
Yes$44 @ 99.0¢
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 31?Won
Yes$19 @ 99.5¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?Won
No$6 @ 33.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?Lost
Yes$3 @ 79.0¢
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by July 2?Lost
Yes$1 @ 93.7¢
Jay Clayton confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by December 31?Won
Yes$2 @ 99.8¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 84.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 25.9¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$21 @ 38.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 20.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$72 @ 23.7¢
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 98.3¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in July?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.3¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 35.0¢
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami?Won
No$775 @ 99.9¢
Kash Patel out by July 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 12.4¢
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?Won
No$2 @ 39.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$66	25.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$33	72.3¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$30	17.2¢
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Politics	No	$10	97.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$9	21.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$9	32.0¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$8	55.0¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Science	No	$7	91.5¢
Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	Yes	$6	83.0¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	Yes	$5	16.4¢
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4	32.2¢
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Sports	Yes	$4	38.4¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$2	70.0¢
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	Yes	$2	36.0¢
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$2	87.0¢
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$2	55.2¢
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$2	15.5¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$2	32.0¢
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1	20.0¢
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Politics	No	$1	98.0¢
Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?	—	No	$1	62.0¢
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$1	78.9¢
Will Don Lemon announce a presidential run before 2027?	Politics	No	$1	98.7¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Politics	Yes	$1	74.0¢
Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	No	$1	41.0¢
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1	36.0¢
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	31.0¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	—	Yes	$1	26.0¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$1	23.0¢
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$1	18.0¢

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$66 @ 25.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$33 @ 72.3¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
Yes$30 @ 17.2¢
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?Politics
No$10 @ 97.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$9 @ 21.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$9 @ 32.0¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
Yes$8 @ 55.0¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
No$7 @ 91.5¢
Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
Yes$6 @ 83.0¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
Yes$5 @ 16.4¢
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$4 @ 32.2¢
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Sports
Yes$4 @ 38.4¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
Yes$2 @ 70.0¢
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
Yes$2 @ 36.0¢
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?Politics
Yes$2 @ 87.0¢
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$2 @ 55.2¢
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?Politics
Yes$2 @ 15.5¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?Politics
Yes$2 @ 32.0¢
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$1 @ 20.0¢
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Politics
No$1 @ 98.0¢
Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?—
No$1 @ 62.0¢
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?Geopolitics
No$1 @ 78.9¢
Will Don Lemon announce a presidential run before 2027?Politics
No$1 @ 98.7¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
Yes$1 @ 74.0¢
Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
No$1 @ 41.0¢
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?Politics
Yes$1 @ 36.0¢
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 31.0¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?—
Yes$1 @ 26.0¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?Politics
Yes$1 @ 23.0¢
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Politics
Yes$1 @ 18.0¢