0xe9ce…711f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xe9ce222d479d488f8901a342ecb778eb9cbd711f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+11.6pp

ROI

+3%

Win rate

52% @ 40.7¢

Brier

0.153

Resolved

201

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	41% (20/49)	-26%	49
Other	46% (18/39)	+4%	39
Sports	50% (2/4)	+8%	4
Crypto	50% (2/4)	+78%	4
Tech	50% (1/2)	-6%	2
Geopolitics	50% (1/2)	-87%	2
Economy	100% (1/1)	+12%	1
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics49 bets
Hit rate
41% (20/49)
ROI
-26%
Other39 bets
Hit rate
46% (18/39)
ROI
+4%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+8%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+78%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-6%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-87%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+12%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

44% hit · 45/102

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$25	68.1¢	Won
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?	Yes	$1	62.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	No	$4	35.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	89.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$2	78.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$151	22.6¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$85	14.1¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$7	78.8¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$5	17.3¢	Lost
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	$6	49.7¢	Won
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	No	$1	55.0¢	Lost
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$8	27.1¢	Lost
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$1	47.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$4	21.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$191	47.8¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$12	2.2¢	Lost
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	$7	65.0¢	Lost
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	$1	33.0¢	Won
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$3	66.0¢	Lost
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	$4	1.6¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$117	16.6¢	Lost
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$4	82.0¢	Won
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	$5	2.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$115	41.7¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	$13	12.0¢	Lost
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	$4	90.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$5	9.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	$5	80.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$12	8.1¢	Lost
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score	No	$6	24.8¢	Lost
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$15	77.0¢	Won
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	$5	54.0¢	Lost
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	No	$1	12.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	$15	26.4¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$69	62.0¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	$2	2.9¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$2	28.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	$19	40.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	$21	73.7¢	Won
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?	No	$1	17.7¢	Lost
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$10	77.0¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	$10	6.2¢	Lost
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	$64	89.0¢	Won
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	Yes	$9	83.0¢	Lost
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	No	$2	52.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$33	43.1¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026?	Yes	$4	88.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	No	$2	29.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$4	72.7¢	Won
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?	No	$2	22.8¢	Lost

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$25 @ 68.1¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?Won
Yes$1 @ 62.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 35.9¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 89.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 78.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$151 @ 22.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$85 @ 14.1¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$7 @ 78.8¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$5 @ 17.3¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Won
Yes$6 @ 49.7¢
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?Lost
No$1 @ 55.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$8 @ 27.1¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$1 @ 47.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 21.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$191 @ 47.8¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$12 @ 2.2¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Lost
No$7 @ 65.0¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Won
Yes$1 @ 33.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
No$3 @ 66.0¢
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?Lost
Yes$4 @ 1.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$117 @ 16.6¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$4 @ 82.0¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$115 @ 41.7¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Lost
No$13 @ 12.0¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Won
Yes$4 @ 90.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 9.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 80.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$12 @ 8.1¢
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to ScoreLost
No$6 @ 24.8¢
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to ScoreWon
Yes$15 @ 77.0¢
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?Lost
Yes$5 @ 54.0¢
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?Lost
No$1 @ 12.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$15 @ 26.4¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$69 @ 62.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.9¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$2 @ 28.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Won
Yes$19 @ 40.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Won
No$21 @ 73.7¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?Lost
No$1 @ 17.7¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 77.0¢
Will Trump visit China by May 31?Lost
No$10 @ 6.2¢
Will Trump visit China by May 31?Won
Yes$64 @ 89.0¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?Lost
Yes$9 @ 83.0¢
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Won
No$2 @ 52.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$33 @ 43.1¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$4 @ 88.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 29.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$4 @ 72.7¢
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 22.8¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$74	80.9¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$43	72.8¢
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?	—	No	$30	76.6¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$17	44.5¢
Trump goes to space in 2026?	Politics	No	$14	97.3¢
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31?	Politics	No	$13	94.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$10	62.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	—	Yes	$7	12.2¢
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$7	92.0¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	—	No	$7	68.0¢
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	—	Yes	$6	58.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$5	14.9¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Politics	No	$5	30.4¢
Will OpenAI announce a computer (Laptop/Desktop) in 2026?	Tech	No	$5	93.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Politics	No	$5	57.0¢
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?	Tech	No	$5	90.0¢
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	—	No	$4	92.0¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	No	$4	91.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?	—	Yes	$4	12.7¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	—	No	$4	76.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3	26.0¢
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$3	0.9¢
Will Venezuela become 51st state?	Politics	No	$3	94.1¢
Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026?	Tech	No	$3	96.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	—	No	$2	22.0¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$2	34.0¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Politics	No	$2	76.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August?	—	Yes	$2	4.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	—	No	$2	57.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	—	Yes	$1	44.3¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$74 @ 80.9¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
Yes$43 @ 72.8¢
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?—
No$30 @ 76.6¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$17 @ 44.5¢
Trump goes to space in 2026?Politics
No$14 @ 97.3¢
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31?Politics
No$13 @ 94.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?—
No$10 @ 62.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?—
Yes$7 @ 12.2¢
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$7 @ 92.0¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?—
No$7 @ 68.0¢
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?—
Yes$6 @ 58.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$5 @ 14.9¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
No$5 @ 30.4¢
Will OpenAI announce a computer (Laptop/Desktop) in 2026?Tech
No$5 @ 93.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
No$5 @ 57.0¢
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?Tech
No$5 @ 90.0¢
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?—
No$4 @ 92.0¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
No$4 @ 91.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?—
Yes$4 @ 12.7¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?—
No$4 @ 76.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$3 @ 26.0¢
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$3 @ 0.9¢
Will Venezuela become 51st state?Politics
No$3 @ 94.1¢
Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026?Tech
No$3 @ 96.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?—
No$2 @ 22.0¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Politics
Yes$2 @ 34.0¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
No$2 @ 76.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August?—
Yes$2 @ 4.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?—
No$2 @ 57.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?—
Yes$1 @ 44.3¢