0xe8a6…644b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xe8a68017820cc850b4d13cfd8a165eb438b4644b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.3pp

ROI

+27%

Win rate

31% @ 25.2¢

Brier

0.107

Resolved

3280

Avg size

$18

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	35% (35/100)	+16%	100
Politics	34% (26/77)	+45%	77
Sports	20% (9/46)	-13%	46
Geopolitics	29% (6/21)	-55%	21
Tech	25% (2/8)	+85%	8
Science	17% (1/6)	+22%	6
Culture	33% (1/3)	-26%	3

Other100 bets
Hit rate
35% (35/100)
ROI
+16%
Politics77 bets
Hit rate
34% (26/77)
ROI
+45%
Sports46 bets
Hit rate
20% (9/46)
ROI
-13%
Geopolitics21 bets
Hit rate
29% (6/21)
ROI
-55%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
25% (2/8)
ROI
+85%
Science6 bets
Hit rate
17% (1/6)
ROI
+22%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-26%

Track record

31% hit · 80/261

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	No	$43	85.0¢	Won
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will David Lammy be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Lost
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	$13	68.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$85	0.6¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Orlando Magic in 2026-27?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$289	11.8¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?	Yes	$18	0.6¢	Lost
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026?	No	$1.8k	60.3¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$168	84.0¢	Won
Spread: UCLA (-7.5)	Purdue	$29	53.0¢	Lost
Colts vs. Chiefs	Colts	$15	29.0¢	Lost
Houston vs. Texas Tech	Texas Tech	$76	76.0¢	Won
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$9	18.0¢	Lost
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$22	11.2¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	$28	2.5¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	No	$702	87.8¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	$127	7.4¢	Lost
1H Spread: Lions (-6.5)	Saints	$48	9.6¢	Lost
Lions vs. Bills: 1H O/U 28.5	Under	$14	35.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Yes	$939	55.9¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$162	81.0¢	Won
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$13	4.2¢	Lost
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$93	23.1¢	Lost
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2?	Yes	$51	25.5¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Won
Will New York City FC win on 2026-09-26?	Yes	$59	58.0¢	Lost
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$5	2.4¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$49	12.2¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?	No	$52	52.2¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 18, 2026?	Yes	$64	87.6¢	Won
Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $7.00 (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?	No	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$298	74.5¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	No	$646	80.7¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$2	2.0¢	Lost
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	$28	7.5¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	Yes	$526	25.5¢	Lost
Will PepsiCo (PEP) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$4	7.3¢	Won
Will PepsiCo (PEP) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$28	84.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?	Yes	$1	17.0¢	Lost
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$1.2k	42.4¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$154	4.4¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 29, 2026?	Yes	$78	88.3¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 21, 2026?	No	$0	6.0¢	Lost
Will Mallory McMorrow endorse Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	Yes	$114	28.6¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 17, 2026?	Yes	$81	87.8¢	Won
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?	Yes	$56	34.6¢	Lost

Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Won
No$43 @ 85.0¢
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will David Lammy be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Won
Yes$13 @ 68.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$85 @ 0.6¢
Will LeBron James play for the Orlando Magic in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$289 @ 11.8¢
Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$18 @ 0.6¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026?Won
No$1.8k @ 60.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$168 @ 84.0¢
Spread: UCLA (-7.5)Lost
Purdue$29 @ 53.0¢
Colts vs. ChiefsLost
Colts$15 @ 29.0¢
Houston vs. Texas TechWon
Texas Tech$76 @ 76.0¢
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 18.0¢
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$22 @ 11.2¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$28 @ 2.5¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Won
No$702 @ 87.8¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$127 @ 7.4¢
1H Spread: Lions (-6.5)Lost
Saints$48 @ 9.6¢
Lions vs. Bills: 1H O/U 28.5Lost
Under$14 @ 35.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Lost
Yes$939 @ 55.9¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$162 @ 81.0¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$13 @ 4.2¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$93 @ 23.1¢
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2?Lost
Yes$51 @ 25.5¢
Will LeBron James play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will New York City FC win on 2026-09-26?Lost
Yes$59 @ 58.0¢
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.4¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$49 @ 12.2¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?Won
No$52 @ 52.2¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 18, 2026?Won
Yes$64 @ 87.6¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $7.00 (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$0 @ 1.0¢
Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$298 @ 74.5¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Won
No$646 @ 80.7¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$28 @ 7.5¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Lost
Yes$526 @ 25.5¢
Will PepsiCo (PEP) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$4 @ 7.3¢
Will PepsiCo (PEP) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
Yes$28 @ 84.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 17.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$1.2k @ 42.4¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$154 @ 4.4¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 29, 2026?Won
Yes$78 @ 88.3¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 21, 2026?Lost
No$0 @ 6.0¢
Will Mallory McMorrow endorse Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?Lost
Yes$114 @ 28.6¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 17, 2026?Won
Yes$81 @ 87.8¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?Lost
Yes$56 @ 34.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$26.3k	50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$26.3k	50.0¢
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	No	$283	92.1¢
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$254	82.0¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$219	70.9¢
Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?	Politics	Yes	$195	63.2¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$175	78.3¢
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	No	$158	88.8¢
Will Ilia Topuria fight Charles Oliveira next?	Sports	No	$153	91.6¢
Canada's population Up or Down this year?	Politics	Down	$147	76.4¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.50 on December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$131	68.2¢
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	Politics	No	$127	94.2¢
Packers vs. Buccaneers: O/U 37.5	Sports	Under	$116	40.0¢
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$106	53.0¢
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?	Politics	Yes	$104	37.8¢
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$96	48.0¢
Will Arman Tsarukyan fight Charles Oliveira next?	Sports	Yes	$88	27.2¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$84	21.0¢
UFC 332: Roman Kopylov vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Main Card)	Sports	Roman Kopylov	$83	33.9¢
Over $140B wagered on US sports betting in 2026?	Sports	Yes	$77	85.3¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$69	45.1¢
US recession by end of 2026?	Economy	Yes	$62	31.0¢
Dana White's Contender Series: Ilias Bulaid vs. Erick Visconde (Featherweight, Main Card)	Sports	Erick Visconde	$54	45.3¢
UFC 332: Johnny Walker vs. Mick Parkin (Heavyweight, Early Prelims)	Sports	Johnny Walker	$54	54.0¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$50	25.0¢
Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$47	42.6¢
Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?	Science	No	$45	89.5¢
UFC 332: Alden Coria vs. Imanol Rodriguez (Flyweight, Prelims)	Sports	Imanol Rodriguez	$44	57.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$43	43.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$43	35.6¢

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$26.3k @ 50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$26.3k @ 50.0¢
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
No$283 @ 92.1¢
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$254 @ 82.0¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026?Tech
No$219 @ 70.9¢
Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?Politics
Yes$195 @ 63.2¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?Tech
No$175 @ 78.3¢
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
No$158 @ 88.8¢
Will Ilia Topuria fight Charles Oliveira next?Sports
No$153 @ 91.6¢
Canada's population Up or Down this year?Politics
Down$147 @ 76.4¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.50 on December 31, 2026?Tech
No$131 @ 68.2¢
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?Politics
No$127 @ 94.2¢
Packers vs. Buccaneers: O/U 37.5Sports
Under$116 @ 40.0¢
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
Yes$106 @ 53.0¢
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?Politics
Yes$104 @ 37.8¢
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
Yes$96 @ 48.0¢
Will Arman Tsarukyan fight Charles Oliveira next?Sports
Yes$88 @ 27.2¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
Yes$84 @ 21.0¢
UFC 332: Roman Kopylov vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Main Card)Sports
Roman Kopylov$83 @ 33.9¢
Over $140B wagered on US sports betting in 2026?Sports
Yes$77 @ 85.3¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
Yes$69 @ 45.1¢
US recession by end of 2026?Economy
Yes$62 @ 31.0¢
Dana White's Contender Series: Ilias Bulaid vs. Erick Visconde (Featherweight, Main Card)Sports
Erick Visconde$54 @ 45.3¢
UFC 332: Johnny Walker vs. Mick Parkin (Heavyweight, Early Prelims)Sports
Johnny Walker$54 @ 54.0¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics
Yes$50 @ 25.0¢
Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$47 @ 42.6¢
Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?Science
No$45 @ 89.5¢
UFC 332: Alden Coria vs. Imanol Rodriguez (Flyweight, Prelims)Sports
Imanol Rodriguez$44 @ 57.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$43 @ 43.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
Yes$43 @ 35.6¢