0xe879…6d22

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xe8795bd3d265b046b9c4822c9fd06ea391dc6d22
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+18.8pp

ROI

+52%

Win rate

92% @ 73.3¢

Brier

0.089

Resolved

152

Avg size

$168

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	90% (35/39)	+23%	39
Politics	68% (17/25)	+25%	25
Geopolitics	100% (6/6)	+26%	6
Crypto	67% (2/3)	+191%	3
Economy	100% (2/2)	+31%	2
Culture	100% (1/1)	+16%	1

Other39 bets
Hit rate
90% (35/39)
ROI
+23%
Politics25 bets
Hit rate
68% (17/25)
ROI
+25%
Geopolitics6 bets
Hit rate
100% (6/6)
ROI
+26%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+191%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+31%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+16%

Track record

83% hit · 63/76

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	No	$168	86.0¢	Won
Will Vitality win BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026?	Yes	$75	75.0¢	Won
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	$293	63.8¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$1.1k	84.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$3.2k	77.7¢	Won
Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	$104	86.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	$8	82.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$3.3k	30.5¢	Won
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Yes	$293	55.5¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?	No	$210	84.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$766	28.5¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$230	14.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$512	85.3¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$150	59.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	$74	37.0¢	Lost
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	$256	44.2¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	$352	88.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	$3.0k	87.5¢	Won
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?	Yes	$1.7k	85.8¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	$200	58.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	$207	76.2¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?	No	$567	88.7¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	$8.0k	79.6¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	$390	88.3¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in May?	No	$15	77.0¢	Won
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$220	88.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$303	46.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$30	73.0¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?	No	$50	84.0¢	Won
Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by April 30?	No	$50	78.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	Yes	$100	77.4¢	Won
Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30?	No	$44	88.0¢	Won
Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by April 30?	No	$50	79.0¢	Won
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	$12	89.0¢	Won
Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by April 30?	No	$50	78.0¢	Won
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30?	No	$200	81.4¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	No	$69	85.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	$177	84.1¢	Won
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	No	$102	85.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$54	88.6¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	Yes	$100	79.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B	Aurora Gaming	$11	65.0¢	Won
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$11	83.5¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	Yes	$50	21.0¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?	No	$584	87.0¢	Won
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?	No	$797	89.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$50	9.8¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	$60	75.5¢	Won
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?	No	$12	80.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: G2 vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A	G2	$85	69.0¢	Won

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Won
No$168 @ 86.0¢
Will Vitality win BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026?Won
Yes$75 @ 75.0¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Won
No$293 @ 63.8¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$1.1k @ 84.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$3.2k @ 77.7¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
No$104 @ 86.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Won
No$8 @ 82.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$3.3k @ 30.5¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Won
Yes$293 @ 55.5¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?Won
No$210 @ 84.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$766 @ 28.5¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$230 @ 14.9¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$512 @ 85.3¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$150 @ 59.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$74 @ 37.0¢
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?Lost
No$256 @ 44.2¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?Won
No$352 @ 88.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Won
No$3.0k @ 87.5¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 85.8¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?Won
Yes$200 @ 58.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Won
Yes$207 @ 76.2¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?Won
No$567 @ 88.7¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Won
Yes$8.0k @ 79.6¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?Won
No$390 @ 88.3¢
Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in May?Won
No$15 @ 77.0¢
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$220 @ 88.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$303 @ 46.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$30 @ 73.0¢
Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?Won
No$50 @ 84.0¢
Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by April 30?Won
No$50 @ 78.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Won
Yes$100 @ 77.4¢
Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30?Won
No$44 @ 88.0¢
Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by April 30?Won
No$50 @ 79.0¢
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?Won
No$12 @ 89.0¢
Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by April 30?Won
No$50 @ 78.0¢
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30?Won
No$200 @ 81.4¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?Won
No$69 @ 85.0¢
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?Won
No$177 @ 84.1¢
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Won
No$102 @ 85.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$54 @ 88.6¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Won
Yes$100 @ 79.0¢
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Rio Group BWon
Aurora Gaming$11 @ 65.0¢
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?Won
Yes$11 @ 83.5¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 21.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?Won
No$584 @ 87.0¢
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?Won
No$797 @ 89.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 9.8¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?Won
No$60 @ 75.5¢
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?Won
No$12 @ 80.0¢
Counter-Strike: G2 vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group AWon
G2$85 @ 69.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$1.6k	82.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	—	Yes	$1.3k	50.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$990	49.5¢
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?	—	No	$720	48.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$640	32.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$525	21.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$450	45.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$447	44.0¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$290	85.8¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$81	74.2¢
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	Politics	Yes	$77	95.4¢
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$59	64.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$49	26.0¢
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$23	91.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$19	85.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$3	64.0¢

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$1.6k @ 82.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?—
Yes$1.3k @ 50.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$990 @ 49.5¢
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?—
No$720 @ 48.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$640 @ 32.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$525 @ 21.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$450 @ 45.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$447 @ 44.0¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?—
No$290 @ 85.8¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$81 @ 74.2¢
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?Politics
Yes$77 @ 95.4¢
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?—
Yes$59 @ 64.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$49 @ 26.0¢
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$23 @ 91.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$19 @ 85.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$3 @ 64.0¢