0xe827…5209

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xe8278d22bef444ede84505b7c0ec4e4001305209
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.1pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

46% @ 42.3¢

Brier

0.200

Resolved

1683

Avg size

$143

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	48% (78/161)	+30%	161
Politics	44% (32/72)	+0%	72
Sports	36% (17/47)	-26%	47
Geopolitics	18% (2/11)	-66%	11
Tech	25% (2/8)	-61%	8
Crypto	67% (2/3)	+120%	3
Economy	50% (1/2)	+4%	2
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other161 bets
Hit rate
48% (78/161)
ROI
+30%
Politics72 bets
Hit rate
44% (32/72)
ROI
+0%
Sports47 bets
Hit rate
36% (17/47)
ROI
-26%
Geopolitics11 bets
Hit rate
18% (2/11)
ROI
-66%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
25% (2/8)
ROI
-61%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+120%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+4%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

44% hit · 134/305

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Lost
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals	No	$2.2k	64.5¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$1.5k	52.3¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	Yes	$1.4k	34.3¢	Lost
Fight to Go the Distance?	No	$177	38.5¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	No	$467	46.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$124	9.7¢	Lost
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?	No	$2.8k	40.0¢	Won
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10?	Yes	$511	73.0¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$236	30.1¢	Lost
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5	Under	$343	77.8¢	Won
Spurs vs. Knicks	Knicks	$9.1k	36.8¢	Lost
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Over	$430	43.0¢	Lost
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Under	$306	51.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$198	66.1¢	Won
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during coal announcement?	Yes	$3	58.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$873	58.2¢	Won
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	Yes	$390	26.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$906	65.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$8.6k	30.5¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$85	51.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$170	56.7¢	Lost
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	Yes	$212	70.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast say "Eliminate" or "Eliminated" during his next YouTube video?	No	$0	6.0¢	Won
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals	No	$1.3k	39.6¢	Lost
Knicks vs. Spurs	Knicks	$1.1k	33.1¢	Won
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$17	49.6¢	Won
Will Trump say "Stupid person" this week?	No	$1	5.0¢	Lost
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance	Netherlands	$34	49.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$1.8k	15.3¢	Lost
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17?	No	$4.4k	47.0¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-07-14?	No	$17.5k	82.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	No	$217	78.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$5.8k	66.3¢	Won
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	No	$520	52.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$676	22.4¢	Lost
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5	Under	$417	41.0¢	Won
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	$331	86.1¢	Won
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13?	No	$135	34.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	$1.0k	17.1¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$252	12.6¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$1.5k	76.3¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$987	51.8¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$655	29.7¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	No	$136	60.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	$366	36.6¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	$56	46.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	$253	51.8¢	Won
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.9k	67.9¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$897	89.7¢	Won

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goalsWon
No$2.2k @ 64.5¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$1.5k @ 52.3¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 34.3¢
Fight to Go the Distance?Lost
No$177 @ 38.5¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Lost
No$467 @ 46.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$124 @ 9.7¢
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?Won
No$2.8k @ 40.0¢
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10?Won
Yes$511 @ 73.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$236 @ 30.1¢
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5Won
Under$343 @ 77.8¢
Spurs vs. KnicksLost
Knicks$9.1k @ 36.8¢
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5Lost
Over$430 @ 43.0¢
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5Won
Under$306 @ 51.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$198 @ 66.1¢
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during coal announcement?Won
Yes$3 @ 58.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$873 @ 58.2¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?Lost
Yes$390 @ 26.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$906 @ 65.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$8.6k @ 30.5¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$85 @ 51.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$170 @ 56.7¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Won
Yes$212 @ 70.0¢
Will MrBeast say "Eliminate" or "Eliminated" during his next YouTube video?Won
No$0 @ 6.0¢
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsLost
No$1.3k @ 39.6¢
Knicks vs. SpursWon
Knicks$1.1k @ 33.1¢
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$17 @ 49.6¢
Will Trump say "Stupid person" this week?Lost
No$1 @ 5.0¢
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to AdvanceLost
Netherlands$34 @ 49.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.8k @ 15.3¢
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17?Won
No$4.4k @ 47.0¢
Will France win on 2026-07-14?Won
No$17.5k @ 82.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?Won
No$217 @ 78.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$5.8k @ 66.3¢
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?Won
No$520 @ 52.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$676 @ 22.4¢
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5Won
Under$417 @ 41.0¢
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Won
Yes$331 @ 86.1¢
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13?Won
No$135 @ 34.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 17.1¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
No$252 @ 12.6¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 76.3¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$987 @ 51.8¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$655 @ 29.7¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Won
No$136 @ 60.0¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Lost
Yes$366 @ 36.6¢
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?Lost
No$56 @ 46.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$253 @ 51.8¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.9k @ 67.9¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$897 @ 89.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	Crypto	No	$318	68.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$296	36.0¢
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	Crypto	No	$202	36.9¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$154	19.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$154	6.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$80	16.0¢
1. FC Cologne vs. Real Sociedad San Sebastian: O/U 13.5 Total Corners	—	Under	$3	50.0¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$2	33.0¢

Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?Crypto
No$318 @ 68.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Geopolitics
No$296 @ 36.0¢
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?Crypto
No$202 @ 36.9¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Tech
Yes$154 @ 19.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
Yes$154 @ 6.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Geopolitics
No$80 @ 16.0¢
1. FC Cologne vs. Real Sociedad San Sebastian: O/U 13.5 Total Corners—
Under$3 @ 50.0¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
Yes$2 @ 33.0¢