0xe6e5…8e81

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xe6e53d1135e87edd8d404ed52b3e937983cb8e81
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.2pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

42% @ 38.1¢

Brier

0.174

Resolved

701

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	44% (46/104)	+16%	104
Other	32% (8/25)	+7%	25
Geopolitics	33% (4/12)	-51%	12
Culture	17% (1/6)	-65%	6
Crypto	75% (3/4)	+206%	4
Tech	100% (2/2)	+109%	2
Sports	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Science	50% (1/2)	-55%	2

Politics104 bets
Hit rate
44% (46/104)
ROI
+16%
Other25 bets
Hit rate
32% (8/25)
ROI
+7%
Geopolitics12 bets
Hit rate
33% (4/12)
ROI
-51%
Culture6 bets
Hit rate
17% (1/6)
ROI
-65%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+206%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+109%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Science2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-55%

Track record

41% hit · 65/157

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$1	82.0¢	Lost
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?	Yes	$3	36.5¢	Won
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m?	Yes	$2	13.0¢	Lost
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	Yes	$2	33.0¢	Lost
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims)	Jim Miller	$8	28.7¢	Won
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 0% and 5%?	Yes	$1	36.0¢	Lost
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$19	55.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$10	86.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$66	5.1¢	Lost
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?	Yes	$2	18.7¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	58.6¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$3	88.0¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$5	82.0¢	Lost
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?	No	$7	76.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Yes	$1	54.0¢	Lost
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?	No	$2	70.5¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$1	47.0¢	Lost
Will there be fewer than 2 North Korea tests in May 2026?	No	$1	62.0¢	Lost
Will there be fewer than 2 North Korea tests in May 2026?	Yes	$1	52.0¢	Won
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?	Yes	$1	28.0¢	Lost
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$9	39.6¢	Won
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	No	$1	85.0¢	Won
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	17.0¢	Lost
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$3	52.2¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$3	48.4¢	Lost
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?	Yes	$1	12.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	No	$2	43.9¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$1	62.3¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$38	0.7¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Juan Diaz	$26	32.3¢	Won
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by less than 5%?	Yes	$1	85.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$1	45.1¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$29	79.3¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$43	12.7¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)	Polyana Viana	$25	37.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$3	8.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$15	26.7¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Lost
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	$3	61.8¢	Lost
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims)	Clayton Carpenter	$1	38.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?	No	$1	85.0¢	Won
Trump out as President by May 31?	Yes	$4	0.4¢	Lost
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	Yes	$1	26.9¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$1	6.4¢	Lost
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?	No	$1	26.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	$5	12.8¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$1	83.0¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Yes	$11	42.2¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	$2	3.6¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	$6	56.9¢	Lost

Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$1 @ 82.0¢
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?Won
Yes$3 @ 36.5¢
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m?Lost
Yes$2 @ 13.0¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 33.0¢
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims)Won
Jim Miller$8 @ 28.7¢
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 0% and 5%?Lost
Yes$1 @ 36.0¢
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$19 @ 55.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 86.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$66 @ 5.1¢
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 18.7¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 58.6¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$3 @ 88.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$5 @ 82.0¢
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?Won
No$7 @ 76.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 54.0¢
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?Lost
No$2 @ 70.5¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$1 @ 47.0¢
Will there be fewer than 2 North Korea tests in May 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 62.0¢
Will there be fewer than 2 North Korea tests in May 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 52.0¢
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Lost
Yes$1 @ 28.0¢
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$9 @ 39.6¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 85.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 17.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$3 @ 52.2¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 48.4¢
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?Lost
Yes$1 @ 12.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Lost
No$2 @ 43.9¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$1 @ 62.3¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$38 @ 0.7¢
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main Card)Won
Juan Diaz$26 @ 32.3¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by less than 5%?Won
Yes$1 @ 85.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 45.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$29 @ 79.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$43 @ 12.7¢
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)Lost
Polyana Viana$25 @ 37.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 8.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$15 @ 26.7¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?Lost
Yes$3 @ 61.8¢
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims)Lost
Clayton Carpenter$1 @ 38.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 85.0¢
Trump out as President by May 31?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.4¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 26.9¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.4¢
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Lost
No$1 @ 26.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 12.8¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
No$1 @ 83.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Won
Yes$11 @ 42.2¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Won
No$2 @ 3.6¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Lost
Yes$6 @ 56.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$14	24.6¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$8	17.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$7	73.1¢
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?	Politics	Yes	$7	64.2¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$6	39.5¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	Yes	$6	16.5¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	No	$6	81.0¢
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3	30.1¢
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?	Politics	Yes	$3	83.8¢
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Politics	No	$3	96.6¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$3	39.2¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	No	$3	62.3¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3	17.8¢
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$3	13.2¢
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Politics	No	$2	97.0¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$2	55.0¢
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$2	87.0¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	—	Yes	$2	27.0¢
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Sports	Yes	$2	38.9¢
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$2	55.2¢
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	38.1¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$2	61.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$2	15.6¢
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1	20.0¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$1	32.0¢
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	32.0¢
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$1	80.0¢
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	49.5¢
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	97.0¢
Will 1 person leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1	95.0¢

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$14 @ 24.6¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
Yes$8 @ 17.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$7 @ 73.1¢
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?Politics
Yes$7 @ 64.2¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?Politics
Yes$6 @ 39.5¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
Yes$6 @ 16.5¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
No$6 @ 81.0¢
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?Politics
Yes$3 @ 30.1¢
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?Politics
Yes$3 @ 83.8¢
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Politics
No$3 @ 96.6¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$3 @ 39.2¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
No$3 @ 62.3¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$3 @ 17.8¢
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Politics
Yes$3 @ 13.2¢
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?Politics
No$2 @ 97.0¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
Yes$2 @ 55.0¢
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?Politics
Yes$2 @ 87.0¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?—
Yes$2 @ 27.0¢
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Sports
Yes$2 @ 38.9¢
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$2 @ 55.2¢
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 38.1¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$2 @ 61.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?Politics
Yes$2 @ 15.6¢
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$1 @ 20.0¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?Politics
Yes$1 @ 32.0¢
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 32.0¢
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?Geopolitics
No$1 @ 80.0¢
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 49.5¢
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 97.0¢
Will 1 person leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1 @ 95.0¢