0xe54f…94f0

Specialization by sphere

• Other93 bets

  Hit rate

  68% (63/93)

  ROI

  +12%

• Politics13 bets

  Hit rate

  77% (10/13)

  ROI

  +18%

• Geopolitics8 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (8/8)

  ROI

  +21%

• Economy5 bets

  Hit rate

  60% (3/5)

  ROI

  +10%

• Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?Won
  No$9 @ 89.5¢
• GPT ads by December 31?Won
  No$9 @ 89.2¢
• Will Donald Trump visit India in 2025?Won
  No$15 @ 77.0¢
• Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Won
  No$15 @ 77.0¢
• Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?Won
  No$451 @ 85.8¢
• Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Won
  No$8 @ 78.0¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
  No$43 @ 85.0¢
• Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?Lost
  No$25 @ 10.0¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Won
  No$799 @ 88.8¢
• Will Cuomo endorse Eric Adams?Won
  No$134 @ 67.2¢
• Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2025?Won
  No$465 @ 88.0¢
• Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?Won
  No$41 @ 82.6¢
• Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?Lost
  Yes$8 @ 4.2¢
• Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
  No$6 @ 5.6¢
• Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?Won
  No$438 @ 87.5¢
• Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?Won
  No$788 @ 87.4¢
• Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
  No$346 @ 86.5¢
• Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31?Lost
  Yes$162 @ 81.0¢
• Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election?Won
  No$600 @ 80.0¢
• Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Lost
  No$126 @ 63.0¢
• Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%?Lost
  Yes$120 @ 48.0¢
• Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31?Lost
  No$213 @ 71.0¢
• Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?Won
  No$13 @ 85.1¢
• Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Won
  No$1.4k @ 81.8¢
• Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025?Lost
  No$17 @ 87.0¢
• Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?Won
  No$26 @ 64.0¢
• Will Khamenei visit Russia by March 31?Won
  No$275 @ 78.4¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?Won
  No$243 @ 81.0¢
• Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by October 31?Won
  Yes$38 @ 75.0¢
• Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?Lost
  Yes$6 @ 11.0¢
• Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
  Yes$1.3k @ 58.2¢
• Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?Won
  No$8 @ 42.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
  No$394 @ 78.7¢
• Will Trump meet with Reza Pahlavi by January 31?Won
  No$111 @ 72.8¢
• Will Zohran Mamdani win Staten Island in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?Won
  No$306 @ 87.4¢
• Will Zohran Mamdani win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?Won
  No$2.4k @ 82.7¢
• Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 2.7¢
• Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
  No$8.7k @ 76.9¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Won
  No$4.1k @ 85.4¢
• Will Trump talk to Narendra Modi in August?Won
  No$8 @ 84.0¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?Won
  No$185 @ 84.0¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Won
  No$370 @ 74.0¢
• Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?Lost
  Yes$30 @ 59.0¢
• Trump pause or remove 100k H-1B policy by October 31?Won
  No$14 @ 72.0¢
• US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?Won
  No$19 @ 74.0¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?Won
  No$215 @ 86.0¢
• Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
  Yes$26 @ 5.2¢
• Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Lost
  No$185 @ 73.8¢
• Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?Won
  No$210 @ 84.0¢
• Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Won
  Yes$317 @ 79.3¢

Current positions

• 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
  No$12.1k @ 89.4¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?Geopolitics
  No$3.9k @ 98.5¢
• Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  No$3.6k @ 59.4¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
  No$2.5k @ 84.1¢
• Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
  Yes$2.0k @ 98.3¢
• Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Politics
  No$1.3k @ 85.3¢
• Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?Politics
  No$1.2k @ 67.5¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?Geopolitics
  Yes$1.1k @ 90.6¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
  Yes$994 @ 82.8¢
• Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
  Yes$937 @ 93.7¢
• Will The Joint List win 6.5-7.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
  No$901 @ 97.8¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$807 @ 80.7¢
• Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
  No$481 @ 96.2¢
• Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
  No$462 @ 92.5¢
• Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$459 @ 61.3¢
• Will Ra'am win exactly 6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
  No$455 @ 91.0¢
• Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$417 @ 83.4¢
• Will The Joint List win 7.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
  Yes$402 @ 97.8¢
• Will Ra'am win exactly 5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
  No$352 @ 98.4¢
• Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
  No$214 @ 42.9¢
• US recession by end of 2026?Economy
  No$91 @ 91.0¢
• Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$71 @ 71.0¢
• Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
  Yes$44 @ 88.0¢
• Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
  Yes$8 @ 15.0¢
• Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
  Yes$8 @ 30.0¢
• Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  Yes$6 @ 0.2¢