0xe54b…aa14

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Other121 bets

  Hit rate

  65% (79/121)

  ROI

  +23%

• Politics31 bets

  Hit rate

  97% (30/31)

  ROI

  +13%

• Geopolitics26 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (26/26)

  ROI

  +10%

• Tech2 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (2/2)

  ROI

  +32%

• Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$167 @ 80.5¢
• France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$115 @ 95.9¢
• Will Houthis target Syria by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$155 @ 96.0¢
• Will Iran target Syria by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$43 @ 94.1¢
• Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?Won
  Yes$47 @ 97.9¢
• Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
  Yes$4.8k @ 93.0¢
• Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
  No$192 @ 92.0¢
• Israel military action against Yemen by October 31?Won
  No$1.4k @ 93.0¢
• Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$47 @ 95.2¢
• Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by October 31?Won
  No$94 @ 90.3¢
• Israel x Syria diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$143 @ 80.5¢
• Trump Admin held in contempt over press ban by October 31?Won
  No$86 @ 95.0¢
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$500 @ 96.2¢
• Clavicular in jail by October 31?Won
  No$216 @ 94.6¢
• Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?Won
  No$4 @ 40.0¢
• Will any country join the Mecca Agreement by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$72 @ 96.0¢
• FlyDubai co-pilot transferred to Israel by Oct. 31?Won
  No$562 @ 91.9¢
• US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
  Yes$1.3k @ 89.6¢
• Will "The Voice of Hind Rajab" win Best Director at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?Lost
  Yes$4 @ 3.3¢
• Will Trump say "Europe" or "European" during the State of the Union address?Won
  Yes$22 @ 89.8¢
• Will France strike Iran by March 31?Won
  No$486 @ 86.0¢
• Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 2.1¢
• Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Won
  No$6.5k @ 88.0¢
• Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Won
  Yes$7.0k @ 68.9¢
• Will Trump say "Trump Family" this week? (December 22 - 28)Won
  No$20 @ 87.1¢
• Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?Won
  Yes$289 @ 72.8¢
• Military action against Iran ends by March 29, 2026?Won
  No$811 @ 85.0¢
• Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30?Won
  No$2.2k @ 87.8¢
• Will "Frankenstein" win Best Editing at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 10.0¢
• Will "A House of Dynamite" win Best Director at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 4.1¢
• Will Trump say "China" or "Russia" 7+ times during CNBC interview?Won
  No$1 @ 82.0¢
• Will Trump say "China" or "Russia" 7+ times during CNBC interview?Lost
  Yes$5 @ 85.4¢
• Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?Won
  No$1.2k @ 47.0¢
• Chinese or Russian athlete kicked out of 2026 Winter Games for doping?Won
  No$318 @ 83.6¢
• Will Michael B. Jordan be nominated for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role at the 2026 SAG Awards?Won
  Yes$87 @ 76.2¢
• Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Won
  Yes$60 @ 27.2¢
• Will an FBI top ten most wanted fugitive be captured by June 2026?Won
  Yes$318 @ 60.4¢
• Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?Won
  No$74 @ 85.9¢
• Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$52 @ 86.0¢
• Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?Won
  No$121 @ 89.7¢
• Will "Sinners" be nominated for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the 32nd Actor Awards?Won
  Yes$84 @ 71.0¢
• Will Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
  Yes$21 @ 87.5¢
• Will Tucker Carlson interview Trump by February 28?Won
  No$1.1k @ 74.8¢
• Trump pays Jan 6 rioter?Won
  No$324 @ 82.5¢
• Will Tucker Carlson say "Foreign Policy" at AmericaFest events on December 18?Won
  Yes$92 @ 82.4¢
• US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
  Yes$1.8k @ 60.8¢
• Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?Won
  Yes$846 @ 82.8¢
• Will Zelenskyy meet with Netanyahu in 2025?Won
  No$888 @ 82.4¢
• Will Zelenskyy meet with Netanyahu in 2025?Lost
  Yes$16 @ 23.0¢
• Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?Won
  Yes$6.1k @ 88.2¢

Current positions

• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$17.4k @ 86.1¢
• Pakistan military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$781 @ 89.4¢
• Syrian troops enter Yemen by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$742 @ 87.2¢
• Will a UK social media ban take effect by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$740 @ 90.5¢
• Anthropic commits shares to Trump Accounts by November 30?Politics
  No$729 @ 95.3¢
• France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?Politics
  No$717 @ 93.9¢
• Will a European country take military action on Iran by December 31?Politics
  No$661 @ 90.5¢
• Will iiTzTimmy win Gamer of the Year at the 2026 Streamer Awards?Culture
  No$580 @ 95.0¢
• Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$549 @ 90.1¢
• Israel military action against Iraq by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$523 @ 86.6¢
• Will Deadlock win Best Multiplayer at the 2026 Game Awards?Culture
  No$517 @ 89.2¢
• Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$514 @ 90.8¢
• Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31?Geopolitics
  No$398 @ 88.3¢
• Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$343 @ 73.5¢
• Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$309 @ 90.9¢
• Will any country join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$260 @ 83.9¢
• Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$258 @ 78.7¢
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$231 @ 91.0¢
• Will Phantom Blade Zero win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?Culture
  No$183 @ 95.1¢
• Will Marathon win Best Multiplayer at the 2026 Game Awards?Culture
  No$181 @ 91.4¢
• Will Iran target Egypt by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$140 @ 91.6¢
• Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?Politics
  No$132 @ 93.7¢
• Turkey military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$92 @ 92.0¢
• Aryeh Deri out as Shas Leader by December 31?Politics
  No$78 @ 78.0¢
• Will any 2027 Oscar award result in a tie?Culture
  No$67 @ 83.5¢
• Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$64 @ 89.8¢
• Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Politics
  No$60 @ 91.9¢
• Will Qatar join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$55 @ 92.0¢
• Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?Politics
  No$14 @ 92.0¢
• Israel military action against Yemen by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$9 @ 88.0¢