0xe393…8364

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xe393b4c4d81ec9f4e32bc27040419da241908364
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.4pp

ROI

+21%

Win rate

60% @ 51.8¢

Brier

0.088

Resolved

530

Avg size

$21

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	43% (3/7)	+3%	7
Tech	60% (3/5)	+26%	5
Other	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Sports	50% (1/2)	-22%	2
Economy	50% (1/2)	+36%	2
Business	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics7 bets
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
ROI
+3%
Tech5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
+26%
Other3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-22%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+36%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

40% hit · 8/20

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	$30	3.3¢	Lost
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$80	80.6¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 23?	Yes	$3	36.0¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	$852	22.1¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	$8.5k	72.2¢	Won
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$443	80.4¢	Won
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	$125	53.0¢	Lost
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	$449	57.4¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$39	50.7¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$34	38.7¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	$59	22.6¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	$44	6.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$147	73.2¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$39	39.6¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$70	19.5¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$5	4.3¢	Lost
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$265	18.9¢	Lost
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$100	75.3¢	Won
SHEIN IPO before 2027?	No	$44	11.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on April 22?	Yes	$6	4.4¢	Lost

Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$30 @ 3.3¢
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$80 @ 80.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 23?Lost
Yes$3 @ 36.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Lost
No$852 @ 22.1¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Won
Yes$8.5k @ 72.2¢
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?Won
Yes$443 @ 80.4¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Lost
No$125 @ 53.0¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Won
Yes$449 @ 57.4¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
No$39 @ 50.7¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$34 @ 38.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Lost
Yes$59 @ 22.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$44 @ 6.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$147 @ 73.2¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Won
No$39 @ 39.6¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$70 @ 19.5¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$5 @ 4.3¢
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$265 @ 18.9¢
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$100 @ 75.3¢
SHEIN IPO before 2027?Lost
No$44 @ 11.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on April 22?Lost
Yes$6 @ 4.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	No	$257	91.3¢
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$229	35.6¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	No	$177	80.6¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	No	$99	88.0¢
Discord IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$72	26.1¢
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$62	2.0¢
Will Digger win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	Yes	$52	5.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$48	20.5¢
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$35	16.3¢
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$33	19.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	No	$32	28.2¢
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	No	$32	99.5¢
Ramp IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$30	8.1¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$21	35.3¢
Will Dune: Part Three win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	Yes	$20	11.5¢
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$20	7.3¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	Politics	No	$19	96.0¢
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?	Tech	No	$14	68.0¢
Will Project Hail Mary win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	Yes	$12	5.6¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	Sports	No	$11	82.0¢
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$10	10.6¢
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	Culture	No	$9	87.7¢
US recession by end of 2026?	Economy	No	$9	87.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$8	16.3¢
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$8	13.1¢
Will Fjord win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	Yes	$8	7.6¢
No one announced as next James Bond?	Culture	No	$7	69.9¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	No	$6	46.0¢
Databricks IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$5	9.8¢
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$5	0.9¢

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
No$257 @ 91.3¢
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?Tech
Yes$229 @ 35.6¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
No$177 @ 80.6¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
No$99 @ 88.0¢
Discord IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$72 @ 26.1¢
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$62 @ 2.0¢
Will Digger win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
Yes$52 @ 5.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$48 @ 20.5¢
OpenAI IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$35 @ 16.3¢
Anthropic IPO before 2027?Business
No$33 @ 19.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
No$32 @ 28.2¢
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
No$32 @ 99.5¢
Ramp IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$30 @ 8.1¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$21 @ 35.3¢
Will Dune: Part Three win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
Yes$20 @ 11.5¢
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?Tech
Yes$20 @ 7.3¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HousePolitics
No$19 @ 96.0¢
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?Tech
No$14 @ 68.0¢
Will Project Hail Mary win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
Yes$12 @ 5.6¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?Sports
No$11 @ 82.0¢
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?Tech
Yes$10 @ 10.6¢
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?Culture
No$9 @ 87.7¢
US recession by end of 2026?Economy
No$9 @ 87.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
Yes$8 @ 16.3¢
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?Tech
Yes$8 @ 13.1¢
Will Fjord win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
Yes$8 @ 7.6¢
No one announced as next James Bond?Culture
No$7 @ 69.9¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
No$6 @ 46.0¢
Databricks IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$5 @ 9.8¢
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$5 @ 0.9¢