0xe151…a852

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xe15140da748ca6f978db95bd9303389aa7c2a852
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.0pp

ROI

+61%

Win rate

26% @ 20.2¢

Brier

0.101

Resolved

495

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	39% (31/80)	-6%	80
Politics	62% (16/26)	+110%	26
Sports	25% (5/20)	+171%	20
Tech	50% (1/2)	-39%	2
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other80 bets
Hit rate
39% (31/80)
ROI
-6%
Politics26 bets
Hit rate
62% (16/26)
ROI
+110%
Sports20 bets
Hit rate
25% (5/20)
ROI
+171%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-39%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

41% hit · 53/129

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Tulsi Gabbard out by March 31?	No	$37	73.4¢	Won
Will Lee Zeldin be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$96	82.9¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	No	$13	67.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$26	13.1¢	Lost
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?	Yes	$4	7.9¢	Lost
Caroline Ellison new boyfriend by January 31?	Yes	$5	2.0¢	Lost
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	$303	29.5¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce Harmeet Dhillon as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	Yes	$3	2.1¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$99	66.0¢	Won
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?	Yes	$224	24.9¢	Lost
Will Russell T. Vought be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce Jeanine Pirro as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	Yes	$8	1.5¢	Lost
Will Scott Turner be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	$1	0.7¢	Lost
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$18	35.4¢	Lost
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?	No	$1	84.0¢	Won
Brown and MIT shooters confirmed to be same person?	Yes	$17	84.0¢	Won
Will Jamieson Greer be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	$2	0.8¢	Lost
Will South Carolina win the 2026 Women's NCAA Tournament?	Yes	$26	13.0¢	Lost
Will Doug Burgum be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	$1	0.8¢	Lost
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	$36	48.7¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?	No	$44	63.0¢	Won
Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	$1	1.1¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	$20	40.0¢	Lost
Will Janeese Lewis George win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?	Yes	$3	58.0¢	Won
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$15	7.2¢	Lost
Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?	No	$10	32.0¢	Won
Will Matt Mahan advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	$11	84.0¢	Won
Will Howard Lutnick be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	$16	82.0¢	Won
Will Howard Lutnick be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	$2	1.1¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$39	65.2¢	Lost
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?	No	$11	57.0¢	Lost
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?	Yes	$116	33.1¢	Won
Will Doug Collins be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	No	$30	59.0¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?	No	$5	87.0¢	Won
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$16	5.3¢	Lost
US government shutdown Saturday?	Yes	$138	63.5¢	Won
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$10	0.8¢	Lost
Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	No	$10	62.0¢	Won
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	$4	14.0¢	Lost
Will Daniel Biss be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?	Yes	$68	68.0¢	Won
Will Tulsi Gabbard be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	$44	87.2¢	Won
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	$10	43.6¢	Lost
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	$15	15.1¢	Lost
Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 10% and 15.00%?	No	$80	80.0¢	Won
Will Kate Abughazaleh be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?	Yes	$13	34.0¢	Lost
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$6	1.1¢	Lost
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$23	86.8¢	Won
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	$84	84.0¢	Won

Tulsi Gabbard out by March 31?Won
No$37 @ 73.4¢
Will Lee Zeldin be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$96 @ 82.9¢
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Won
No$13 @ 67.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$26 @ 13.1¢
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?Lost
Yes$4 @ 7.9¢
Caroline Ellison new boyfriend by January 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.0¢
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
Yes$303 @ 29.5¢
Will Donald Trump announce Harmeet Dhillon as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 2.1¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$99 @ 66.0¢
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?Lost
Yes$224 @ 24.9¢
Will Russell T. Vought be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce Jeanine Pirro as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?Lost
Yes$8 @ 1.5¢
Will Scott Turner be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.7¢
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$18 @ 35.4¢
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 84.0¢
Brown and MIT shooters confirmed to be same person?Won
Yes$17 @ 84.0¢
Will Jamieson Greer be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.8¢
Will South Carolina win the 2026 Women's NCAA Tournament?Lost
Yes$26 @ 13.0¢
Will Doug Burgum be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.8¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$36 @ 48.7¢
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?Won
No$44 @ 63.0¢
Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.1¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Lost
No$20 @ 40.0¢
Will Janeese Lewis George win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?Won
Yes$3 @ 58.0¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$15 @ 7.2¢
Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 32.0¢
Will Matt Mahan advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Won
No$11 @ 84.0¢
Will Howard Lutnick be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Won
No$16 @ 82.0¢
Will Howard Lutnick be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.1¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$39 @ 65.2¢
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?Lost
No$11 @ 57.0¢
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?Won
Yes$116 @ 33.1¢
Will Doug Collins be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Won
No$30 @ 59.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?Won
No$5 @ 87.0¢
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$16 @ 5.3¢
US government shutdown Saturday?Won
Yes$138 @ 63.5¢
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.8¢
Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?Won
No$10 @ 62.0¢
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 14.0¢
Will Daniel Biss be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?Won
Yes$68 @ 68.0¢
Will Tulsi Gabbard be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Won
No$44 @ 87.2¢
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?Lost
No$10 @ 43.6¢
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Lost
No$15 @ 15.1¢
Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 10% and 15.00%?Won
No$80 @ 80.0¢
Will Kate Abughazaleh be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?Lost
Yes$13 @ 34.0¢
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$6 @ 1.1¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$23 @ 86.8¢
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Won
No$84 @ 84.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Science	No	$887	88.7¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?	Culture	No	$553	92.2¢
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	Politics	No	$498	83.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$488	25.7¢
Will Beto O’Rourke announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Politics	No	$371	95.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	No	$251	83.7¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$216	72.0¢
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	No	$185	59.7¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?	Culture	No	$146	73.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$144	77.7¢
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Politics	No	$130	79.0¢
Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	No	$125	54.2¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$84	28.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$83	59.1¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$79	53.0¢
Will Mark Kelly announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Politics	No	$78	78.0¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?	Culture	No	$57	38.3¢
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	No	$50	50.0¢
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	No	$46	45.8¢
Will Bernie Sanders announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Politics	No	$42	93.0¢
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Politics	No	$35	69.1¢
Will "The Adventures of Cliff Booth" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	Yes	$25	25.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$22	40.4¢
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$20	1.0¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$19	2.7¢
Will George Clooney announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Politics	No	$17	88.0¢
Will Péter Magyar be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	Culture	No	$17	85.0¢
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$16	1.6¢
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$14	3.3¢
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$12	1.3¢

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
No$887 @ 88.7¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?Culture
No$553 @ 92.2¢
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Politics
No$498 @ 83.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
Yes$488 @ 25.7¢
Will Beto O’Rourke announce a Presidential run before 2027?Politics
No$371 @ 95.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
No$251 @ 83.7¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$216 @ 72.0¢
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
No$185 @ 59.7¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?Culture
No$146 @ 73.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$144 @ 77.7¢
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?Politics
No$130 @ 79.0¢
Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
No$125 @ 54.2¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$84 @ 28.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$83 @ 59.1¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$79 @ 53.0¢
Will Mark Kelly announce a Presidential run before 2027?Politics
No$78 @ 78.0¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?Culture
No$57 @ 38.3¢
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
No$50 @ 50.0¢
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
No$46 @ 45.8¢
Will Bernie Sanders announce a Presidential run before 2027?Politics
No$42 @ 93.0¢
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?Politics
No$35 @ 69.1¢
Will "The Adventures of Cliff Booth" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
Yes$25 @ 25.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$22 @ 40.4¢
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$20 @ 1.0¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$19 @ 2.7¢
Will George Clooney announce a Presidential run before 2027?Politics
No$17 @ 88.0¢
Will Péter Magyar be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Culture
No$17 @ 85.0¢
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$16 @ 1.6¢
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$14 @ 3.3¢
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$12 @ 1.3¢