0xdc4b…dbca

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xdc4b06981e74fe11585438eb40f10bd79f43dbca
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.5pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

74% @ 70.5¢

Brier

0.156

Resolved

1208

Avg size

$237

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	69% (51/74)	+1%	74
Politics	92% (12/13)	+43%	13
Tech	63% (5/8)	+19%	8
Geopolitics	100% (8/8)	+19%	8

Other74 bets
Hit rate
69% (51/74)
ROI
+1%
Politics13 bets
Hit rate
92% (12/13)
ROI
+43%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
63% (5/8)
ROI
+19%
Geopolitics8 bets
Hit rate
100% (8/8)
ROI
+19%

Track record

74% hit · 76/103

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June?	No	$1.5k	73.6¢	Won
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	$858	72.4¢	Won
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?	Yes	$675	67.5¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	Yes	$6.4k	71.9¢	Won
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?	No	$2.4k	86.0¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$760	69.1¢	Won
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?	No	$1.7k	69.6¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$2.2k	73.7¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	Yes	$10.1k	81.7¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	No	$790	79.0¢	Won
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	No	$4.0k	78.6¢	Won
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?	No	$3.5k	86.5¢	Won
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?	No	$330	77.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?	No	$1.2k	62.0¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June?	No	$714	79.8¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$2.1k	30.6¢	Lost
US strike on Syria by December 14?	Yes	$39	3.9¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	Yes	$182	14.0¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	$3.2k	75.5¢	Won
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	52.4¢	Won
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	62.0¢	Lost
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$8.9k	51.7¢	Won
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?	No	$1.5k	76.0¢	Lost
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7?	No	$217	76.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	No	$2.6k	88.0¢	Won
Maduro out by December 31, 2026?	No	$1.1k	55.0¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June?	No	$1.3k	81.6¢	Won
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?	No	$258	88.6¢	Won
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	$3.2k	77.6¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?	No	$2.2k	63.4¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	$9.3k	84.4¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$901	60.0¢	Won
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$660	66.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$1.6k	78.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?	No	$43	86.0¢	Won
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?	No	$1.7k	86.5¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	No	$1.7k	87.0¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	$2.2k	70.4¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	$1.9k	77.4¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$13.1k	87.3¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$850	17.0¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	No	$4.4k	72.7¢	Won
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?	Yes	$8.1k	52.4¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?	No	$1.7k	83.0¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	$328	82.0¢	Lost
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?	No	$4.0k	87.2¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	No	$1.4k	70.0¢	Lost
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	$566	47.2¢	Lost
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$171	61.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	$9.5k	52.9¢	Lost

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June?Won
No$1.5k @ 73.6¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Won
No$858 @ 72.4¢
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?Won
Yes$675 @ 67.5¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Won
Yes$6.4k @ 71.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?Won
No$2.4k @ 86.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$760 @ 69.1¢
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$1.7k @ 69.6¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$2.2k @ 73.7¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?Won
Yes$10.1k @ 81.7¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Won
No$790 @ 79.0¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Won
No$4.0k @ 78.6¢
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?Won
No$3.5k @ 86.5¢
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?Lost
No$330 @ 77.0¢
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?Won
No$1.2k @ 62.0¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June?Won
No$714 @ 79.8¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$2.1k @ 30.6¢
US strike on Syria by December 14?Lost
Yes$39 @ 3.9¢
US forces enter Iran by March 14?Lost
Yes$182 @ 14.0¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?Won
No$3.2k @ 75.5¢
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 52.4¢
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 62.0¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$8.9k @ 51.7¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?Lost
No$1.5k @ 76.0¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7?Won
No$217 @ 76.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Won
No$2.6k @ 88.0¢
Maduro out by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$1.1k @ 55.0¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June?Won
No$1.3k @ 81.6¢
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?Won
No$258 @ 88.6¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Won
No$3.2k @ 77.6¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?Won
No$2.2k @ 63.4¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$9.3k @ 84.4¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$901 @ 60.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$660 @ 66.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$1.6k @ 78.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?Won
No$43 @ 86.0¢
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?Lost
No$1.7k @ 86.5¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Won
No$1.7k @ 87.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Won
No$2.2k @ 70.4¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?Won
No$1.9k @ 77.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$13.1k @ 87.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$850 @ 17.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Won
No$4.4k @ 72.7¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?Lost
Yes$8.1k @ 52.4¢
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?Won
No$1.7k @ 83.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Lost
No$328 @ 82.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?Won
No$4.0k @ 87.2¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Lost
No$1.4k @ 70.0¢
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Lost
Yes$566 @ 47.2¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$171 @ 61.0¢
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$9.5k @ 52.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$38.8k	97.0¢
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$32.6k	93.3¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$32.0k	91.4¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$9.8k	98.2¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	No	$9.7k	96.7¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$9.3k	93.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.5k	76.1¢
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Crypto	No	$933	64.1¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$852	85.2¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$845	84.5¢

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$38.8k @ 97.0¢
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$32.6k @ 93.3¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
No$32.0k @ 91.4¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?Geopolitics
No$9.8k @ 98.2¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
No$9.7k @ 96.7¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Geopolitics
No$9.3k @ 93.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
No$1.5k @ 76.1¢
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?Crypto
No$933 @ 64.1¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$852 @ 85.2¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$845 @ 84.5¢