0xdafd…5ffb

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xdafd27c48807e5f5a576bd8a3854342c47a65ffb
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+9.0pp

ROI

+5%

Win rate

74% @ 64.9¢

Brier

0.129

Resolved

437

Avg size

$212

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	61% (43/71)	+5%	71
Politics	96% (24/25)	+2%	25
Sports	92% (11/12)	-0%	12
Tech	90% (9/10)	-0%	10
Geopolitics	86% (6/7)	-2%	7
Culture	86% (6/7)	-8%	7
Crypto	100% (2/2)	+2%	2
Business	100% (2/2)	+1%	2

Other71 bets
Hit rate
61% (43/71)
ROI
+5%
Politics25 bets
Hit rate
96% (24/25)
ROI
+2%
Sports12 bets
Hit rate
92% (11/12)
ROI
-0%
Tech10 bets
Hit rate
90% (9/10)
ROI
-0%
Geopolitics7 bets
Hit rate
86% (6/7)
ROI
-2%
Culture7 bets
Hit rate
86% (6/7)
ROI
-8%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+2%
Business2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+1%

Track record

76% hit · 103/136

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	Yes	$570	91.0¢	Won
Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	Yes	$4.7k	99.7¢	Won
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025	Yes	$5.4k	85.7¢	Won
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	No	$12	4.0¢	Won
0x07c081e1…	Iga Swiatek	$1.1k	56.0¢	Lost
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?	No	$612	80.0¢	Won
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$333	13.8¢	Lost
US government shutdown by October 1?	Yes	$440	77.0¢	Won
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$1.0k	85.0¢	Won
Hawks vs. Pelicans	Hawks	$480	80.0¢	Won
Cavaliers vs. Raptors	Raptors	$2.0k	51.0¢	Won
0x1f398f7a…	Matias Soto	$1.1k	57.0¢	Lost
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	$9	85.0¢	Won
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$141	7.7¢	Lost
Pacers vs. Suns	Suns	$168	84.0¢	Won
Bulls vs. Pistons	Pistons	$103	66.1¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$9	3.0¢	Lost
Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 150m and 163m?	Yes	$79	17.4¢	Lost
Hawks vs. Wizards	Wizards	$3.5k	65.8¢	Won
Over 20M humans verified on World Network by December 31?	Yes	$6	30.0¢	Lost
Rockets vs. Warriors	Rockets	$3.6k	58.9¢	Won
Rockets vs. Warriors	Warriors	$4.0k	85.0¢	Lost
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?	Yes	$4.0k	85.7¢	Won
0x3f62d4cb…	Joao Lucas Da Silva	$1.9k	65.0¢	Won
US government shutdown Saturday?	No	$670	78.4¢	Lost
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?	Yes	$818	81.3¢	Lost
Hurricanes vs. Flyers	Hurricanes	$2.1k	53.0¢	Lost
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	$5.1k	80.9¢	Won
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?	Yes	$275	84.0¢	Won
0x56f1060e…	Ben Shelton	$980	49.0¢	Won
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	$536	67.0¢	Lost
Will 'Clair Obscur: Expedition 33' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards?	Yes	$22	67.0¢	Lost
0x620f2c52…	Lakers	$3.2k	79.0¢	Won
0x620f2c52…	Rockets	$1.1k	45.0¢	Lost
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$952	76.1¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?	Yes	$16	70.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk unfollow Grimes by January 31?	No	$194	89.0¢	Won
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$353	29.3¢	Lost
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	$9	88.0¢	Won
Pacers vs. Pistons	Pistons	$25	83.0¢	Won
0x7fbf5ce2…	Ducks	$3.0k	53.0¢	Won
Chiefs vs. Cowboys	Cowboys	$310	48.0¢	Won
Will Pope Leo XIV rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	Yes	$1.0k	87.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?	Yes	$28	65.0¢	Lost
Hawks vs. Jazz	Hawks	$1.1k	80.6¢	Won
Magic vs. Knicks	Magic	$115	83.0¢	Won
Will Liam rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?	Yes	$253	78.0¢	Won
Will there be another US government shutdown by December 31?	Yes	$2	2.1¢	Lost
0xb07d3ae3…	Li Tu	$2.1k	54.7¢	Won
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Yes	$880	44.0¢	Lost

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?Won
Yes$570 @ 91.0¢
Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?Won
Yes$4.7k @ 99.7¢
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025Won
Yes$5.4k @ 85.7¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Won
No$12 @ 4.0¢
0x07c081e1…Lost
Iga Swiatek$1.1k @ 56.0¢
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?Won
No$612 @ 80.0¢
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?Lost
Yes$333 @ 13.8¢
US government shutdown by October 1?Won
Yes$440 @ 77.0¢
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 85.0¢
Hawks vs. PelicansWon
Hawks$480 @ 80.0¢
Cavaliers vs. RaptorsWon
Raptors$2.0k @ 51.0¢
0x1f398f7a…Lost
Matias Soto$1.1k @ 57.0¢
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Won
Yes$9 @ 85.0¢
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?Lost
Yes$141 @ 7.7¢
Pacers vs. SunsWon
Suns$168 @ 84.0¢
Bulls vs. PistonsWon
Pistons$103 @ 66.1¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$9 @ 3.0¢
Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 150m and 163m?Lost
Yes$79 @ 17.4¢
Hawks vs. WizardsWon
Wizards$3.5k @ 65.8¢
Over 20M humans verified on World Network by December 31?Lost
Yes$6 @ 30.0¢
Rockets vs. WarriorsWon
Rockets$3.6k @ 58.9¢
Rockets vs. WarriorsLost
Warriors$4.0k @ 85.0¢
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?Won
Yes$4.0k @ 85.7¢
0x3f62d4cb…Won
Joao Lucas Da Silva$1.9k @ 65.0¢
US government shutdown Saturday?Lost
No$670 @ 78.4¢
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?Lost
Yes$818 @ 81.3¢
Hurricanes vs. FlyersLost
Hurricanes$2.1k @ 53.0¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?Won
Yes$5.1k @ 80.9¢
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?Won
Yes$275 @ 84.0¢
0x56f1060e…Won
Ben Shelton$980 @ 49.0¢
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$536 @ 67.0¢
Will 'Clair Obscur: Expedition 33' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards?Lost
Yes$22 @ 67.0¢
0x620f2c52…Won
Lakers$3.2k @ 79.0¢
0x620f2c52…Lost
Rockets$1.1k @ 45.0¢
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
Yes$952 @ 76.1¢
Will Google have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?Lost
Yes$16 @ 70.0¢
Will Elon Musk unfollow Grimes by January 31?Won
No$194 @ 89.0¢
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?Lost
Yes$353 @ 29.3¢
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Won
Yes$9 @ 88.0¢
Pacers vs. PistonsWon
Pistons$25 @ 83.0¢
0x7fbf5ce2…Won
Ducks$3.0k @ 53.0¢
Chiefs vs. CowboysWon
Cowboys$310 @ 48.0¢
Will Pope Leo XIV rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 87.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?Lost
Yes$28 @ 65.0¢
Hawks vs. JazzWon
Hawks$1.1k @ 80.6¢
Magic vs. KnicksWon
Magic$115 @ 83.0¢
Will Liam rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?Won
Yes$253 @ 78.0¢
Will there be another US government shutdown by December 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.1¢
0xb07d3ae3…Won
Li Tu$2.1k @ 54.7¢
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Lost
Yes$880 @ 44.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	Culture	No	$8.3k	95.0¢
US recession by end of 2026?	Economy	No	$6.0k	91.3¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	No	$5.6k	94.8¢
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Crypto	No	$5.2k	93.8¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	No	$5.1k	87.5¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$5.1k	94.9¢
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$4.9k	93.6¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Culture	Yes	$3.2k	95.0¢
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Culture	No	$3.2k	98.6¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$3.1k	88.2¢
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Politics	Yes	$3.0k	95.9¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	No	$2.5k	94.3¢
New pandemic in 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$2.2k	95.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Tech	No	$2.1k	92.9¢
JD Vance out as VP by December 31?	Politics	No	$2.0k	93.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$2.0k	99.7¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$2.0k	99.7¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$2.0k	87.0¢
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.9k	93.3¢
GTA VI released by October 31?	Culture	No	$1.8k	95.2¢
GTA VI released by November 30?	Culture	Yes	$1.8k	93.0¢
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$1.4k	93.4¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Culture	No	$1.2k	89.3¢
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.1k	95.0¢
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$1.1k	91.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.0k	88.0¢
Anthropic lab leak by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$652	96.6¢
Databricks IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$555	93.3¢
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?	Politics	No	$510	94.7¢
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Politics	Yes	$503	75.0¢

New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? Culture
No$8.3k @ 95.0¢
US recession by end of 2026?Economy
No$6.0k @ 91.3¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
No$5.6k @ 94.8¢
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?Crypto
No$5.2k @ 93.8¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
No$5.1k @ 87.5¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$5.1k @ 94.9¢
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$4.9k @ 93.6¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Culture
Yes$3.2k @ 95.0¢
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?Culture
No$3.2k @ 98.6¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$3.1k @ 88.2¢
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Politics
Yes$3.0k @ 95.9¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
No$2.5k @ 94.3¢
New pandemic in 2026?Geopolitics
No$2.2k @ 95.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
No$2.1k @ 92.9¢
JD Vance out as VP by December 31?Politics
No$2.0k @ 93.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
No$2.0k @ 99.7¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
No$2.0k @ 99.7¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
No$2.0k @ 87.0¢
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.9k @ 93.3¢
GTA VI released by October 31?Culture
No$1.8k @ 95.2¢
GTA VI released by November 30?Culture
Yes$1.8k @ 93.0¢
China x Japan military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$1.4k @ 93.4¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?Culture
No$1.2k @ 89.3¢
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.1k @ 95.0¢
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$1.1k @ 91.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$1.0k @ 88.0¢
Anthropic lab leak by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$652 @ 96.6¢
Databricks IPO before 2027?Business
No$555 @ 93.3¢
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?Politics
No$510 @ 94.7¢
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Politics
Yes$503 @ 75.0¢