0xda91…9ffd

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xda9126becc96be3598ddd05c4fc06f4093759ffd
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.2pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

52% @ 44.8¢

Brier

0.209

Resolved

3321

Avg size

$43

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	40% (30/75)	+10%	75
Other	59% (26/44)	+2%	44
Geopolitics	47% (8/17)	-6%	17
Tech	33% (3/9)	-4%	9
Economy	67% (4/6)	+26%	6
Sports	33% (1/3)	-2%	3

Politics75 bets
Hit rate
40% (30/75)
ROI
+10%
Other44 bets
Hit rate
59% (26/44)
ROI
+2%
Geopolitics17 bets
Hit rate
47% (8/17)
ROI
-6%
Tech9 bets
Hit rate
33% (3/9)
ROI
-4%
Economy6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
+26%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-2%

Track record

47% hit · 72/154

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$5.6k	59.4¢	Won
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	$13	12.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$1.3k	45.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$81	80.5¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$573	33.8¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$1.1k	43.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Yes	$437	64.2¢	Lost
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	$121	61.0¢	Won
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?	Yes	$10	3.8¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$6	63.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$29	29.0¢	Lost
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$3	3.0¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?	No	$25	6.9¢	Lost
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	$5.2k	48.4¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	Yes	$2	3.7¢	Lost
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?	No	$9	62.1¢	Lost
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$79	32.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$25	5.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.8k	63.8¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	No	$2.0k	79.2¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	Yes	$730	15.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$603	65.2¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	$865	53.4¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?	No	$113	7.3¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1	0.8¢	Lost
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$5.7k	69.1¢	Won
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$128	14.9¢	Lost
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	$3	63.0¢	Won
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$701	36.9¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	Yes	$2.0k	65.5¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	No	$1.1k	26.5¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$680	71.1¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$849	80.2¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$144	48.0¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?	No	$442	14.6¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$363	76.7¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$151	63.0¢	Lost
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?	Yes	$2.2k	26.6¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	$647	66.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$1.6k	55.3¢	Lost
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$22	10.8¢	Lost
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	No	$523	66.0¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$68	60.0¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	Yes	$329	36.9¢	Lost
DeepSeek V4 released by May 15?	Yes	$261	87.0¢	Won
Starmer out by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$17	3.7¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	No	$59	13.1¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	Yes	$17	15.0¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	Yes	$66	24.9¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$4.9k	58.6¢	Lost

Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$5.6k @ 59.4¢
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Lost
Yes$13 @ 12.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1.3k @ 45.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$81 @ 80.5¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$573 @ 33.8¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$1.1k @ 43.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Lost
Yes$437 @ 64.2¢
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Won
No$121 @ 61.0¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 3.8¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$6 @ 63.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$29 @ 29.0¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.0¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?Lost
No$25 @ 6.9¢
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Lost
No$5.2k @ 48.4¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.7¢
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?Lost
No$9 @ 62.1¢
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?Won
Yes$79 @ 32.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$25 @ 5.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.8k @ 63.8¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Won
No$2.0k @ 79.2¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Lost
Yes$730 @ 15.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$603 @ 65.2¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Lost
Yes$865 @ 53.4¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?Lost
No$113 @ 7.3¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.8¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$5.7k @ 69.1¢
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$128 @ 14.9¢
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Won
No$3 @ 63.0¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$701 @ 36.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 65.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?Lost
No$1.1k @ 26.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
Yes$680 @ 71.1¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Won
No$849 @ 80.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$144 @ 48.0¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?Lost
No$442 @ 14.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$363 @ 76.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$151 @ 63.0¢
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?Lost
Yes$2.2k @ 26.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Won
No$647 @ 66.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.6k @ 55.3¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$22 @ 10.8¢
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Won
No$523 @ 66.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$68 @ 60.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Lost
Yes$329 @ 36.9¢
DeepSeek V4 released by May 15?Won
Yes$261 @ 87.0¢
Starmer out by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$17 @ 3.7¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?Won
No$59 @ 13.1¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?Lost
Yes$17 @ 15.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Lost
Yes$66 @ 24.9¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$4.9k @ 58.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$2.7k	57.3¢
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Tech	No	$2.0k	42.4¢
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$301	69.8¢
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$285	76.7¢
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$134	55.6¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Tech	Yes	$131	20.8¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$126	29.3¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$115	50.7¢
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$110	22.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$93	31.0¢
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?	Tech	Yes	$70	28.5¢
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$61	60.0¢
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$43	11.2¢
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?	Tech	No	$4	80.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$2	50.0¢
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.8¢
Will Candace Owens win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.8¢
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.8¢
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.8¢
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.8¢
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.8¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.8¢
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.8¢
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.8¢
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.8¢
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.8¢
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.8¢
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.8¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.8¢
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.8¢

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$2.7k @ 57.3¢
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Tech
No$2.0k @ 42.4¢
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$301 @ 69.8¢
OpenAI IPO before 2027?Business
No$285 @ 76.7¢
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$134 @ 55.6¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
Yes$131 @ 20.8¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$126 @ 29.3¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$115 @ 50.7¢
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$110 @ 22.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$93 @ 31.0¢
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?Tech
Yes$70 @ 28.5¢
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$61 @ 60.0¢
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$43 @ 11.2¢
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?Tech
No$4 @ 80.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$2 @ 50.0¢
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢
Will Candace Owens win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢