0xd85d…3700

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd85da6e47410324e32cc12fcc86e5e44a2c63700
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

-7.9pp

ROI

+3%

Win rate

38% @ 46.4¢

Brier

0.182

Resolved

208

Avg size

$10

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	61% (25/41)	+38%	41
Politics	8% (1/12)	-89%	12
Geopolitics	60% (6/10)	+9%	10
Sports	100% (1/1)	+144%	1

Other41 bets
Hit rate
61% (25/41)
ROI
+38%
Politics12 bets
Hit rate
8% (1/12)
ROI
-89%
Geopolitics10 bets
Hit rate
60% (6/10)
ROI
+9%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+144%

Track record

52% hit · 33/64

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 10?	No	$33	73.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 9?	No	$13	65.0¢	Won
Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?	Yes	$23	31.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on August 1?	Yes	$0	11.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$31	80.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$3	32.0¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?	Yes	$7	37.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 10?	No	$13	66.0¢	Won
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	No	$62	83.1¢	Won
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 AL Central title?	Yes	$8	41.0¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$33	86.1¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	Yes	$8	42.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 10?	No	$16	61.0¢	Won
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	$2	8.4¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?	No	$32	54.8¢	Won
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?	Yes	$4	35.1¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$13	57.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 10?	No	$13	66.0¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$4	81.0¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$177	58.3¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$8	34.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$348	41.2¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 10?	Yes	$8	38.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	$125	32.9¢	Lost
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$13	86.3¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$348	86.3¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	$6	15.0¢	Lost
Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31?	Yes	$6	28.2¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$44	83.8¢	Won
Will GE Vernova (GEV) Q2 orders be above $20B?	Yes	$13	64.0¢	Won
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	Yes	$1	2.3¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	No	$72	89.6¢	Won
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?	Yes	$8	36.7¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	Yes	$12	49.9¢	Won
Will Sian Astley win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?	Yes	$1	6.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$6	20.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 10?	Yes	$8	31.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 10?	Yes	$38	35.0¢	Won
Will British or Norwegian Airways swap logos on Instagram?	Yes	$11	53.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 10?	No	$2	58.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	Yes	$207	42.3¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	$38	22.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on July 11?	No	$17	67.0¢	Won
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	No	$88	87.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 9?	No	$8	57.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	Yes	$2	22.0¢	Lost
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?	Yes	$5	45.7¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	No	$19	61.9¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	Yes	$6	29.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$52	39.7¢	Lost

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 10?Won
No$33 @ 73.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 9?Won
No$13 @ 65.0¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?Lost
Yes$23 @ 31.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on August 1?Lost
Yes$0 @ 11.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$31 @ 80.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$3 @ 32.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?Lost
Yes$7 @ 37.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 10?Won
No$13 @ 66.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Won
No$62 @ 83.1¢
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 AL Central title?Won
Yes$8 @ 41.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$33 @ 86.1¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Lost
Yes$8 @ 42.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 10?Won
No$16 @ 61.0¢
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 8.4¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?Won
No$32 @ 54.8¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?Lost
Yes$4 @ 35.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$13 @ 57.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 10?Lost
No$13 @ 66.0¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
No$4 @ 81.0¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$177 @ 58.3¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$8 @ 34.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$348 @ 41.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 10?Won
Yes$8 @ 38.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$125 @ 32.9¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$13 @ 86.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$348 @ 86.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
Yes$6 @ 15.0¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31?Lost
Yes$6 @ 28.2¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$44 @ 83.8¢
Will GE Vernova (GEV) Q2 orders be above $20B?Won
Yes$13 @ 64.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.3¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?Won
No$72 @ 89.6¢
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?Lost
Yes$8 @ 36.7¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Won
Yes$12 @ 49.9¢
Will Sian Astley win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 20.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 10?Lost
Yes$8 @ 31.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 10?Won
Yes$38 @ 35.0¢
Will British or Norwegian Airways swap logos on Instagram?Won
Yes$11 @ 53.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 10?Won
No$2 @ 58.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$207 @ 42.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Lost
Yes$38 @ 22.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on July 11?Won
No$17 @ 67.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Won
No$88 @ 87.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 9?Won
No$8 @ 57.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 22.0¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?Won
Yes$5 @ 45.7¢
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Won
No$19 @ 61.9¢
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Lost
Yes$6 @ 29.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$52 @ 39.7¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.1k	94.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$820	81.7¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$397	94.6¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Politics	No	$151	88.6¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$73	81.3¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Politics	Yes	$68	76.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$64	47.1¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$47	32.2¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Politics	No	$37	93.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$34	93.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$26	22.2¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$26	56.4¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$25	84.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$21	49.8¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$20	88.9¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$18	44.9¢
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$15	93.0¢
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$15	89.4¢
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	Politics	No	$12	96.1¢
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$12	94.0¢
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10	35.5¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Politics	No	$10	86.5¢
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?	Politics	No	$9	91.0¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$9	70.4¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Politics	No	$8	89.9¢
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$8	94.0¢
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$7	24.2¢
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$7	35.3¢
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5	29.8¢
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?	Politics	No	$4	89.0¢

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$1.1k @ 94.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$820 @ 81.7¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
No$397 @ 94.6¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
No$151 @ 88.6¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$73 @ 81.3¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Politics
Yes$68 @ 76.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$64 @ 47.1¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$47 @ 32.2¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?Politics
No$37 @ 93.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$34 @ 93.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
Yes$26 @ 22.2¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
Yes$26 @ 56.4¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$25 @ 84.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Geopolitics
No$21 @ 49.8¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$20 @ 88.9¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$18 @ 44.9¢
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?Geopolitics
No$15 @ 93.0¢
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$15 @ 89.4¢
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?Politics
No$12 @ 96.1¢
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?Geopolitics
No$12 @ 94.0¢
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
Yes$10 @ 35.5¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Politics
No$10 @ 86.5¢
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?Politics
No$9 @ 91.0¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?Politics
Yes$9 @ 70.4¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Politics
No$8 @ 89.9¢
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?Geopolitics
No$8 @ 94.0¢
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
Yes$7 @ 24.2¢
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
Yes$7 @ 35.3¢
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
Yes$5 @ 29.8¢
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?Politics
No$4 @ 89.0¢