0xd5b9…e44e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd5b97d08ec6098407bfbf66c2786ccc9967fe44e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.3pp

ROI

+24%

Win rate

50% @ 41.9¢

Brier

0.190

Resolved

3878

Avg size

$84

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	53% (391/744)	+30%	744
Politics	58% (50/86)	+6%	86
Tech	64% (32/50)	+28%	50
Sports	44% (11/25)	-56%	25
Geopolitics	70% (7/10)	+43%	10
Economy	50% (2/4)	+50%	4
Crypto	67% (2/3)	+129%	3
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other744 bets
Hit rate
53% (391/744)
ROI
+30%
Politics86 bets
Hit rate
58% (50/86)
ROI
+6%
Tech50 bets
Hit rate
64% (32/50)
ROI
+28%
Sports25 bets
Hit rate
44% (11/25)
ROI
-56%
Geopolitics10 bets
Hit rate
70% (7/10)
ROI
+43%
Economy4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+50%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+129%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

54% hit · 495/923

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?	No	$19	50.0¢	Won
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition	Yes	$70	36.9¢	Lost
Will the Australian hero donation campaign raise between $2.75 million and $3.0 million by December 16?	Yes	$24	6.0¢	Lost
GPT ads by December 31?	No	$100	88.8¢	Won
Will Trump say "Boat" or "Terrorist" during Cabinet Meeting on December 2?	No	$6	5.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Boat" or "Terrorist" during Cabinet Meeting on December 2?	Yes	$2	65.0¢	Won
Will the Australian hero donation campaign reach $1.7 million by Dec 15?	No	$91	2.3¢	Lost
Will the Australian hero donation campaign reach $1.7 million by Dec 15?	Yes	$62	83.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk go on Joe Rogan before June 30?	Yes	$11	22.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Rwanda" or "Congo" 12+ times during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?	Yes	$239	59.9¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$33	56.0¢	Won
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	Yes	$123	41.0¢	Won
TikTok sale announced by March 31?	Yes	$123	82.0¢	Won
Clavicular unbanned from Kick by January 31?	No	$115	23.0¢	Lost
Will "Democracy" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	No	$0	25.0¢	Lost
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?	No	$140	28.0¢	Lost
Will GenesisCupChampion win the Genesis Cup?	Yes	$165	32.6¢	Won
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	$3.2k	57.4¢	Won
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?	No	$309	47.0¢	Won
Will Apple release AirTag 2 by June 30?	No	$56	3.7¢	Lost
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 9?	Yes	$40	40.0¢	Lost
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by November 30?	Yes	$53	6.3¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	Yes	$487	59.0¢	Lost
Will Theravance Biopharma (TBPH) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$158	54.7¢	Won
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?	Yes	$600	18.5¢	Lost
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	Yes	$200	60.0¢	Lost
Will Shayne say "Election" 3+ times during 60 Minutes?	Yes	$411	42.2¢	Won
Will Trump say "Hanukkah" while addressing the nation on December 17?	No	$77	30.6¢	Won
Will Netanyahu be pardoned in 2025?	No	$65	86.7¢	Won
Will Bryan Johnson say "Goth Girl" while tripping balls?	No	$13	66.0¢	Won
Will StoneX Group (SNEX) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$148	14.3¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	$134	89.0¢	Won
Will Jensen Huang say "Ray Traced" or "Ray Tracing" during NVIDIA keynote?	No	$39	13.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Gaza" during the 2026 State of the Union address?	Yes	$72	72.0¢	Won
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?	Yes	$540	67.5¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$123	61.5¢	Won
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 15?	Yes	$76	5.2¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$123	41.8¢	Lost
S&P 500 all time high by December 31?	Yes	$105	35.0¢	Won
Will Sydney Sweeney rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2025?	Yes	$312	74.6¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?	No	$686	69.8¢	Won
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?	Yes	$1.9k	57.3¢	Won
Will Donald Trump say "Hamas" or "Hezbollah" during Israel President events on December 29?	Yes	$232	77.3¢	Won
Will sports prediction markets be banned in any U.S. state in 2025?	Yes	$21	16.0¢	Lost
ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?	No	$32	55.6¢	Won
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?	No	$268	26.3¢	Lost
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?	Yes	$1.5k	52.5¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	No	$327	54.5¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	$421	52.6¢	Lost
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?	No	$115	23.0¢	Lost

Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?Won
No$19 @ 50.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel EditionLost
Yes$70 @ 36.9¢
Will the Australian hero donation campaign raise between $2.75 million and $3.0 million by December 16?Lost
Yes$24 @ 6.0¢
GPT ads by December 31?Won
No$100 @ 88.8¢
Will Trump say "Boat" or "Terrorist" during Cabinet Meeting on December 2?Lost
No$6 @ 5.9¢
Will Trump say "Boat" or "Terrorist" during Cabinet Meeting on December 2?Won
Yes$2 @ 65.0¢
Will the Australian hero donation campaign reach $1.7 million by Dec 15?Lost
No$91 @ 2.3¢
Will the Australian hero donation campaign reach $1.7 million by Dec 15?Won
Yes$62 @ 83.0¢
Will Elon Musk go on Joe Rogan before June 30?Lost
Yes$11 @ 22.0¢
Will Trump say "Rwanda" or "Congo" 12+ times during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?Lost
Yes$239 @ 59.9¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$33 @ 56.0¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Won
Yes$123 @ 41.0¢
TikTok sale announced by March 31?Won
Yes$123 @ 82.0¢
Clavicular unbanned from Kick by January 31?Lost
No$115 @ 23.0¢
Will "Democracy" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Lost
No$0 @ 25.0¢
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?Lost
No$140 @ 28.0¢
Will GenesisCupChampion win the Genesis Cup?Won
Yes$165 @ 32.6¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Won
Yes$3.2k @ 57.4¢
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?Won
No$309 @ 47.0¢
Will Apple release AirTag 2 by June 30?Lost
No$56 @ 3.7¢
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 9?Lost
Yes$40 @ 40.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by November 30?Lost
Yes$53 @ 6.3¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Lost
Yes$487 @ 59.0¢
Will Theravance Biopharma (TBPH) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$158 @ 54.7¢
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?Lost
Yes$600 @ 18.5¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Lost
Yes$200 @ 60.0¢
Will Shayne say "Election" 3+ times during 60 Minutes?Won
Yes$411 @ 42.2¢
Will Trump say "Hanukkah" while addressing the nation on December 17?Won
No$77 @ 30.6¢
Will Netanyahu be pardoned in 2025?Won
No$65 @ 86.7¢
Will Bryan Johnson say "Goth Girl" while tripping balls?Won
No$13 @ 66.0¢
Will StoneX Group (SNEX) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$148 @ 14.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?Won
No$134 @ 89.0¢
Will Jensen Huang say "Ray Traced" or "Ray Tracing" during NVIDIA keynote?Won
No$39 @ 13.0¢
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Gaza" during the 2026 State of the Union address?Won
Yes$72 @ 72.0¢
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?Won
Yes$540 @ 67.5¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
Yes$123 @ 61.5¢
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 15?Lost
Yes$76 @ 5.2¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$123 @ 41.8¢
S&P 500 all time high by December 31?Won
Yes$105 @ 35.0¢
Will Sydney Sweeney rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2025?Lost
Yes$312 @ 74.6¢
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?Won
No$686 @ 69.8¢
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?Won
Yes$1.9k @ 57.3¢
Will Donald Trump say "Hamas" or "Hezbollah" during Israel President events on December 29?Won
Yes$232 @ 77.3¢
Will sports prediction markets be banned in any U.S. state in 2025?Lost
Yes$21 @ 16.0¢
ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?Won
No$32 @ 55.6¢
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?Lost
No$268 @ 26.3¢
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 52.5¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Won
No$327 @ 54.5¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$421 @ 52.6¢
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?Lost
No$115 @ 23.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$6.5k	50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$6.5k	50.0¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$4.8k	23.9¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$4.4k	88.0¢
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Crypto	Yes	$3.8k	62.2¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$2.9k	58.4¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$2.8k	81.8¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$2.7k	55.3¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$2.7k	70.3¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Business	Yes	$2.5k	69.1¢
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$1.6k	84.2¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?	Tech	Yes	$1.3k	15.9¢
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$1.3k	26.4¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.3k	26.8¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Tech	Yes	$1.2k	68.0¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$1.1k	43.8¢
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.0k	49.7¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$990	66.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	Yes	$957	26.6¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$858	71.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$826	65.0¢
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?	Politics	No	$754	65.6¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$734	26.8¢
Will Obsession rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026?	Tech	Yes	$730	88.0¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	No	$700	35.0¢
Will Congress override any veto in 2026?	Politics	No	$682	78.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$660	39.5¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?	Economy	Yes	$629	28.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$618	25.7¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$598	59.6¢

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$6.5k @ 50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$6.5k @ 50.0¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Tech
Yes$4.8k @ 23.9¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$4.4k @ 88.0¢
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?Crypto
Yes$3.8k @ 62.2¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$2.9k @ 58.4¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$2.8k @ 81.8¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$2.7k @ 55.3¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Tech
No$2.7k @ 70.3¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Business
Yes$2.5k @ 69.1¢
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$1.6k @ 84.2¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?Tech
Yes$1.3k @ 15.9¢
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Tech
Yes$1.3k @ 26.4¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$1.3k @ 26.8¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Tech
Yes$1.2k @ 68.0¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?Tech
Yes$1.1k @ 43.8¢
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?Politics
No$1.0k @ 49.7¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$990 @ 66.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
Yes$957 @ 26.6¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$858 @ 71.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$826 @ 65.0¢
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?Politics
No$754 @ 65.6¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?Politics
Yes$734 @ 26.8¢
Will Obsession rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026?Tech
Yes$730 @ 88.0¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
No$700 @ 35.0¢
Will Congress override any veto in 2026?Politics
No$682 @ 78.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Politics
Yes$660 @ 39.5¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?Economy
Yes$629 @ 28.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
Yes$618 @ 25.7¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$598 @ 59.6¢