0xd5b9…e44e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd5b97d08ec6098407bfbf66c2786ccc9967fe44e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.1pp

ROI

+24%

Win rate

50% @ 42.3¢

Brier

0.192

Resolved

3880

Avg size

$90

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	52% (393/749)	+30%	749
Politics	55% (84/152)	+4%	152
Tech	59% (42/71)	+33%	71
Sports	43% (13/30)	-55%	30
Geopolitics	53% (8/15)	+36%	15
Business	25% (3/12)	-27%	12
Economy	67% (4/6)	+108%	6
Culture	83% (5/6)	+38%	6
Crypto	67% (2/3)	+129%	3
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other749 bets
Hit rate
52% (393/749)
ROI
+30%
Politics152 bets
Hit rate
55% (84/152)
ROI
+4%
Tech71 bets
Hit rate
59% (42/71)
ROI
+33%
Sports30 bets
Hit rate
43% (13/30)
ROI
-55%
Geopolitics15 bets
Hit rate
53% (8/15)
ROI
+36%
Business12 bets
Hit rate
25% (3/12)
ROI
-27%
Economy6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
+108%
Culture6 bets
Hit rate
83% (5/6)
ROI
+38%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+129%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

53% hit · 554/1045

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	$957	26.6¢	Lost
Will Young Kim win the CA-40 House seat?	No	$200	54.3¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Yes	$304	21.7¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	$25	55.0¢	Won
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	$5	41.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	$40	48.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	$330	22.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	$1.0k	52.1¢	Lost
Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?	No	$335	53.0¢	Lost
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?	Yes	$604	32.8¢	Lost
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	$17	20.0¢	Lost
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$700	35.0¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-13 House seat?	Yes	$704	27.7¢	Lost
Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?	Yes	$200	44.0¢	Won
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	$2.3k	70.4¢	Won
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	$4.4k	88.0¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	$2.8k	81.8¢	Won
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	$390	39.0¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	$1.3k	64.0¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	$195	65.0¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$100	36.0¢	Lost
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$210	70.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$600	44.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	$500	38.0¢	Lost
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$488	61.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	$561	81.0¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	$500	60.0¢	Won
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	$543	91.0¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat?	Yes	$122	44.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	$136	34.0¢	Lost
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	No	$48	24.0¢	Won
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?	Yes	$376	48.5¢	Lost
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	Yes	$296	50.0¢	Lost
Will Trump issue an AI Safety Executive Order by October 31?	Yes	$28	7.1¢	Lost
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$165	59.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	$826	65.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.5k	69.1¢	Lost
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$26	7.0¢	Lost
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	Yes	$93	31.0¢	Lost
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	$300	20.0¢	Lost
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	$70	97.0¢	Won
Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	$193	62.0¢	Won
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	No	$3	19.0¢	Lost
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?	No	$390	65.0¢	Lost
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$72	12.0¢	Lost
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	$598	59.6¢	Lost
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$260	65.5¢	Won
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$62	41.1¢	Lost
Will OpenRouter process at least 725T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25?	No	$379	66.3¢	Won
Will OpenRouter process less than 575T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25?	Yes	$65	10.9¢	Lost

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Lost
Yes$957 @ 26.6¢
Will Young Kim win the CA-40 House seat?Won
No$200 @ 54.3¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Lost
Yes$304 @ 21.7¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 6:35PM-6:40PM ETWon
Down$25 @ 55.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ETLost
Down$5 @ 41.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ETLost
Down$40 @ 48.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Lost
No$330 @ 22.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Lost
No$1.0k @ 52.1¢
Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?Lost
No$335 @ 53.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?Lost
Yes$604 @ 32.8¢
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?Lost
No$17 @ 20.0¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$700 @ 35.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-13 House seat?Lost
Yes$704 @ 27.7¢
Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?Won
Yes$200 @ 44.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseWon
Yes$2.3k @ 70.4¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseWon
No$4.4k @ 88.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
Yes$2.8k @ 81.8¢
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Won
Yes$390 @ 39.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 64.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Won
No$195 @ 65.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Lost
Yes$100 @ 36.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$210 @ 70.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$600 @ 44.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Lost
No$500 @ 38.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$488 @ 61.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Won
Yes$561 @ 81.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Won
No$500 @ 60.0¢
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Won
Yes$543 @ 91.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat?Won
Yes$122 @ 44.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Lost
No$136 @ 34.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Won
No$48 @ 24.0¢
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?Lost
Yes$376 @ 48.5¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Lost
Yes$296 @ 50.0¢
Will Trump issue an AI Safety Executive Order by October 31?Lost
Yes$28 @ 7.1¢
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$165 @ 59.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Won
No$826 @ 65.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.5k @ 69.1¢
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$26 @ 7.0¢
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?Lost
Yes$93 @ 31.0¢
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?Lost
No$300 @ 20.0¢
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Won
No$70 @ 97.0¢
Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?Won
Yes$193 @ 62.0¢
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?Lost
No$3 @ 19.0¢
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?Lost
No$390 @ 65.0¢
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
Yes$72 @ 12.0¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
No$598 @ 59.6¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
Yes$260 @ 65.5¢
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
Yes$62 @ 41.1¢
Will OpenRouter process at least 725T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25?Won
No$379 @ 66.3¢
Will OpenRouter process less than 575T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25?Lost
Yes$65 @ 10.9¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$2.7k	51.2¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$2.7k	55.3¢
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$2.6k	87.9¢
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Crypto	Yes	$2.4k	62.2¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$2.1k	24.1¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$2.0k	27.7¢
Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2027?	Politics	No	$1.5k	81.0¢
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$1.3k	26.4¢
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$927	41.1¢
Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$845	44.4¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$842	65.0¢
Ossoff ahead of Newsom on November 30?	Politics	Yes	$818	84.2¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$781	24.0¢
Will Sabrina Carpenter release an album in 2026?	Culture	No	$710	78.8¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$642	26.8¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$618	25.7¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Business	No	$557	36.9¢
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$486	37.0¢
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Politics	No	$454	30.2¢
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?	Tech	No	$430	60.8¢
Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$419	97.0¢
Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$406	8.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-09 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$400	73.5¢
Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?	Politics	Yes	$371	64.1¢
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$363	90.8¢
Will US annex any territory in 2026?	Politics	No	$356	89.0¢
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$330	15.0¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$318	31.5¢
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?	Politics	Yes	$316	42.9¢
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 12?	Culture	No	$313	29.7¢

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?Tech
Yes$2.7k @ 51.2¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$2.7k @ 55.3¢
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$2.6k @ 87.9¢
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?Crypto
Yes$2.4k @ 62.2¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Tech
Yes$2.1k @ 24.1¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$2.0k @ 27.7¢
Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2027?Politics
No$1.5k @ 81.0¢
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Tech
Yes$1.3k @ 26.4¢
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$927 @ 41.1¢
Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?Politics
Yes$845 @ 44.4¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$842 @ 65.0¢
Ossoff ahead of Newsom on November 30?Politics
Yes$818 @ 84.2¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?Politics
Yes$781 @ 24.0¢
Will Sabrina Carpenter release an album in 2026?Culture
No$710 @ 78.8¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$642 @ 26.8¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
Yes$618 @ 25.7¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Business
No$557 @ 36.9¢
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$486 @ 37.0¢
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Politics
No$454 @ 30.2¢
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?Tech
No$430 @ 60.8¢
Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027?Business
No$419 @ 97.0¢
Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$406 @ 8.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-09 House seat?Politics
Yes$400 @ 73.5¢
Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?Politics
Yes$371 @ 64.1¢
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$363 @ 90.8¢
Will US annex any territory in 2026?Politics
No$356 @ 89.0¢
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?Politics
Yes$330 @ 15.0¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?Tech
No$318 @ 31.5¢
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?Politics
Yes$316 @ 42.9¢
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 12?Culture
No$313 @ 29.7¢