0xd590…5eee

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd5906fdc94052db6949963748e2728b740415eee
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-7.0pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

20% @ 27.5¢

Brier

0.145

Resolved

259

Avg size

$315

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	30% (13/43)	+8%	43
Other	25% (10/40)	+3%	40
Tech	40% (2/5)	+72%	5
Geopolitics	40% (2/5)	+80%	5
Economy	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Politics43 bets
Hit rate
30% (13/43)
ROI
+8%
Other40 bets
Hit rate
25% (10/40)
ROI
+3%
Tech5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
+72%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
+80%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

28% hit · 27/95

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	No	$300	3.7¢	Lost
Will Duke Rodriguez win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?	No	$100	52.1¢	Won
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$10	1.3¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$3.3k	43.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$150	27.0¢	Lost
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$49	49.0¢	Won
Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30?	Yes	$29	28.8¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	No	$20	5.0¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?	Yes	$35	35.0¢	Lost
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Yes	$100	14.6¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$1000	28.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$7.0k	70.3¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$100	16.9¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	$5.2k	40.1¢	Lost
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	$111	8.0¢	Lost
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-13?	Yes	$100	41.9¢	Lost
Will TISZA win <42% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?	Yes	$32	6.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$481	0.9¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$2.5k	41.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	No	$3.0k	41.8¢	Won
Will Eric Jones advance from the CA-04 primary election?	No	$82	11.0¢	Lost
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	$1000	54.9¢	Won
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?	No	$100	17.3¢	Won
Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?	Yes	$100	23.1¢	Lost
James Comey arrested by April 29?	No	$50	3.8¢	Lost
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?	Yes	$50	36.0¢	Won
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?	Yes	$30	22.7¢	Lost
Knicks vs. Pacers	Pacers	$26	13.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$5.0k	60.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	$1.0k	40.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$3.2k	28.4¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	$600	39.3¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	No	$20	0.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$7.3k	40.2¢	Lost
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	$100	35.0¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	$28	7.0¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	Yes	$10	14.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$600	20.8¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$50	0.6¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$200	50.0¢	Won
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$50	30.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	$1.5k	33.9¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?	Yes	$580	45.1¢	Lost
Netanyahu out by March 31?	Yes	$33	5.5¢	Lost
Claude 4.7 released by June 30?	No	$50	39.8¢	Lost
Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	$48	12.0¢	Lost
Bucks vs. Heat	Heat	$100	81.0¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	Yes	$200	14.0¢	Lost
Will New Slovenia – Christian Democrats (NSi) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?	Yes	$25	19.8¢	Won
Claude 4.7 released by May 31?	No	$30	5.6¢	Lost

US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$300 @ 3.7¢
Will Duke Rodriguez win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?Won
No$100 @ 52.1¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$10 @ 1.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$3.3k @ 43.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$150 @ 27.0¢
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?Won
Yes$49 @ 49.0¢
Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30?Lost
Yes$29 @ 28.8¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Lost
No$20 @ 5.0¢
Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?Lost
Yes$35 @ 35.0¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Lost
Yes$100 @ 14.6¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$1000 @ 28.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$7.0k @ 70.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$100 @ 16.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$5.2k @ 40.1¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Lost
Yes$111 @ 8.0¢
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-13?Lost
Yes$100 @ 41.9¢
Will TISZA win <42% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$32 @ 6.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$481 @ 0.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$2.5k @ 41.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Won
No$3.0k @ 41.8¢
Will Eric Jones advance from the CA-04 primary election?Lost
No$82 @ 11.0¢
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?Won
No$1000 @ 54.9¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?Won
No$100 @ 17.3¢
Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?Lost
Yes$100 @ 23.1¢
James Comey arrested by April 29?Lost
No$50 @ 3.8¢
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?Won
Yes$50 @ 36.0¢
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?Lost
Yes$30 @ 22.7¢
Knicks vs. PacersLost
Pacers$26 @ 13.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$5.0k @ 60.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$1.0k @ 40.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$3.2k @ 28.4¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Won
Yes$600 @ 39.3¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Lost
No$20 @ 0.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$7.3k @ 40.2¢
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?Lost
No$100 @ 35.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Lost
Yes$28 @ 7.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?Lost
Yes$10 @ 14.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$600 @ 20.8¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$50 @ 0.6¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$200 @ 50.0¢
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 30.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$1.5k @ 33.9¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?Lost
Yes$580 @ 45.1¢
Netanyahu out by March 31?Lost
Yes$33 @ 5.5¢
Claude 4.7 released by June 30?Lost
No$50 @ 39.8¢
Netanyahu out by June 30?Lost
Yes$48 @ 12.0¢
Bucks vs. HeatWon
Heat$100 @ 81.0¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Lost
Yes$200 @ 14.0¢
Will New Slovenia – Christian Democrats (NSi) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?Won
Yes$25 @ 19.8¢
Claude 4.7 released by May 31?Lost
No$30 @ 5.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	No	$1.0k	57.0¢
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	Tech	No	$1.0k	69.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.0k	34.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	Politics	Yes	$657	36.2¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$500	9.8¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$500	10.7¢
Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Politics	No	$470	21.6¢
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$317	35.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Tech	Yes	$263	43.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$252	28.0¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$220	16.9¢
Will Bernie endorse Kshama Sawant for WA-09 by Nov 2 2026 ET?	Politics	No	$201	69.0¢
Will Jaunā Vienotība (JV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?	Politics	No	$134	62.9¢
Will Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?	Politics	Yes	$100	10.7¢
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Politics	No	$69	38.6¢
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	Economy	Yes	$40	13.0¢
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%?	Economy	No	$20	36.0¢

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
No$1.0k @ 57.0¢
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?Tech
No$1.0k @ 69.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$1.0k @ 34.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?Politics
Yes$657 @ 36.2¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$500 @ 9.8¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
Yes$500 @ 10.7¢
Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Politics
No$470 @ 21.6¢
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$317 @ 35.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
Yes$263 @ 43.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
Yes$252 @ 28.0¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
Yes$220 @ 16.9¢
Will Bernie endorse Kshama Sawant for WA-09 by Nov 2 2026 ET?Politics
No$201 @ 69.0¢
Will Jaunā Vienotība (JV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?Politics
No$134 @ 62.9¢
Will Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?Politics
Yes$100 @ 10.7¢
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?Politics
No$69 @ 38.6¢
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?Economy
Yes$40 @ 13.0¢
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%?Economy
No$20 @ 36.0¢