0xd4c7…9f6a

Specialization by sphere

• Other100 bets

  Hit rate

  57% (57/100)

  ROI

  +12%

• Politics22 bets

  Hit rate

  86% (19/22)

  ROI

  +29%

• Geopolitics8 bets

  Hit rate

  75% (6/8)

  ROI

  -8%

• Sports3 bets

  Hit rate

  67% (2/3)

  ROI

  +105%

• Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026?Won
  No$53 @ 88.0¢
• Will the government shutdown end November 12?Won
  No$16 @ 80.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Lost
  Yes$22 @ 37.0¢
• Will Netanyahu be pardoned in 2025?Won
  No$17 @ 86.0¢
• Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30?Won
  No$40 @ 80.0¢
• Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$40 @ 66.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$78 @ 78.0¢
• Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?Won
  Yes$41 @ 68.0¢
• Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Won
  Yes$28 @ 69.0¢
• Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
  Yes$22 @ 72.0¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Won
  No$73 @ 73.1¢
• Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31?Won
  No$15 @ 49.0¢
• Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
  Yes$5 @ 5.2¢
• Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 4 ET?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 1.3¢
• Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$44 @ 73.7¢
• US x Iran nuclear talks resume by December 31? Lost
  Yes$5 @ 31.0¢
• Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Won
  No$35 @ 88.0¢
• Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?Won
  Yes$6 @ 24.0¢
• Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026?Won
  No$3 @ 77.0¢
• Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Won
  No$58 @ 83.4¢
• Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Lost
  No$45 @ 64.6¢
• Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$4 @ 8.0¢
• Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?Won
  No$74 @ 82.0¢
• Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?Won
  No$38 @ 76.0¢
• Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by December 31?Won
  Yes$11 @ 57.0¢
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 19.0¢
• Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?Won
  No$64 @ 80.0¢
• Will Bill or Hillary publicly testify before congress by Feb 28?Won
  No$26 @ 88.0¢
• US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
  No$34 @ 85.0¢
• Will Israel strike 1 country in 2026?Won
  No$46 @ 66.1¢
• Will Israel strike Gaza on October 22?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 14.0¢
• Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
  No$18 @ 88.9¢
• Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?Lost
  Yes$9 @ 15.0¢
• Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026?Won
  No$52 @ 65.0¢
• Will Israel participate in Eurovision 2026?Won
  Yes$22 @ 52.8¢
• Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?Lost
  No$10 @ 49.0¢
• US government shutdown Saturday?Won
  Yes$25 @ 82.0¢
• Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?Won
  No$12 @ 61.0¢
• Trump announces new drug boat strike by December 31?Won
  Yes$28 @ 70.0¢
• Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?Won
  No$40 @ 80.0¢
• Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?Won
  No$28 @ 70.0¢
• Will Trump say "Anarchist" this week? (September 29 - October 5)Lost
  Yes$4 @ 40.0¢
• Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?Lost
  Yes$4 @ 7.4¢
• Will Israel not raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30 ET?Won
  Yes$30 @ 66.0¢
• Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?Lost
  No$1 @ 4.7¢
• Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?Lost
  No$48 @ 68.6¢
• Maduro out by January 31, 2026?Lost
  No$16 @ 80.0¢
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Won
  No$42 @ 84.0¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
  No$8 @ 8.0¢
• Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30?Won
  No$39 @ 78.0¢

Current positions

• Israel election: will Likud lose seats?Politics
  Yes$194 @ 82.5¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
  No$145 @ 72.4¢
• Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
  No$119 @ 79.0¢
• Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
  Yes$114 @ 78.2¢
• Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
  No$100 @ 83.0¢
• Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?Politics
  No$99 @ 82.9¢
• Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?Politics
  No$97 @ 80.5¢
• Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?Politics
  No$92 @ 74.3¢
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$91 @ 81.9¢
• IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?Politics
  No$80 @ 80.0¢
• Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$73 @ 73.0¢
• Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?Politics
  Opp.$62 @ 44.3¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$61 @ 61.1¢
• Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  No$56 @ 56.3¢
• Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
  Yes$50 @ 62.0¢
• Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
  No$47 @ 79.0¢
• Will Israel election happen as scheduled?Politics
  Yes$46 @ 91.8¢
• Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
  No$28 @ 55.0¢
• Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31Politics
  No$17 @ 59.5¢
• US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
  Yes$16 @ 27.0¢
• Netanyahu convicted in corruption trial?Politics
  Yes$14 @ 15.0¢
• Costco increases hotdog price before 2027?Economy
  Yes$14 @ 9.3¢
• Will Trump end Department of Education before 2027?Politics
  Yes$6 @ 12.0¢