0xd2ec…059c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd2ec9a58365926933cee561d40195847340e059c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.4pp

ROI

+16%

Win rate

67% @ 54.1¢

Brier

0.215

Resolved

200

Avg size

$35

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	68% (25/37)	+10%	37
Other	62% (13/21)	+24%	21
Geopolitics	73% (8/11)	+28%	11
Crypto	75% (3/4)	+26%	4
Sports	50% (1/2)	-56%	2
Tech	100% (1/1)	+14%	1

Politics37 bets
Hit rate
68% (25/37)
ROI
+10%
Other21 bets
Hit rate
62% (13/21)
ROI
+24%
Geopolitics11 bets
Hit rate
73% (8/11)
ROI
+28%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+26%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-56%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+14%

Track record

67% hit · 51/76

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$49	28.7¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$174	67.3¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	$223	81.1¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$162	54.1¢	Won
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101?	Yes	$70	85.2¢	Won
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?	No	$79	35.9¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$118	84.1¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$51	56.3¢	Lost
Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?	No	$51	88.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$22	27.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$122	53.2¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$74	38.8¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	No	$44	88.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	$29	29.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	$87	87.2¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	$120	80.1¢	Lost
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	$20	29.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$69	86.8¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$61	76.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	No	$103	86.0¢	Won
Will France win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$5	1.2¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$122	19.4¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$186	69.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$173	21.0¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?	No	$41	81.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$200	80.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$265	88.3¢	Won
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$62	69.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$40	26.6¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	Yes	$117	65.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	Yes	$32	63.0¢	Lost
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	$261	76.4¢	Won
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	$82	66.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?	No	$81	81.0¢	Won
Will Switzerland win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$1	0.7¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$174	87.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	Yes	$94	37.4¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$112	80.0¢	Won
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	$16	13.4¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$31	62.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$51	71.3¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$207	69.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$69	69.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?	Yes	$106	66.0¢	Won
Will Enzo Fernandez join Manchester City?	Yes	$34	33.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	$30	33.0¢	Lost
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$26	86.0¢	Won
Will Trump shake hands with Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the World Economic Forum?	Yes	$95	47.2¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	No	$124	77.2¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$75	75.0¢	Lost

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$49 @ 28.7¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$174 @ 67.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Won
No$223 @ 81.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$162 @ 54.1¢
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101?Won
Yes$70 @ 85.2¢
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?Lost
No$79 @ 35.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$118 @ 84.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$51 @ 56.3¢
Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?Won
No$51 @ 88.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$22 @ 27.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$122 @ 53.2¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$74 @ 38.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Won
No$44 @ 88.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$29 @ 29.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Won
No$87 @ 87.2¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Lost
Yes$120 @ 80.1¢
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Lost
Yes$20 @ 29.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$69 @ 86.8¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$61 @ 76.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Won
No$103 @ 86.0¢
Will France win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.2¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$122 @ 19.4¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$186 @ 69.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$173 @ 21.0¢
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?Won
No$41 @ 81.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$200 @ 80.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$265 @ 88.3¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$62 @ 69.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$40 @ 26.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Won
Yes$117 @ 65.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$32 @ 63.0¢
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Won
Yes$261 @ 76.4¢
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Won
No$82 @ 66.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?Won
No$81 @ 81.0¢
Will Switzerland win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.7¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$174 @ 87.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Won
Yes$94 @ 37.4¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$112 @ 80.0¢
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Lost
Yes$16 @ 13.4¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$31 @ 62.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$51 @ 71.3¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$207 @ 69.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$69 @ 69.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?Won
Yes$106 @ 66.0¢
Will Enzo Fernandez join Manchester City?Won
Yes$34 @ 33.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$30 @ 33.0¢
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Won
Yes$26 @ 86.0¢
Will Trump shake hands with Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the World Economic Forum?Won
Yes$95 @ 47.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Won
No$124 @ 77.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$75 @ 75.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$323	97.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$273	81.5¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$182	91.0¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$169	85.2¢
Will Kate Scott attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	Sports	Yes	$165	96.4¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$163	81.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	No	$156	92.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$141	91.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$132	69.4¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	Sports	No	$122	81.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$96	76.5¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	No	$92	71.0¢
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$75	93.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Politics	Yes	$70	78.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$57	73.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$49	70.0¢
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Sports	Yes	$42	21.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$42	30.0¢
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$29	23.0¢
Will Vincent Kompany attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	Sports	No	$19	95.0¢
Will Jürgen Klopp attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	Sports	No	$14	71.0¢

Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$323 @ 97.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$273 @ 81.5¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$182 @ 91.0¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$169 @ 85.2¢
Will Kate Scott attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?Sports
Yes$165 @ 96.4¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics
No$163 @ 81.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
No$156 @ 92.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$141 @ 91.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$132 @ 69.4¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?Sports
No$122 @ 81.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$96 @ 76.5¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
No$92 @ 71.0¢
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$75 @ 93.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
Yes$70 @ 78.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$57 @ 73.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$49 @ 70.0¢
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Sports
Yes$42 @ 21.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$42 @ 30.0¢
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$29 @ 23.0¢
Will Vincent Kompany attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?Sports
No$19 @ 95.0¢
Will Jürgen Klopp attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?Sports
No$14 @ 71.0¢