0xd2de…099b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd2de8b687c03ff6e779ff9d8b02bd60b442c099b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+10.6pp

ROI

+20%

Win rate

79% @ 68.2¢

Brier

0.142

Resolved

175

Avg size

$11

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	84% (51/61)	+30%	61
Politics	79% (41/52)	-1%	52
Geopolitics	92% (11/12)	+11%	12
Sports	86% (6/7)	+20%	7

Other61 bets
Hit rate
84% (51/61)
ROI
+30%
Politics52 bets
Hit rate
79% (41/52)
ROI
-1%
Geopolitics12 bets
Hit rate
92% (11/12)
ROI
+11%
Sports7 bets
Hit rate
86% (6/7)
ROI
+20%

Track record

83% hit · 109/132

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	Yes	$5	75.0¢	Lost
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$10	80.0¢	Won
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	$1	65.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$128	79.5¢	Won
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	$8	27.7¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$278	67.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$10	79.5¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$35	65.9¢	Won
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	No	$1	82.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$14	73.5¢	Won
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?	No	$33	82.7¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$4	62.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?	No	$3	0.3¢	Lost
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$93	62.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	$50	67.6¢	Won
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$2	20.0¢	Lost
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	$1	44.0¢	Lost
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	$18	68.6¢	Won
US strikes Iraq by February 28?	Yes	$46	21.5¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	No	$16	90.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$19	78.3¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	$8	60.8¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	$25	87.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$35	80.4¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$10	62.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	$43	49.1¢	Lost
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026?	No	$5	87.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	$33	78.0¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	No	$25	77.0¢	Won
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	$21	77.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	$3	63.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	$5	81.8¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	No	$4	49.9¢	Lost
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?	No	$5	89.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	No	$7	89.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	$72	60.5¢	Lost
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	No	$10	74.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	$1	79.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	No	$5	81.3¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	Yes	$1	63.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	$2	66.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	$5	75.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	$10	84.0¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$10	95.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	$20	82.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	$1	10.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?	No	$28	93.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	$30	93.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	No	$20	91.0¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$50	91.0¢	Won

Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?Lost
Yes$5 @ 75.0¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$10 @ 80.0¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Won
No$1 @ 65.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$128 @ 79.5¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Lost
Yes$8 @ 27.7¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$278 @ 67.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 79.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$35 @ 65.9¢
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Won
No$1 @ 82.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$14 @ 73.5¢
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?Won
No$33 @ 82.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$4 @ 62.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?Lost
No$3 @ 0.3¢
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?Won
Yes$93 @ 62.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
No$50 @ 67.6¢
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$2 @ 20.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 44.0¢
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?Won
No$18 @ 68.6¢
US strikes Iraq by February 28?Won
Yes$46 @ 21.5¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Won
No$16 @ 90.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$19 @ 78.3¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?Won
No$8 @ 60.8¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Won
No$25 @ 87.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$35 @ 80.4¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$10 @ 62.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Lost
No$43 @ 49.1¢
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 87.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?Won
No$33 @ 78.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?Won
No$25 @ 77.0¢
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$21 @ 77.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Won
No$3 @ 63.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?Won
No$5 @ 81.8¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Lost
No$4 @ 49.9¢
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?Won
No$5 @ 89.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?Won
No$7 @ 89.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$72 @ 60.5¢
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?Lost
No$10 @ 74.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 79.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?Won
No$5 @ 81.3¢
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?Won
Yes$1 @ 63.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?Won
No$2 @ 66.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?Lost
Yes$5 @ 75.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?Won
No$10 @ 84.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 95.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Won
No$20 @ 82.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 10.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?Won
No$28 @ 93.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?Won
No$30 @ 93.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Won
No$20 @ 91.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Won
No$50 @ 91.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$252	80.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$59	84.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	—	Yes	$35	87.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	—	No	$31	91.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?	—	No	$30	82.3¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	—	No	$21	78.1¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	—	No	$17	89.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	—	Yes	$16	78.1¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	—	No	$15	90.5¢
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$12	2.3¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$11	93.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?	—	No	$11	91.0¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$10	88.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	—	No	$10	62.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Politics	No	$10	43.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$5	91.0¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in September?	—	No	$5	67.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$3	91.2¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 25?	Politics	Yes	$1	81.0¢

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?—
No$252 @ 80.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?—
No$59 @ 84.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?—
Yes$35 @ 87.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?—
No$31 @ 91.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?—
No$30 @ 82.3¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?—
No$21 @ 78.1¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?—
No$17 @ 89.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?—
Yes$16 @ 78.1¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?—
No$15 @ 90.5¢
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
Yes$12 @ 2.3¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026?—
No$11 @ 93.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?—
No$11 @ 91.0¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$10 @ 88.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?—
No$10 @ 62.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Politics
No$10 @ 43.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?—
No$5 @ 91.0¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in September?—
No$5 @ 67.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$3 @ 91.2¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 25?Politics
Yes$1 @ 81.0¢