0xd2de…099b

Specialization by sphere

• Other18 bets

  Hit rate

  78% (14/18)

  ROI

  +66%

• Politics11 bets

  Hit rate

  91% (10/11)

  ROI

  +7%

• Geopolitics4 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (4/4)

  ROI

  +16%

• US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
  No$10 @ 80.0¢
• Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Won
  No$1 @ 65.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$128 @ 79.5¢
• Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
  Yes$278 @ 67.7¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
  No$10 @ 79.5¢
• U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Won
  No$1 @ 82.0¢
• US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
  No$14 @ 73.5¢
• US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?Won
  No$33 @ 82.7¢
• Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?Lost
  No$3 @ 0.3¢
• Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?Won
  Yes$93 @ 62.5¢
• Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?Won
  No$18 @ 68.6¢
• US strikes Iraq by February 28?Won
  Yes$46 @ 21.5¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Won
  No$16 @ 90.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
  No$5 @ 79.0¢
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$8 @ 60.8¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Won
  No$25 @ 87.0¢
• Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Won
  No$2 @ 87.5¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
  No$35 @ 80.4¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
  No$10 @ 62.0¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Lost
  No$43 @ 49.1¢
• Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$5 @ 87.0¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?Won
  No$25 @ 77.0¢
• Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?Won
  Yes$21 @ 77.7¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$3 @ 63.0¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?Won
  No$5 @ 81.8¢
• Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Lost
  No$4 @ 49.9¢
• Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?Won
  No$5 @ 89.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$1 @ 79.0¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?Won
  No$5 @ 81.3¢
• Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?Won
  Yes$1 @ 63.0¢
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?Won
  No$2 @ 66.0¢
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?Lost
  Yes$5 @ 75.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?Won
  No$10 @ 84.0¢

Current positions

• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
  No$107 @ 93.9¢
• Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics
  No$50 @ 95.9¢
• Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$50 @ 93.0¢
• Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$50 @ 84.6¢
• Iran leadership change by June 30?Politics
  No$35 @ 94.1¢
• Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
  Yes$35 @ 2.3¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?Politics
  No$33 @ 95.0¢
• Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
  No$25 @ 91.2¢
• Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30?Geopolitics
  No$20 @ 97.0¢
• Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?Politics
  No$15 @ 94.7¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Politics
  Yes$13 @ 65.0¢
• US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?Politics
  No$12 @ 95.5¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Politics
  No$10 @ 87.0¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Politics
  No$5 @ 95.3¢
• Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?Politics
  No$5 @ 96.7¢
• Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?Politics
  No$5 @ 92.0¢
• Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by June 30?Politics
  No$5 @ 91.0¢
• Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?Geopolitics
  No$5 @ 92.0¢
• Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?Politics
  No$5 @ 96.5¢
• Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?Geopolitics
  No$4 @ 84.0¢