0xd2de…099b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd2de8b687c03ff6e779ff9d8b02bd60b442c099b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+17.5pp

ROI

+46%

Win rate

83% @ 65.6¢

Brier

0.150

Resolved

Avg size

$12

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	79% (15/19)	+65%	19
Politics	85% (11/13)	+6%	13
Geopolitics	100% (4/4)	+19%	4

Other19 bets
Hit rate
79% (15/19)
ROI
+65%
Politics13 bets
Hit rate
85% (11/13)
ROI
+6%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
100% (4/4)
ROI
+19%

Track record

83% hit · 30/36

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$10	80.0¢	Won
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	$1	65.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$128	79.5¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$278	67.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$10	79.5¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$14	73.5¢	Won
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?	No	$33	82.7¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?	No	$3	0.3¢	Lost
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$93	62.5¢	Won
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	$1	44.0¢	Lost
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	$18	68.6¢	Won
US strikes Iraq by February 28?	Yes	$46	21.5¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	No	$16	90.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$19	78.3¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	$8	60.8¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	$25	87.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$35	80.4¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$10	62.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	$43	49.1¢	Lost
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026?	No	$5	87.0¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	No	$25	77.0¢	Won
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	$21	77.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	$3	63.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	$5	81.8¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	No	$4	49.9¢	Lost
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?	No	$5	89.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	$1	79.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	No	$5	81.3¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	Yes	$1	63.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	$2	66.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	$5	75.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	$10	84.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19?	No	$27	95.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?	No	$2	92.0¢	Won
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	No	$1	82.0¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	$2	87.5¢	Won

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$10 @ 80.0¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Won
No$1 @ 65.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$128 @ 79.5¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$278 @ 67.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 79.5¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$14 @ 73.5¢
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?Won
No$33 @ 82.7¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?Lost
No$3 @ 0.3¢
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?Won
Yes$93 @ 62.5¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 44.0¢
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?Won
No$18 @ 68.6¢
US strikes Iraq by February 28?Won
Yes$46 @ 21.5¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Won
No$16 @ 90.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$19 @ 78.3¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?Won
No$8 @ 60.8¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Won
No$25 @ 87.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$35 @ 80.4¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$10 @ 62.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Lost
No$43 @ 49.1¢
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 87.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?Won
No$25 @ 77.0¢
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$21 @ 77.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Won
No$3 @ 63.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?Won
No$5 @ 81.8¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Lost
No$4 @ 49.9¢
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?Won
No$5 @ 89.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 79.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?Won
No$5 @ 81.3¢
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?Won
Yes$1 @ 63.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?Won
No$2 @ 66.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?Lost
Yes$5 @ 75.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?Won
No$10 @ 84.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19?Won
No$27 @ 95.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?Won
No$2 @ 92.0¢
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Won
No$1 @ 82.0¢
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Won
No$2 @ 87.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$85	93.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	—	No	$72	84.3¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	—	No	$50	60.3¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Politics	No	$50	91.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?	—	No	$50	81.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	—	No	$46	69.8¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$35	82.7¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?	Politics	No	$30	35.8¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$25	91.2¢
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$25	2.3¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15?	Politics	No	$24	84.4¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$20	94.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	—	No	$18	93.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$10	60.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	—	Yes	$10	89.5¢
Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?	—	No	$10	87.9¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by August 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$10	97.8¢
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$10	93.9¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31?	Politics	No	$10	93.0¢
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?	—	No	$7	96.1¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Politics	No	$5	84.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	—	Yes	$5	57.0¢

Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026?Politics
No$85 @ 93.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?—
No$72 @ 84.3¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?—
No$50 @ 60.3¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Politics
No$50 @ 91.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?—
No$50 @ 81.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?—
No$46 @ 69.8¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?—
No$35 @ 82.7¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Politics
No$30 @ 35.8¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$25 @ 91.2¢
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
Yes$25 @ 2.3¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15?Politics
No$24 @ 84.4¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?Politics
No$20 @ 94.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?—
No$18 @ 93.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$10 @ 60.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?—
Yes$10 @ 89.5¢
Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?—
No$10 @ 87.9¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by August 31, 2026?Politics
No$10 @ 97.8¢
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Politics
No$10 @ 93.9¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31?Politics
No$10 @ 93.0¢
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?—
No$7 @ 96.1¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Politics
No$5 @ 84.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?—
Yes$5 @ 57.0¢