0xd1a8…fb82

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd1a844168b376595171e21f95f2f2245434bfb82
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.5pp

ROI

+25%

Win rate

45% @ 31.2¢

Brier

0.112

Resolved

244

Avg size

$18

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	61% (20/33)	+23%	33
Politics	33% (5/15)	+7%	15
Geopolitics	100% (5/5)	+98%	5

Other33 bets
Hit rate
61% (20/33)
ROI
+23%
Politics15 bets
Hit rate
33% (5/15)
ROI
+7%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
100% (5/5)
ROI
+98%

Track record

57% hit · 30/53

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?	No	$1	25.0¢	Won
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$28	70.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	Yes	$26	26.3¢	Won
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$10	16.0¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$15	29.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$201	67.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 17, 2026?	No	$3	38.0¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$7	66.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$70	66.2¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	No	$1	7.0¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$66	8.4¢	Lost
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	No	$9	67.0¢	Won
Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	$15	73.0¢	Won
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	$102	84.0¢	Won
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	$47	4.1¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$359	49.9¢	Won
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?	Yes	$2	24.0¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	$15	66.0¢	Won
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.5–0.6%?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	Yes	$22	10.7¢	Lost
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	$491	72.1¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$113	6.2¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	No	$236	85.0¢	Won
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	No	$219	73.0¢	Won
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.5–0.6%?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	$8	77.0¢	Won
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	$23	76.0¢	Won
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?	No	$12	81.0¢	Won
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	$12	46.8¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$963	65.2¢	Won
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?	No	$103	84.2¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	$4	20.7¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	$278	67.2¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	$13	71.0¢	Won
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?	No	$15	8.3¢	Lost
Will "Shit" be said 5+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	No	$2	0.7¢	Lost
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.6–0.7%?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?	No	$2	17.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	No	$9	78.0¢	Won
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$49	1.5¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	$73	36.5¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	$14	68.0¢	Won
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.7–0.8%?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?	Yes	$5	19.0¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?	Yes	$16	41.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	No	$67	33.5¢	Won
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$62	59.2¢	Lost
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by April 30?	No	$10	50.0¢	Won

Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 25.0¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$28 @ 70.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Won
Yes$26 @ 26.3¢
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 16.0¢
Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 29.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$201 @ 67.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 17, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 38.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$7 @ 66.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$70 @ 66.2¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?Lost
No$1 @ 7.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$66 @ 8.4¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?Won
No$9 @ 67.0¢
Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$15 @ 73.0¢
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?Won
No$102 @ 84.0¢
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$47 @ 4.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$359 @ 49.9¢
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?Won
Yes$2 @ 24.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Won
No$15 @ 66.0¢
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.5–0.6%?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?Lost
Yes$22 @ 10.7¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Won
No$491 @ 72.1¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$113 @ 6.2¢
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?Won
No$236 @ 85.0¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?Won
No$219 @ 73.0¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.5–0.6%?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?Won
No$8 @ 77.0¢
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
No$23 @ 76.0¢
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?Won
No$12 @ 81.0¢
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?Won
Yes$12 @ 46.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$963 @ 65.2¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?Won
No$103 @ 84.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 20.7¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Lost
No$278 @ 67.2¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Won
No$13 @ 71.0¢
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?Lost
No$15 @ 8.3¢
Will "Shit" be said 5+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Lost
No$2 @ 0.7¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.6–0.7%?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 17.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Won
No$9 @ 78.0¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
No$49 @ 1.5¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?Lost
No$73 @ 36.5¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?Won
No$14 @ 68.0¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.7–0.8%?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 19.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$16 @ 41.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?Won
No$67 @ 33.5¢
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$62 @ 59.2¢
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by April 30?Won
No$10 @ 50.0¢

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