0xd1a8…fb82

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd1a844168b376595171e21f95f2f2245434bfb82
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+14.6pp

ROI

+28%

Win rate

47% @ 32.7¢

Brier

0.118

Resolved

230

Avg size

$19

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	63% (24/38)	+29%	38
Politics	37% (7/19)	-36%	19
Geopolitics	100% (8/8)	+89%	8

Other38 bets
Hit rate
63% (24/38)
ROI
+29%
Politics19 bets
Hit rate
37% (7/19)
ROI
-36%
Geopolitics8 bets
Hit rate
100% (8/8)
ROI
+89%

Track record

60% hit · 39/65

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	$31	54.5¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	$20	67.0¢	Won
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	No	$10	6.1¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?	No	$2	26.0¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?	No	$5	26.0¢	Won
Will Solana dip to $70 in July?	Yes	$10	49.0¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	No	$46	58.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	No	$21	41.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$70	35.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$1.2k	63.4¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	No	$131	87.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	$88	44.0¢	Won
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?	No	$1	25.0¢	Won
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$28	70.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	Yes	$26	26.3¢	Won
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$10	16.0¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$15	29.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$201	67.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 17, 2026?	No	$3	38.0¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$7	66.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$70	66.2¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	No	$1	7.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	No	$9	67.0¢	Won
Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	$15	73.0¢	Won
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	$102	84.0¢	Won
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	$47	4.1¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$359	49.9¢	Won
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?	Yes	$2	24.0¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	$15	66.0¢	Won
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.5–0.6%?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	Yes	$22	10.7¢	Lost
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	$491	72.1¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$113	6.2¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	No	$236	85.0¢	Won
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	No	$219	73.0¢	Won
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.5–0.6%?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	$8	77.0¢	Won
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	$23	76.0¢	Won
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?	No	$12	81.0¢	Won
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	$12	46.8¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$963	65.2¢	Won
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?	No	$103	84.2¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	$4	20.7¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	$278	67.2¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	$13	71.0¢	Won
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?	No	$15	8.3¢	Lost
Will "Shit" be said 5+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	No	$2	0.7¢	Lost
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.6–0.7%?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost

Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?Lost
No$31 @ 54.5¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Won
Yes$20 @ 67.0¢
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 6.1¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?Won
No$2 @ 26.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?Won
No$5 @ 26.0¢
Will Solana dip to $70 in July?Lost
Yes$10 @ 49.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Won
No$46 @ 58.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
No$21 @ 41.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$70 @ 35.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 63.4¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Won
No$131 @ 87.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Won
No$88 @ 44.0¢
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 25.0¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$28 @ 70.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Won
Yes$26 @ 26.3¢
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 16.0¢
Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 29.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$201 @ 67.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 17, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 38.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$7 @ 66.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$70 @ 66.2¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?Lost
No$1 @ 7.0¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?Won
No$9 @ 67.0¢
Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$15 @ 73.0¢
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?Won
No$102 @ 84.0¢
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$47 @ 4.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$359 @ 49.9¢
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?Won
Yes$2 @ 24.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Won
No$15 @ 66.0¢
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.5–0.6%?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?Lost
Yes$22 @ 10.7¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Won
No$491 @ 72.1¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$113 @ 6.2¢
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?Won
No$236 @ 85.0¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?Won
No$219 @ 73.0¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.5–0.6%?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?Won
No$8 @ 77.0¢
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
No$23 @ 76.0¢
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?Won
No$12 @ 81.0¢
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?Won
Yes$12 @ 46.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$963 @ 65.2¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?Won
No$103 @ 84.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 20.7¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Lost
No$278 @ 67.2¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Won
No$13 @ 71.0¢
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?Lost
No$15 @ 8.3¢
Will "Shit" be said 5+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Lost
No$2 @ 0.7¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.6–0.7%?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Crypto	No	$147	28.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$47	20.0¢

Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?Crypto
No$147 @ 28.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$47 @ 20.0¢