0xd11c…0d06

Specialization by sphere

• Politics53 bets

  Hit rate

  70% (37/53)

  ROI

  -0%

• Other28 bets

  Hit rate

  61% (17/28)

  ROI

  +54%

• Geopolitics9 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (9/9)

  ROI

  +41%

• Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Won
  No$4 @ 82.0¢
• Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
  No$4 @ 31.0¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Won
  No$2 @ 85.0¢
• Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?Lost
  No$4 @ 22.3¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Won
  No$13 @ 87.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$8 @ 69.0¢
• Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Lost
  No$5 @ 67.0¢
• Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
  No$85 @ 76.6¢
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Won
  No$1 @ 70.0¢
• Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Won
  No$30 @ 74.6¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
  No$13 @ 82.6¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Lost
  No$15 @ 55.0¢
• U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Won
  No$42 @ 84.4¢
• Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$4 @ 88.4¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Lost
  No$6 @ 44.8¢
• Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?Won
  No$1 @ 89.8¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
  No$7 @ 55.7¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Won
  No$4 @ 43.2¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
  No$11 @ 69.3¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?Won
  No$20 @ 71.3¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?Won
  No$7 @ 41.9¢
• Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?Won
  No$37 @ 71.5¢
• Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$45 @ 76.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Lost
  Yes$4 @ 35.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
  Yes$12 @ 3.9¢
• Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?Won
  No$7 @ 76.3¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
  No$18 @ 82.5¢
• US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
  No$153 @ 38.7¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?Won
  No$10 @ 87.6¢
• Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?Won
  No$11 @ 82.0¢
• US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?Lost
  No$46 @ 42.1¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
  Yes$7 @ 25.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$8 @ 89.0¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Won
  No$4 @ 86.1¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Won
  No$8 @ 47.7¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 50.0¢
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$52 @ 83.1¢
• US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
  No$83 @ 50.4¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?Won
  No$28 @ 84.4¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$23 @ 53.5¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Won
  No$28 @ 71.4¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Lost
  No$72 @ 60.6¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?Won
  No$14 @ 55.6¢
• Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Lost
  No$5 @ 11.0¢
• Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?Lost
  No$32 @ 66.3¢
• Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$7 @ 84.0¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$12 @ 71.8¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
  No$20 @ 86.0¢
• Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$18 @ 80.7¢
• Will Russia capture Bilytske by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$10 @ 70.0¢

Current positions

• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$479 @ 78.4¢
• Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Politics
  No$441 @ 87.0¢
• Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$407 @ 61.7¢
• Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?Politics
  No$383 @ 84.9¢
• Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Politics
  No$179 @ 72.3¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$162 @ 78.8¢
• Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$121 @ 91.9¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$104 @ 81.7¢
• Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?Politics
  No$104 @ 83.1¢
• Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$79 @ 67.9¢
• Russia x Ukraine Peace ComboGeopolitics
  No$73 @ 83.4¢
• Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$57 @ 49.5¢
• Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$47 @ 82.6¢
• Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?Politics
  No$45 @ 94.6¢
• Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$45 @ 89.8¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$42 @ 69.6¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$31 @ 44.1¢
• NATO troops fighting in Yemen before 2027?Politics
  No$21 @ 99.0¢
• Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$17 @ 70.9¢
• Trump meets with Putin by December 31?Politics
  No$16 @ 52.2¢
• NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$14 @ 68.0¢
• EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31?Politics
  No$11 @ 51.2¢
• Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$11 @ 89.4¢
• Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Politics
  No$10 @ 54.0¢
• Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026?Politics
  No$9 @ 98.8¢
• Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?Geopolitics
  No$9 @ 71.5¢
• Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?Geopolitics
  No$7 @ 54.0¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$7 @ 36.4¢
• Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$7 @ 90.9¢
• Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?Politics
  No$3 @ 78.0¢