0xcf19…6402

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+30.2pp

ROI

+161%

Win rate

68% @ 37.4¢

Brier

0.366

Resolved

3139

Avg size

$263

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	66% (61/93)	+143%	93
Sports	49% (36/74)	+30%	74
Other	54% (13/24)	+42%	24
Geopolitics	38% (3/8)	-55%	8
Economy	75% (3/4)	-91%	4

Politics93 bets
Hit rate
66% (61/93)
ROI
+143%
Sports74 bets
Hit rate
49% (36/74)
ROI
+30%
Other24 bets
Hit rate
54% (13/24)
ROI
+42%
Geopolitics8 bets
Hit rate
38% (3/8)
ROI
-55%
Economy4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
-91%

Track record

57% hit · 116/203

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	$94	28.0¢	Lost
Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Zverev	Alexander Zverev	$3.1k	63.0¢	Won
Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Zverev	Taylor Fritz	$1.1k	53.0¢	Lost
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5	Under	$5.9k	46.9¢	Won
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5	Under	$342	54.3¢	Lost
Will two people dissent the July Fed decision?	No	$13	50.6¢	Won
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$276	48.1¢	Won
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	$437	43.0¢	Won
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	$10.5k	34.4¢	Lost
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Yes	$16	75.0¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	$21.0k	84.0¢	Won
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	$123	45.0¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska governor race in 2026?	Yes	$484	89.0¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$7.2k	72.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	$81	41.0¢	Lost
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$2.9k	58.0¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$545	94.6¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$10.7k	89.9¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$421	42.0¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$4.6k	93.9¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$36	85.0¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	$31	50.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$1.6k	61.0¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	No	$3.5k	37.0¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	$4.3k	68.9¢	Lost
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	No	$50	25.0¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	85.0¢	Lost
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$6.4k	64.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$1.7k	39.0¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$60	47.0¢	Lost
Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$70	94.1¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$900	9.0¢	Lost
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	Yes	$118	5.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	Yes	$3.6k	7.2¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	$65	18.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	No	$13.9k	59.6¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	$8.4k	48.8¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	$7.3k	61.3¢	Won
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	No	$430	53.0¢	Lost
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals	Yes	$188	49.0¢	Won
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Under	$311	52.0¢	Won
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Under	$416	52.0¢	Won
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	$2.1k	51.0¢	Lost
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$9.1k	69.8¢	Won
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.4k	70.0¢	Won
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Under	$3.1k	52.0¢	Lost
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$390	48.0¢	Lost
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5	Under	$391	52.0¢	Won
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	$173	34.0¢	Lost
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$372	47.2¢	Lost

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Lost
No$94 @ 28.0¢
Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander ZverevWon
Alexander Zverev$3.1k @ 63.0¢
Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander ZverevLost
Taylor Fritz$1.1k @ 53.0¢
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5Won
Under$5.9k @ 46.9¢
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5Lost
Under$342 @ 54.3¢
Will two people dissent the July Fed decision?Won
No$13 @ 50.6¢
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to ScoreWon
Yes$276 @ 48.1¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseWon
Yes$437 @ 43.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseLost
Yes$10.5k @ 34.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Won
Yes$16 @ 75.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
Yes$21.0k @ 84.0¢
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Won
Yes$123 @ 45.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska governor race in 2026?Won
Yes$484 @ 89.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$7.2k @ 72.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Lost
No$81 @ 41.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$2.9k @ 58.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$545 @ 94.6¢
Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$10.7k @ 89.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$421 @ 42.0¢
Will the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$4.6k @ 93.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$36 @ 85.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Won
No$31 @ 50.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 61.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Won
No$3.5k @ 37.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?Lost
Yes$4.3k @ 68.9¢
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Won
No$50 @ 25.0¢
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 85.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$6.4k @ 64.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 39.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Lost
Yes$60 @ 47.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$70 @ 94.1¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?Lost
Yes$900 @ 9.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?Lost
Yes$118 @ 5.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?Lost
Yes$3.6k @ 7.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Won
No$65 @ 18.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?Won
No$13.9k @ 59.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Won
No$8.4k @ 48.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Won
No$7.3k @ 61.3¢
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?Lost
No$430 @ 53.0¢
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goalsWon
Yes$188 @ 49.0¢
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5Won
Under$311 @ 52.0¢
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5Won
Under$416 @ 52.0¢
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?Lost
Yes$2.1k @ 51.0¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
Yes$9.1k @ 69.8¢
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 70.0¢
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5Lost
Under$3.1k @ 52.0¢
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$390 @ 48.0¢
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5Won
Under$391 @ 52.0¢
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?Lost
Yes$173 @ 34.0¢
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$372 @ 47.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$102.6k	59.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$52.2k	36.3¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$51.6k	25.8¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$26.4k	10.9¢
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$18.3k	88.4¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$14.4k	76.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	Politics	No	$13.9k	59.6¢
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$13.7k	70.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$13.6k	86.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$11.8k	64.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10.7k	89.9¢
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$10.4k	4.1¢
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10.0k	91.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Politics	No	$8.4k	48.8¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$7.5k	4.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Politics	No	$7.3k	61.3¢
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Politics	Yes	$7.1k	81.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5.1k	51.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$5.0k	16.3¢
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$5.0k	50.5¢
Will the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4.6k	93.9¢
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	Politics	No	$4.4k	86.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3.6k	7.2¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Politics	No	$3.5k	71.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Politics	No	$3.3k	20.5¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$2.5k	2.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$2.2k	78.2¢
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1.7k	1.7¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 0%-3%?	Politics	Yes	$1.0k	27.0¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$985	26.0¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$102.6k @ 59.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$52.2k @ 36.3¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
No$51.6k @ 25.8¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$26.4k @ 10.9¢
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$18.3k @ 88.4¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics
No$14.4k @ 76.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?Politics
No$13.9k @ 59.6¢
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$13.7k @ 70.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$13.6k @ 86.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$11.8k @ 64.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$10.7k @ 89.9¢
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$10.4k @ 4.1¢
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$10.0k @ 91.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Politics
No$8.4k @ 48.8¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$7.5k @ 4.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Politics
No$7.3k @ 61.3¢
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Politics
Yes$7.1k @ 81.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$5.1k @ 51.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$5.0k @ 16.3¢
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$5.0k @ 50.5¢
Will the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$4.6k @ 93.9¢
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?Politics
No$4.4k @ 86.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?Politics
Yes$3.6k @ 7.2¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?Politics
No$3.5k @ 71.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Politics
No$3.3k @ 20.5¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$2.5k @ 2.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$2.2k @ 78.2¢
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1.7k @ 1.7¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 0%-3%?Politics
Yes$1.0k @ 27.0¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$985 @ 26.0¢