← Smart money
0xcf18…8a0d
SharpEdge
+19.9pp
ROI
+30%
Win rate
66% @ 46.1¢
Brier
0.215
Resolved
311
Avg size
$55
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 51% (23/45) | +31% | 45 |
| Politics | 50% (13/26) | +6% | 26 |
| Sports | 29% (2/7) | +16% | 7 |
| Geopolitics | 25% (1/4) | -76% | 4 |
| Crypto | 50% (2/4) | +98% | 4 |
- Other45 bets
- Hit rate
- 51% (23/45)
- ROI
- +31%
- Politics26 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (13/26)
- ROI
- +6%
- Sports7 bets
- Hit rate
- 29% (2/7)
- ROI
- +16%
- Geopolitics4 bets
- Hit rate
- 25% (1/4)
- ROI
- -76%
- Crypto4 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (2/4)
- ROI
- +98%
Track record
48% hit · 41/86- No$149 @ 59.0¢
- Yes$77 @ 40.0¢
- No$127 @ 81.0¢
- No$415 @ 37.3¢
- No$7 @ 86.0¢
- Yes$210 @ 17.0¢
- No$321 @ 99.0¢
- Yes$125 @ 11.4¢
- Yes$449 @ 10.0¢
- No$39 @ 96.5¢
- No$56 @ 45.0¢
- Yes$61 @ 50.0¢
- No$189 @ 34.0¢
- No$2.4k @ 64.8¢
- Yes$474 @ 35.1¢
- No$244 @ 93.0¢
- Yes$74 @ 8.1¢
- Yes$11 @ 90.0¢
- Yes$27 @ 3.4¢
- Yes$374 @ 34.0¢
- Yes$69 @ 5.6¢
- No$6 @ 6.0¢
- Yes$142 @ 91.0¢
- No$512 @ 45.2¢
- Yes$99 @ 61.9¢
- Yes$283 @ 10.3¢
- No$1.2k @ 57.8¢
- Yes$627 @ 29.0¢
- Yes$200 @ 86.7¢
- No$88 @ 17.3¢
- Yes$265 @ 24.1¢
- No$507 @ 83.9¢
- Yes$98 @ 16.1¢
- No$92 @ 58.0¢
- Yes$426 @ 28.5¢
- No$31 @ 83.6¢
- Yes$208 @ 25.0¢
- No$300 @ 78.0¢
- Yes$25 @ 16.0¢
- No$386 @ 52.8¢
- Yes$49 @ 23.0¢
- No$2.4k @ 73.5¢
- Yes$2.2k @ 41.9¢
- No$1.1k @ 49.0¢
- Yes$85 @ 10.2¢
- No$198 @ 35.0¢
- Yes$109 @ 13.0¢
- No$704 @ 50.9¢
- Yes$376 @ 13.9¢
- Yes$285 @ 33.2¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Politics | No | $5.0k | 78.9¢ |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Sports | No | $794 | 63.9¢ |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Politics | No | $606 | 84.0¢ |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Politics | Yes | $197 | 25.0¢ |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Politics | No | $157 | 83.1¢ |
| Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Politics | No | $136 | 99.0¢ |
| Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Politics | No | $135 | 97.3¢ |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | — | No | $98 | 88.0¢ |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Politics | Yes | $56 | 45.8¢ |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Politics | Yes | $42 | 75.0¢ |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $28 | 5.0¢ |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | Science | No | $12 | 91.5¢ |
- No$5.0k @ 78.9¢
- No$794 @ 63.9¢
- No$606 @ 84.0¢
- Yes$197 @ 25.0¢
- No$157 @ 83.1¢
- No$136 @ 99.0¢
- No$135 @ 97.3¢
- No$98 @ 88.0¢
- Yes$56 @ 45.8¢
- Yes$42 @ 75.0¢
- Yes$28 @ 5.0¢
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?ScienceNo$12 @ 91.5¢