0xcf18…8a0d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xcf181837087772b67f9021f8a512c2bbe02f8a0d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+19.6pp

ROI

+29%

Win rate

66% @ 46.5¢

Brier

0.213

Resolved

316

Avg size

$55

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	52% (16/31)	+29%	31
Politics	50% (9/18)	-1%	18
Crypto	50% (2/4)	+98%	4
Sports	100% (1/1)	+186%	1
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other31 bets
Hit rate
52% (16/31)
ROI
+29%
Politics18 bets
Hit rate
50% (9/18)
ROI
-1%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+98%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+186%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

51% hit · 28/55

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Hyperliquid reach $54 by December 31, 2026?	No	$4	53.0¢	Lost
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?	No	$507	83.9¢	Won
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?	Yes	$98	16.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$92	58.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$426	28.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$31	83.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$208	25.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$300	78.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$25	16.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$386	52.8¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$49	23.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$2.4k	73.5¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$2.2k	41.9¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$1.1k	49.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$85	10.2¢	Lost
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	No	$198	35.0¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	$109	13.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$704	50.9¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$376	13.9¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$285	33.2¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	$912	15.6¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$1.6k	71.1¢	Won
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	No	$37	82.5¢	Won
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	$46	6.9¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$33	5.9¢	Lost
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading?	No	$162	81.0¢	Won
Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading?	Yes	$12	2.2¢	Lost
Netanyahu out by March 31?	Yes	$26	1.0¢	Lost
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$56	21.0¢	Lost
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?	No	$689	88.0¢	Lost
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?	Yes	$77	10.8¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	Yes	$191	41.8¢	Won
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?	Yes	$1	9.6¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	No	$163	41.2¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$161	14.2¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$94	48.1¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$450	44.5¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$75	40.9¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	$16	42.7¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$1.4k	71.9¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	$88	23.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	Yes	$9	86.0¢	Won
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?	Yes	$8	33.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	$85	68.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$42	34.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$44	54.8¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	$47	7.0¢	Lost
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	$8	71.0¢	Won
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	$120	66.0¢	Won
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$278	86.7¢	Won

Will Hyperliquid reach $54 by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 53.0¢
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?Won
No$507 @ 83.9¢
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?Lost
Yes$98 @ 16.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$92 @ 58.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$426 @ 28.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$31 @ 83.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$208 @ 25.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$300 @ 78.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$25 @ 16.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$386 @ 52.8¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$49 @ 23.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$2.4k @ 73.5¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$2.2k @ 41.9¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1.1k @ 49.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$85 @ 10.2¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?Won
No$198 @ 35.0¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Lost
Yes$109 @ 13.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$704 @ 50.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
Yes$376 @ 13.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$285 @ 33.2¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Lost
No$912 @ 15.6¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 71.1¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Won
No$37 @ 82.5¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Lost
Yes$46 @ 6.9¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$33 @ 5.9¢
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading?Won
No$162 @ 81.0¢
Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading?Lost
Yes$12 @ 2.2¢
Netanyahu out by March 31?Lost
Yes$26 @ 1.0¢
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$56 @ 21.0¢
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?Lost
No$689 @ 88.0¢
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?Won
Yes$77 @ 10.8¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Won
Yes$191 @ 41.8¢
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?Lost
Yes$1 @ 9.6¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?Won
No$163 @ 41.2¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$161 @ 14.2¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$94 @ 48.1¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$450 @ 44.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$75 @ 40.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Lost
Yes$16 @ 42.7¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$1.4k @ 71.9¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Lost
Yes$88 @ 23.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?Won
Yes$9 @ 86.0¢
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?Lost
Yes$8 @ 33.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Lost
No$85 @ 68.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$42 @ 34.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$44 @ 54.8¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Lost
Yes$47 @ 7.0¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Won
No$8 @ 71.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Won
Yes$120 @ 66.0¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
Yes$278 @ 86.7¢

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