0xcd9d…b99e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xcd9d626387862010d26e5581e852a0662f56b99e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+10.4pp

ROI

+24%

Win rate

77% @ 66.6¢

Brier

0.168

Resolved

222

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	77% (36/47)	+19%	47
Politics	88% (23/26)	+40%	26
Geopolitics	61% (11/18)	-13%	18

Other47 bets
Hit rate
77% (36/47)
ROI
+19%
Politics26 bets
Hit rate
88% (23/26)
ROI
+40%
Geopolitics18 bets
Hit rate
61% (11/18)
ROI
-13%

Track record

77% hit · 70/91

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?	No	$1	47.0¢	Won
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?	No	$5	70.2¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by September 30?	No	$2	87.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?	Yes	$14	68.9¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	44.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	No	$7	80.0¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$2	53.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?	No	$9	89.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$10	63.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$10	53.8¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$28	81.0¢	Won
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	$11	77.5¢	Won
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	No	$5	87.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	$6	76.9¢	Won
Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	$29	84.3¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$3	86.1¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?	Yes	$3	69.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$15	74.0¢	Won
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?	No	$1	74.0¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$4	68.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	No	$22	79.2¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	Yes	$4	52.1¢	Lost
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	No	$12	79.8¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	No	$5	40.0¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?	No	$7	84.3¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$1	66.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$7	55.0¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	No	$1	88.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$1	80.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$12	64.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$8	25.6¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	Yes	$11	63.2¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$4	80.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$3	11.6¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?	No	$4	88.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$8	83.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$27	48.2¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	Yes	$8	64.7¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	$26	86.2¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	No	$2	64.0¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	No	$2	86.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$11	32.1¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?	No	$2	87.0¢	Won
Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026?	No	$6	64.9¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?	No	$3	62.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	Yes	$8	52.9¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$4	87.3¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	Yes	$3	50.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	Yes	$16	64.3¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	$4	75.0¢	Won

Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 47.0¢
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?Lost
No$5 @ 70.2¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?Won
No$2 @ 87.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?Won
Yes$14 @ 68.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 44.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Lost
No$7 @ 80.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 53.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?Won
No$9 @ 89.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 63.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 53.8¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$28 @ 81.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Won
No$11 @ 77.5¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Won
No$5 @ 87.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Won
Yes$6 @ 76.9¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
No$29 @ 84.3¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$3 @ 86.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Won
Yes$3 @ 69.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$15 @ 74.0¢
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 74.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$4 @ 68.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?Won
No$22 @ 79.2¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?Lost
Yes$4 @ 52.1¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?Won
No$12 @ 79.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?Lost
No$5 @ 40.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?Won
No$7 @ 84.3¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$1 @ 66.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$7 @ 55.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Won
No$1 @ 88.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$1 @ 80.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$12 @ 64.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$8 @ 25.6¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Won
Yes$11 @ 63.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 80.0¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 11.6¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?Won
No$4 @ 88.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$8 @ 83.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$27 @ 48.2¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Won
Yes$8 @ 64.7¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Won
No$26 @ 86.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Lost
No$2 @ 64.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?Won
No$2 @ 86.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$11 @ 32.1¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 87.0¢
Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026?Lost
No$6 @ 64.9¢
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?Lost
No$3 @ 62.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Won
Yes$8 @ 52.9¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$4 @ 87.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?Won
Yes$3 @ 50.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Won
Yes$16 @ 64.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?Won
Yes$4 @ 75.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$33	93.4¢
Nawrocki out by December 31?	Politics	No	$19	93.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$11	71.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$10	77.7¢
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$8	84.6¢
Tusk out by December 31?	Politics	No	$5	88.3¢
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$5	94.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$4	29.0¢
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$4	80.0¢
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2027?	Geopolitics	Yes	$2	55.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$2	54.0¢
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$2	94.8¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	59.0¢
Święczkowski reinstated as Constitutional Tribunal President by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$2	80.0¢

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$33 @ 93.4¢
Nawrocki out by December 31?Politics
No$19 @ 93.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$11 @ 71.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$10 @ 77.7¢
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$8 @ 84.6¢
Tusk out by December 31?Politics
No$5 @ 88.3¢
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$5 @ 94.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$4 @ 29.0¢
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$4 @ 80.0¢
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2027?Geopolitics
Yes$2 @ 55.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Politics
Yes$2 @ 54.0¢
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$2 @ 94.8¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 59.0¢
Święczkowski reinstated as Constitutional Tribunal President by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$2 @ 80.0¢