0xcb59…0a22

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xcb59ea1babf3b26ea50088057e427ab0ed8f0a22
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.0pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

54% @ 50.9¢

Brier

0.176

Resolved

4050

Avg size

$225

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	64% (171/266)	+3%	266
Politics	59% (69/117)	+12%	117
Sports	42% (11/26)	-45%	26
Tech	63% (12/19)	+7%	19
Geopolitics	53% (10/19)	-35%	19
Crypto	100% (2/2)	+166%	2
Economy	100% (1/1)	+54%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+13%	1

Other266 bets
Hit rate
64% (171/266)
ROI
+3%
Politics117 bets
Hit rate
59% (69/117)
ROI
+12%
Sports26 bets
Hit rate
42% (11/26)
ROI
-45%
Tech19 bets
Hit rate
63% (12/19)
ROI
+7%
Geopolitics19 bets
Hit rate
53% (10/19)
ROI
-35%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+166%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+54%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+13%

Track record

61% hit · 277/451

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$189	17.0¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	$656	93.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	$1.4k	68.0¢	Won
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$37	30.8¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	$42	21.0¢	Lost
Will Bad Bunny be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026?	No	$105	88.4¢	Won
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	$4.5k	68.6¢	Lost
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Yes	$5	40.0¢	Lost
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$4	57.8¢	Lost
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$2.1k	63.0¢	Lost
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$172	43.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	$10	18.6¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	$792	84.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	Yes	$33	10.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	$7.5k	99.7¢	Won
Will Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?	Yes	$353	97.6¢	Won
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?	No	$70	34.0¢	Lost
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?	Yes	$817	81.7¢	Won
Will Trump and JD Vance handshake last less than 2 seconds during the day of the 2026 State of the Union address?	Yes	$2	44.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$359	38.1¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	No	$310	37.9¢	Won
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?	Yes	$265	88.2¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	Yes	$132	6.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	Yes	$61	2.9¢	Lost
Will Bernie Sanders say "Authoritarian" or "Authoritarianism" in Michigan?	Yes	$40	89.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Gaza" during the 2026 State of the Union address?	Yes	$170	89.0¢	Won
Weed rescheduled by June 30?	No	$1.4k	62.3¢	Won
Will Trump say "Elizabeth Warren" or "Pocahontas" during the State of the Union address?	No	$14	82.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during Address to the Nation?	Yes	$380	76.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$830	35.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$26.0k	29.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	No	$3	32.0¢	Lost
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?	Yes	$755	75.5¢	Won
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	No	$884	62.6¢	Won
Will Trump and JD Vance handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of the 2026 State of the Union address?	No	$38	83.9¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	Yes	$1.4k	85.3¢	Won
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$586	73.3¢	Won
Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	$366	34.1¢	Won
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?	Yes	$252	84.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 6?	No	$0	89.0¢	Won
Will anyone be kicked out of Trump's State of the Union address?	Yes	$4	43.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?	Yes	$400	80.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$2.0k	56.1¢	Won
Will Brett M. Kavanaugh attend the 2026 State of the Union address?	Yes	$67	87.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$246	82.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$2.8k	15.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$2.5k	15.5¢	Lost
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?	No	$380	22.7¢	Lost
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?	No	$3.9k	87.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$5.0k	62.0¢	Won

NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$189 @ 17.0¢
Iran leadership change by October 31?Won
No$656 @ 93.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Won
No$1.4k @ 68.0¢
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
Yes$37 @ 30.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Lost
No$42 @ 21.0¢
Will Bad Bunny be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026?Won
No$105 @ 88.4¢
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Lost
No$4.5k @ 68.6¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?Lost
Yes$5 @ 40.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$4 @ 57.8¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
No$2.1k @ 63.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
Yes$172 @ 43.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Lost
No$10 @ 18.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Won
No$792 @ 84.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$33 @ 10.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Won
No$7.5k @ 99.7¢
Will Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?Won
Yes$353 @ 97.6¢
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?Lost
No$70 @ 34.0¢
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?Won
Yes$817 @ 81.7¢
Will Trump and JD Vance handshake last less than 2 seconds during the day of the 2026 State of the Union address?Won
Yes$2 @ 44.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$359 @ 38.1¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?Won
No$310 @ 37.9¢
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?Won
Yes$265 @ 88.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Lost
Yes$132 @ 6.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$61 @ 2.9¢
Will Bernie Sanders say "Authoritarian" or "Authoritarianism" in Michigan?Won
Yes$40 @ 89.0¢
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Gaza" during the 2026 State of the Union address?Won
Yes$170 @ 89.0¢
Weed rescheduled by June 30?Won
No$1.4k @ 62.3¢
Will Trump say "Elizabeth Warren" or "Pocahontas" during the State of the Union address?Won
No$14 @ 82.0¢
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during Address to the Nation?Won
Yes$380 @ 76.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$830 @ 35.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$26.0k @ 29.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Lost
No$3 @ 32.0¢
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?Won
Yes$755 @ 75.5¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?Won
No$884 @ 62.6¢
Will Trump and JD Vance handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of the 2026 State of the Union address?Won
No$38 @ 83.9¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 85.3¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$586 @ 73.3¢
Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?Won
Yes$366 @ 34.1¢
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?Won
Yes$252 @ 84.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 6?Won
No$0 @ 89.0¢
Will anyone be kicked out of Trump's State of the Union address?Won
Yes$4 @ 43.0¢
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?Won
Yes$400 @ 80.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 56.1¢
Will Brett M. Kavanaugh attend the 2026 State of the Union address?Won
Yes$67 @ 87.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$246 @ 82.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.8k @ 15.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.5k @ 15.5¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?Lost
No$380 @ 22.7¢
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?Won
No$3.9k @ 87.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$5.0k @ 62.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$3.8k	45.2¢
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Politics	No	$1.5k	76.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.3k	20.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	No	$562	55.2¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$500	50.0¢
Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Sports	Yes	$381	2.6¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$152	29.0¢
Will there be three UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Politics	Yes	$150	15.0¢
Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$15	1.5¢
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$11	80.0¢
Blue wave in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10	84.0¢
Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$4	0.8¢
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$4	0.8¢
Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$4	0.8¢
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$4	0.8¢
Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$4	0.8¢
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$4	0.8¢

Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$3.8k @ 45.2¢
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
No$1.5k @ 76.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.3k @ 20.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
No$562 @ 55.2¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$500 @ 50.0¢
Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals?Sports
Yes$381 @ 2.6¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$152 @ 29.0¢
Will there be three UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?Politics
Yes$150 @ 15.0¢
Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$15 @ 1.5¢
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$11 @ 80.0¢
Blue wave in 2026?Politics
Yes$10 @ 84.0¢
Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$4 @ 0.8¢
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$4 @ 0.8¢
Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$4 @ 0.8¢
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$4 @ 0.8¢
Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$4 @ 0.8¢
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$4 @ 0.8¢