0xcb59…0a22

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xcb59ea1babf3b26ea50088057e427ab0ed8f0a22
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+14.7pp

ROI

+34%

Win rate

63% @ 48.4¢

Brier

0.203

Resolved

295

Avg size

$424

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	62% (36/58)	+17%	58
Other	71% (29/41)	-6%	41
Tech	61% (11/18)	+6%	18
Sports	63% (5/8)	-47%	8
Geopolitics	50% (4/8)	-63%	8
Crypto	100% (2/2)	+167%	2
Economy	100% (1/1)	+54%	1

Politics58 bets
Hit rate
62% (36/58)
ROI
+17%
Other41 bets
Hit rate
71% (29/41)
ROI
-6%
Tech18 bets
Hit rate
61% (11/18)
ROI
+6%
Sports8 bets
Hit rate
63% (5/8)
ROI
-47%
Geopolitics8 bets
Hit rate
50% (4/8)
ROI
-63%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+167%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+54%

Track record

65% hit · 88/136

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$224	28.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$11.8k	59.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$117	0.4¢	Lost
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	$5.5k	98.9¢	Won
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	Yes	$467	70.0¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$24	80.6¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	Yes	$315	63.0¢	Won
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$38	62.0¢	Won
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$25	12.6¢	Lost
Will Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	$88	94.6¢	Won
Iran leadership change by August 31?	No	$4.3k	97.7¢	Won
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?	No	$923	96.2¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$830	55.3¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$15	38.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$28	28.0¢	Won
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	No	$345	69.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?	Yes	$787	70.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?	No	$63	62.9¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?	Yes	$31	6.0¢	Lost
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	$287	97.8¢	Won
Will Selena Gomez attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	$87	84.5¢	Won
Will Blake Lively attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	$8	76.0¢	Won
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?	No	$1.2k	27.3¢	Lost
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?	Yes	$760	76.0¢	Won
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$69	98.1¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$3.1k	88.0¢	Won
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$66	3.3¢	Lost
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$467	93.3¢	Won
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 17?	Yes	$1.8k	91.0¢	Won
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 31?	Yes	$2.8k	94.1¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$241	81.7¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?	No	$33	31.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.5k	71.3¢	Lost
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?	Yes	$5	81.0¢	Won
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami?	No	$8.9k	99.9¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$558	69.7¢	Lost
UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)	Benoît Saint Denis	$162	54.0¢	Lost
Will Belgium vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Yes	$100	99.9¢	Won
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?	No	$100	99.9¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?	No	$167	47.9¢	Won
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$258	98.0¢	Won
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?	No	$59	6.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$266	77.0¢	Won
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$152	38.0¢	Won
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week?	Yes	$3.4k	97.9¢	Won
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	No	$999	71.0¢	Lost
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$339	37.7¢	Won
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	$303	80.8¢	Won
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	$3.3k	99.2¢	Won
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026	Yes	$9	6.2¢	Lost

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$224 @ 28.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Won
No$11.8k @ 59.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$117 @ 0.4¢
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?Won
No$5.5k @ 98.9¢
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Won
Yes$467 @ 70.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$24 @ 80.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Won
Yes$315 @ 63.0¢
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$38 @ 62.0¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$25 @ 12.6¢
Will Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Won
Yes$88 @ 94.6¢
Iran leadership change by August 31?Won
No$4.3k @ 97.7¢
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?Won
No$923 @ 96.2¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$830 @ 55.3¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$15 @ 38.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$28 @ 28.0¢
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Won
No$345 @ 69.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?Won
Yes$787 @ 70.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?Won
No$63 @ 62.9¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?Lost
Yes$31 @ 6.0¢
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Won
Yes$287 @ 97.8¢
Will Selena Gomez attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Won
Yes$87 @ 84.5¢
Will Blake Lively attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Won
No$8 @ 76.0¢
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?Lost
No$1.2k @ 27.3¢
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?Won
Yes$760 @ 76.0¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$69 @ 98.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$3.1k @ 88.0¢
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$66 @ 3.3¢
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$467 @ 93.3¢
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 17?Won
Yes$1.8k @ 91.0¢
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 31?Won
Yes$2.8k @ 94.1¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$241 @ 81.7¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$33 @ 31.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 71.3¢
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?Won
Yes$5 @ 81.0¢
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami?Won
No$8.9k @ 99.9¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$558 @ 69.7¢
UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)Lost
Benoît Saint Denis$162 @ 54.0¢
Will Belgium vs. Senegal end in a draw?Won
Yes$100 @ 99.9¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?Won
No$100 @ 99.9¢
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?Won
No$167 @ 47.9¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$258 @ 98.0¢
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?Lost
No$59 @ 6.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$266 @ 77.0¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$152 @ 38.0¢
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week?Won
Yes$3.4k @ 97.9¢
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
No$999 @ 71.0¢
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?Won
Yes$339 @ 37.7¢
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Won
Yes$303 @ 80.8¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Won
No$3.3k @ 99.2¢
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026Lost
Yes$9 @ 6.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5.7k	84.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$3.9k	82.9¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?	Politics	No	$3.1k	91.3¢
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Politics	No	$1.5k	76.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	No	$1.4k	70.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.3k	20.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$981	79.0¢
Iran leadership change by October 31?	Politics	No	$656	93.0¢
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?	Politics	Yes	$611	79.4¢
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	—	Yes	$306	46.0¢
Will there be three UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	—	Yes	$150	15.0¢

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$5.7k @ 84.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$3.9k @ 82.9¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?Politics
No$3.1k @ 91.3¢
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
No$1.5k @ 76.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
No$1.4k @ 70.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.3k @ 20.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$981 @ 79.0¢
Iran leadership change by October 31?Politics
No$656 @ 93.0¢
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?Politics
Yes$611 @ 79.4¢
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?—
Yes$306 @ 46.0¢
Will there be three UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?—
Yes$150 @ 15.0¢