0xcb59…0a22

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xcb59ea1babf3b26ea50088057e427ab0ed8f0a22
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+17.6pp

ROI

+35%

Win rate

67% @ 49.1¢

Brier

0.203

Resolved

331

Avg size

$394

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	54% (14/26)	+14%	26
Other	85% (11/13)	+40%	13
Tech	63% (5/8)	+37%	8
Crypto	100% (2/2)	+167%	2
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics26 bets
Hit rate
54% (14/26)
ROI
+14%
Other13 bets
Hit rate
85% (11/13)
ROI
+40%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
63% (5/8)
ROI
+37%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+167%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

64% hit · 32/50

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$830	35.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$13.2k	26.8¢	Lost
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$586	73.3¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$14.7k	37.3¢	Won
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.7k	71.3¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$1.4k	19.9¢	Lost
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	$1.9k	30.7¢	Lost
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$31.9k	80.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$454	36.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$25.7k	52.1¢	Won
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	$523	87.2¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$3.8k	69.8¢	Lost
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	$5.3k	48.1¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$15.4k	64.3¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	$167	1.8¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	$648	64.8¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	$15	87.2¢	Won
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	No	$4.4k	59.0¢	Won
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	No	$48	16.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	$425	89.6¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$145	72.1¢	Won
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	$1.4k	9.2¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	$4.7k	87.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$848	24.6¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$106	87.3¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	Yes	$480	16.0¢	Lost
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	No	$714	87.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	$365	3.4¢	Lost
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?	No	$655	99.5¢	Won
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?	Yes	$177	99.4¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 6?	No	$0	89.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$660	66.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$256	11.0¢	Lost
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	Yes	$483	87.0¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	$1.8k	36.0¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	$3.3k	44.3¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	$716	62.2¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	$16	2.3¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	No	$85	17.0¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	$2.3k	62.8¢	Won
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	$118	43.0¢	Won
Will Bernie Sanders say "Authoritarian" or "Authoritarianism" in Michigan?	Yes	$40	89.0¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$10.7k	85.2¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$6.7k	41.7¢	Lost
Will Bernie Sanders say "Trump" 10+ times in Michigan?	No	$121	60.0¢	Won
Will Bernie Sanders say "Tuition" in Michigan?	No	$10	72.0¢	Won
Will Bernie Sanders say "Affordable" or "Affordability" in Michigan?	Yes	$10	83.0¢	Won
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$19.7k	65.1¢	Won
Will Bernie Sanders say "ICE" 3+ times in Michigan?	No	$91	86.9¢	Won
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?	No	$3.9k	87.0¢	Won

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$830 @ 35.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$13.2k @ 26.8¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$586 @ 73.3¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$14.7k @ 37.3¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 71.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 19.9¢
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Lost
No$1.9k @ 30.7¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$31.9k @ 80.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$454 @ 36.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$25.7k @ 52.1¢
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Won
Yes$523 @ 87.2¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3.8k @ 69.8¢
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Lost
Yes$5.3k @ 48.1¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$15.4k @ 64.3¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Lost
No$167 @ 1.8¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Won
Yes$648 @ 64.8¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?Won
No$15 @ 87.2¢
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Won
No$4.4k @ 59.0¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?Lost
No$48 @ 16.0¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?Won
No$425 @ 89.6¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$145 @ 72.1¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 9.2¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Won
No$4.7k @ 87.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$848 @ 24.6¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$106 @ 87.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$480 @ 16.0¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Won
No$714 @ 87.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?Lost
Yes$365 @ 3.4¢
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?Won
No$655 @ 99.5¢
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?Won
Yes$177 @ 99.4¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 6?Won
No$0 @ 89.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$660 @ 66.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$256 @ 11.0¢
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?Won
Yes$483 @ 87.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Lost
No$1.8k @ 36.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Won
No$3.3k @ 44.3¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Lost
Yes$716 @ 62.2¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?Lost
Yes$16 @ 2.3¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?Lost
No$85 @ 17.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?Won
No$2.3k @ 62.8¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Won
Yes$118 @ 43.0¢
Will Bernie Sanders say "Authoritarian" or "Authoritarianism" in Michigan?Won
Yes$40 @ 89.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$10.7k @ 85.2¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$6.7k @ 41.7¢
Will Bernie Sanders say "Trump" 10+ times in Michigan?Won
No$121 @ 60.0¢
Will Bernie Sanders say "Tuition" in Michigan?Won
No$10 @ 72.0¢
Will Bernie Sanders say "Affordable" or "Affordability" in Michigan?Won
Yes$10 @ 83.0¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
Yes$19.7k @ 65.1¢
Will Bernie Sanders say "ICE" 3+ times in Michigan?Won
No$91 @ 86.9¢
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?Won
No$3.9k @ 87.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$7.6k	79.2¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5.7k	84.1¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?	Politics	No	$2.0k	91.5¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$1.5k	71.3¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	No	$1.4k	70.0¢
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?	Politics	Yes	$1.3k	79.4¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$981	79.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?	—	No	$455	32.8¢
Will there be three UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	—	Yes	$150	15.0¢
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?	Politics	No	$70	34.0¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$7.6k @ 79.2¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$5.7k @ 84.1¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?Politics
No$2.0k @ 91.5¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?—
Yes$1.5k @ 71.3¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
No$1.4k @ 70.0¢
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?Politics
Yes$1.3k @ 79.4¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$981 @ 79.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?—
No$455 @ 32.8¢
Will there be three UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?—
Yes$150 @ 15.0¢
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?Politics
No$70 @ 34.0¢