0xca43…9d5c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xca43c387f42e4762f03e382cb4b922dcf0bb9d5c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.7pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

59% @ 55.0¢

Brier

0.191

Resolved

1355

Avg size

$40

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	48% (169/350)	-2%	350
Sports	63% (12/19)	-0%	19
Politics	80% (8/10)	-13%	10
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+467%	1

Other350 bets
Hit rate
48% (169/350)
ROI
-2%
Sports19 bets
Hit rate
63% (12/19)
ROI
-0%
Politics10 bets
Hit rate
80% (8/10)
ROI
-13%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+467%

Track record

50% hit · 190/383

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Estoril Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Jaime Faria	Botic van de Zandschulp	$880	44.0¢	Lost
Will GAIS win on 2026-07-26?	Yes	$544	70.6¢	Lost
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)	Miami Marlins	$292	73.0¢	Lost
Will England win on 2026-07-18?	No	$394	76.0¢	Lost
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-07-16?	Yes	$205	41.0¢	Lost
FC Juárez vs. Club Puebla: O/U 2.5	Over	$33	56.0¢	Lost
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-07-22?	Yes	$318	64.8¢	Lost
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5	Over	$57	57.0¢	Lost
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-31?	No	$365	45.6¢	Lost
Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Pistons	$189	63.0¢	Lost
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	$226	50.0¢	Lost
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16?	No	$270	45.0¢	Lost
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-31?	Yes	$185	50.0¢	Lost
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$0	51.0¢	Won
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	$186	73.0¢	Won
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$1.1k	38.3¢	Lost
Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?	Yes	$23	8.0¢	Lost
Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)	1. FC Köln	$9	87.0¢	Won
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-03-16?	Yes	$341	53.9¢	Lost
Wild vs. Stars	Stars	$110	55.0¢	Won
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	Yes	$85	84.5¢	Won
Golden Knights vs. Red Wings	Red Wings	$40	40.0¢	Lost
Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)	Raptors	$14	50.0¢	Lost
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-03-11?	No	$39	56.0¢	Lost
Maple Leafs vs. Devils	Maple Leafs	$46	46.0¢	Lost
Will the Rachida Dati List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election?	No	$18	84.0¢	Won
UFC Fight Night: Brad Tavares vs. Eryk Anders (Middleweight, Prelims)	Brad Tavares	$23	45.0¢	Lost
Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)	Bologna FC 1909	$78	71.0¢	Won
FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5	Over	$194	49.0¢	Won
PSV vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 4.5	Under	$60	69.1¢	Lost
Chelsea FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5	Over	$23	45.0¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims)	Mason Jones	$47	54.0¢	Won
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-21?	No	$160	38.0¢	Won
Hurricanes vs. Canucks	Canucks	$35	27.0¢	Lost
Spread: Spurs (-6.5)	Clippers	$86	43.0¢	Won
Spread: Spurs (-2.5)	Celtics	$8	47.0¢	Lost
Will Burgos CF win on 2026-05-31?	Yes	$288	63.8¢	Won
Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?	No	$115	57.5¢	Lost
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score	No	$342	52.0¢	Lost
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-10?	No	$573	63.0¢	Won
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	$370	61.0¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$57	58.0¢	Won
76ers vs. Knicks	76ers	$286	28.0¢	Lost
Spurs vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5	Under	$44	51.0¢	Won
Canadiens vs. Ducks	Ducks	$50	50.0¢	Won
Pelicans vs. Kings	Kings	$56	37.0¢	Lost
Spurs vs. Clippers: O/U 233.5	Over	$17	51.0¢	Won
Suns vs. Celtics: O/U 215.5	Under	$105	48.1¢	Lost
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$25	48.5¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-03-26?	No	$104	58.0¢	Lost

Estoril Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Jaime FariaLost
Botic van de Zandschulp$880 @ 44.0¢
Will GAIS win on 2026-07-26?Lost
Yes$544 @ 70.6¢
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Lost
Miami Marlins$292 @ 73.0¢
Will England win on 2026-07-18?Lost
No$394 @ 76.0¢
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-07-16?Lost
Yes$205 @ 41.0¢
FC Juárez vs. Club Puebla: O/U 2.5Lost
Over$33 @ 56.0¢
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-07-22?Lost
Yes$318 @ 64.8¢
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5Lost
Over$57 @ 57.0¢
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-31?Lost
No$365 @ 45.6¢
Cavaliers vs. PistonsLost
Pistons$189 @ 63.0¢
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsLost
Kansas City Royals$226 @ 50.0¢
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16?Lost
No$270 @ 45.0¢
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-31?Lost
Yes$185 @ 50.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
Yes$0 @ 51.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
No$186 @ 73.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 38.3¢
Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?Lost
Yes$23 @ 8.0¢
Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)Won
1. FC Köln$9 @ 87.0¢
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-03-16?Lost
Yes$341 @ 53.9¢
Wild vs. StarsWon
Stars$110 @ 55.0¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Won
Yes$85 @ 84.5¢
Golden Knights vs. Red WingsLost
Red Wings$40 @ 40.0¢
Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Lost
Raptors$14 @ 50.0¢
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-03-11?Lost
No$39 @ 56.0¢
Maple Leafs vs. DevilsLost
Maple Leafs$46 @ 46.0¢
Will the Rachida Dati List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election?Won
No$18 @ 84.0¢
UFC Fight Night: Brad Tavares vs. Eryk Anders (Middleweight, Prelims)Lost
Brad Tavares$23 @ 45.0¢
Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)Won
Bologna FC 1909$78 @ 71.0¢
FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5Won
Over$194 @ 49.0¢
PSV vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 4.5Lost
Under$60 @ 69.1¢
Chelsea FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5Lost
Over$23 @ 45.0¢
UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims)Won
Mason Jones$47 @ 54.0¢
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-21?Won
No$160 @ 38.0¢
Hurricanes vs. CanucksLost
Canucks$35 @ 27.0¢
Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Won
Clippers$86 @ 43.0¢
Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Lost
Celtics$8 @ 47.0¢
Will Burgos CF win on 2026-05-31?Won
Yes$288 @ 63.8¢
Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?Lost
No$115 @ 57.5¢
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to ScoreLost
No$342 @ 52.0¢
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-10?Won
No$573 @ 63.0¢
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle MarinersWon
Seattle Mariners$370 @ 61.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$57 @ 58.0¢
76ers vs. KnicksLost
76ers$286 @ 28.0¢
Spurs vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5Won
Under$44 @ 51.0¢
Canadiens vs. DucksWon
Ducks$50 @ 50.0¢
Pelicans vs. KingsLost
Kings$56 @ 37.0¢
Spurs vs. Clippers: O/U 233.5Won
Over$17 @ 51.0¢
Suns vs. Celtics: O/U 215.5Lost
Under$105 @ 48.1¢
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
No$25 @ 48.5¢
Will France win on 2026-03-26?Lost
No$104 @ 58.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Estoril Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Jaime Faria	—	Botic van de Zandschulp	$880	44.0¢
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-07-17?	—	No	$880	55.0¢
Will GAIS win on 2026-07-26?	—	Yes	$544	70.6¢
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17?	—	No	$517	66.0¢
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-13?	—	No	$504	54.0¢
Will England win on 2026-07-18?	—	No	$394	76.0¢
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-31?	Sports	No	$365	45.6¢
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score	—	No	$337	52.0¢
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-07-22?	—	Yes	$318	64.8¢
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-09?	—	No	$300	60.0¢
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)	—	Miami Marlins	$292	73.0¢
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16?	—	No	$270	45.0¢
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals	—	Kansas City Royals	$226	50.0¢
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-05-09?	—	Yes	$211	46.0¢
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?	—	Yes	$211	61.0¢
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-07-16?	—	Yes	$205	41.0¢
Cavaliers vs. Pistons	—	Pistons	$189	63.0¢
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-31?	Sports	Yes	$185	50.0¢
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays	—	Baltimore Orioles	$179	42.0¢
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance	—	Colombia	$167	61.0¢
Will Torino FC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw?	—	Yes	$135	30.0¢
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners	—	Seattle Mariners	$119	59.0¢
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Sports	Yes	$116	58.0¢
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Geopolitics	Yes	$102	4.9¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres	—	Los Angeles Dodgers	$99	57.0¢
Will France win on 2026-09-25?	Sports	No	$99	27.0¢
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-08-25?	—	No	$77	63.0¢
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5	—	Under	$62	21.0¢
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Sports	No	$57	47.0¢
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5	—	Over	$57	57.0¢

Estoril Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Jaime Faria—
Botic van de Zandschulp$880 @ 44.0¢
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-07-17?—
No$880 @ 55.0¢
Will GAIS win on 2026-07-26?—
Yes$544 @ 70.6¢
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17?—
No$517 @ 66.0¢
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-13?—
No$504 @ 54.0¢
Will England win on 2026-07-18?—
No$394 @ 76.0¢
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-31?Sports
No$365 @ 45.6¢
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score—
No$337 @ 52.0¢
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-07-22?—
Yes$318 @ 64.8¢
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-09?—
No$300 @ 60.0¢
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)—
Miami Marlins$292 @ 73.0¢
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16?—
No$270 @ 45.0¢
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals—
Kansas City Royals$226 @ 50.0¢
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-05-09?—
Yes$211 @ 46.0¢
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?—
Yes$211 @ 61.0¢
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-07-16?—
Yes$205 @ 41.0¢
Cavaliers vs. Pistons—
Pistons$189 @ 63.0¢
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-31?Sports
Yes$185 @ 50.0¢
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays—
Baltimore Orioles$179 @ 42.0¢
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance—
Colombia$167 @ 61.0¢
Will Torino FC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw?—
Yes$135 @ 30.0¢
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners—
Seattle Mariners$119 @ 59.0¢
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?Sports
Yes$116 @ 58.0¢
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Geopolitics
Yes$102 @ 4.9¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres—
Los Angeles Dodgers$99 @ 57.0¢
Will France win on 2026-09-25?Sports
No$99 @ 27.0¢
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-08-25?—
No$77 @ 63.0¢
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5—
Under$62 @ 21.0¢
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?Sports
No$57 @ 47.0¢
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5—
Over$57 @ 57.0¢