0xca16…f878

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xca165e655b0506ee83678157ea12bf62a450f878
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.7pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

38% @ 34.1¢

Brier

0.124

Resolved

3739

Avg size

$19

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	51% (194/379)	+7%	379
Politics	44% (21/48)	+1%	48
Sports	31% (5/16)	-61%	16
Geopolitics	60% (6/10)	+132%	10
Tech	75% (3/4)	-11%	4
Culture	50% (1/2)	-51%	2
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+427%	1

Other379 bets
Hit rate
51% (194/379)
ROI
+7%
Politics48 bets
Hit rate
44% (21/48)
ROI
+1%
Sports16 bets
Hit rate
31% (5/16)
ROI
-61%
Geopolitics10 bets
Hit rate
60% (6/10)
ROI
+132%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
-11%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-51%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+427%

Track record

50% hit · 231/460

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 24?	Yes	$5	4.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 March 9-15?	Yes	$124	78.8¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$328	45.1¢	Won
Kinetiq FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	$45	51.1¢	Won
Kinetiq FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	$5	1.3¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$461	76.8¢	Lost
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	Yes	$171	85.3¢	Won
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	No	$31	62.3¢	Lost
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?	No	$29	28.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Invasion" at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?	Yes	$31	68.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Pete" or "Hegseth" at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?	Yes	$21	81.0¢	Lost
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?	Yes	$55	32.2¢	Won
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?	No	$50	66.4¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$239	21.7¢	Won
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19?	Yes	$19	47.0¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 18, 2026?	Yes	$33	41.8¢	Lost
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?	Yes	$23	6.3¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$281	86.5¢	Won
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $680b and $690b on March 31?	Yes	$24	7.1¢	Lost
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?	No	$18	18.0¢	Lost
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?	Yes	$46	50.0¢	Won
Will Powell say "Percent" 25+ times during December press conference?	Yes	$18	70.0¢	Won
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 13, 2026?	Yes	$6	2.5¢	Lost
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30?	No	$89	89.0¢	Won
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	$62	31.3¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on March 31?	Yes	$16	9.3¢	Lost
Will there be between 18 and 21 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?	Yes	$5	2.3¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 18?	Yes	$13	25.0¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?	Yes	$107	62.5¢	Won
Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in February?	Yes	$15	59.4¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$128	16.0¢	Won
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets	Lakers	$57	57.0¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$336	83.9¢	Won
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?	No	$201	70.4¢	Lost
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?	Yes	$153	89.5¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?	No	$151	75.5¢	Won
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $690b and $700b on March 31?	Yes	$5	4.5¢	Lost
Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game?	Yes	$112	32.7¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$513	85.4¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$287	41.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$327	21.8¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on March 31?	Yes	$20	8.6¢	Won
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 27?	Yes	$10	18.0¢	Lost
Over $140M committed to the Ranger public sale?	No	$212	84.8¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on February 23?	No	$5	4.9¢	Lost
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during December press conference?	Yes	$11	53.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "China" during Bill Signing on December 12?	No	$45	52.4¢	Won
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 10, 2026?	Yes	$24	12.0¢	Lost
Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	Yes	$1.4k	84.7¢	Won
Will Donald Trump's tie be another color?	No	$37	24.3¢	Won

US x Venezuela military engagement by November 24?Lost
Yes$5 @ 4.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 March 9-15?Won
Yes$124 @ 78.8¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$328 @ 45.1¢
Kinetiq FDV above $200M one day after launch?Won
No$45 @ 51.1¢
Kinetiq FDV above $200M one day after launch?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.3¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$461 @ 76.8¢
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?Won
Yes$171 @ 85.3¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Lost
No$31 @ 62.3¢
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?Lost
No$29 @ 28.5¢
Will Trump say "Invasion" at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?Lost
Yes$31 @ 68.0¢
Will Trump say "Pete" or "Hegseth" at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?Lost
Yes$21 @ 81.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?Won
Yes$55 @ 32.2¢
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?Won
No$50 @ 66.4¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$239 @ 21.7¢
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19?Lost
Yes$19 @ 47.0¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 18, 2026?Lost
Yes$33 @ 41.8¢
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?Lost
Yes$23 @ 6.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$281 @ 86.5¢
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $680b and $690b on March 31?Lost
Yes$24 @ 7.1¢
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?Lost
No$18 @ 18.0¢
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?Won
Yes$46 @ 50.0¢
Will Powell say "Percent" 25+ times during December press conference?Won
Yes$18 @ 70.0¢
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 2.5¢
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30?Won
No$89 @ 89.0¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Lost
Yes$62 @ 31.3¢
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on March 31?Lost
Yes$16 @ 9.3¢
Will there be between 18 and 21 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.3¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 18?Lost
Yes$13 @ 25.0¢
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?Won
Yes$107 @ 62.5¢
Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in February?Won
Yes$15 @ 59.4¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$128 @ 16.0¢
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets Won
Lakers$57 @ 57.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$336 @ 83.9¢
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?Lost
No$201 @ 70.4¢
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?Won
Yes$153 @ 89.5¢
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?Won
No$151 @ 75.5¢
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $690b and $700b on March 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 4.5¢
Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game? Lost
Yes$112 @ 32.7¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$513 @ 85.4¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$287 @ 41.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$327 @ 21.8¢
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on March 31?Won
Yes$20 @ 8.6¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 27?Lost
Yes$10 @ 18.0¢
Over $140M committed to the Ranger public sale?Won
No$212 @ 84.8¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on February 23?Lost
No$5 @ 4.9¢
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during December press conference?Won
Yes$11 @ 53.0¢
Will Trump say "China" during Bill Signing on December 12?Won
No$45 @ 52.4¢
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$24 @ 12.0¢
Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 84.7¢
Will Donald Trump's tie be another color?Won
No$37 @ 24.3¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?	Sports	No	$851	68.3¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Politics	No	$234	78.0¢
Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.5M Iranian rials on December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$136	68.2¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?	Politics	No	$134	67.0¢
Trump renames AI by December 31?	Politics	No	$101	40.4¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$83	20.7¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?	Politics	No	$70	46.6¢
Will Tiger Woods play in a PGA Tournament in 2026?	Sports	No	$25	70.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$21	2.1¢

Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? Sports
No$851 @ 68.3¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Politics
No$234 @ 78.0¢
Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.5M Iranian rials on December 31?Geopolitics
No$136 @ 68.2¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?Politics
No$134 @ 67.0¢
Trump renames AI by December 31?Politics
No$101 @ 40.4¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
Yes$83 @ 20.7¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?Politics
No$70 @ 46.6¢
Will Tiger Woods play in a PGA Tournament in 2026?Sports
No$25 @ 70.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
Yes$21 @ 2.1¢