0xca16…f878

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xca165e655b0506ee83678157ea12bf62a450f878
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+19.9pp

ROI

+61%

Win rate

58% @ 37.9¢

Brier

0.229

Resolved

459

Avg size

$29

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (19/38)	+61%	38
Politics	44% (4/9)	+38%	9
Sports	50% (3/6)	-17%	6
Tech	100% (1/1)	+12%	1
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+427%	1

Other38 bets
Hit rate
50% (19/38)
ROI
+61%
Politics9 bets
Hit rate
44% (4/9)
ROI
+38%
Sports6 bets
Hit rate
50% (3/6)
ROI
-17%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+12%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+427%

Track record

50% hit · 28/56

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$328	45.1¢	Won
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	Yes	$171	85.3¢	Won
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30?	No	$89	89.0¢	Won
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	$62	31.3¢	Lost
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets	Lakers	$57	57.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$287	41.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$327	21.8¢	Lost
Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	Yes	$1.4k	84.7¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$1.4k	72.1¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$84	23.9¢	Lost
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 PGA Championship?	Yes	$12	1.7¢	Lost
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$15	3.0¢	Lost
Will there be exactly 2 major space weather events this week?	Yes	$3	1.2¢	Won
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$152	1.9¢	Lost
Will Steve Witkoff attend Trump’s Xi summit?	No	$83	20.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$427	19.0¢	Won
Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking be the top AI model on April 24, 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	$203	58.0¢	Won
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	$175	34.4¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$358	77.9¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Yes	$833	35.3¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$300	82.3¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	$24	23.7¢	Lost
Will there be fewer than 2 major space weather events this week?	Yes	$99	10.3¢	Lost
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	$21	69.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Where is" 3+ times during NCAA National Champions remarks on April 21?	Yes	$77	9.4¢	Lost
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 Truist Championship?	Yes	$18	17.4¢	Won
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$1.2k	76.7¢	Won
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	$39	12.8¢	Lost
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$26	0.9¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	No	$393	87.4¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	No	$390	60.0¢	Won
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?	No	$62	46.9¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	No	$305	76.1¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	$104	17.1¢	Lost
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	No	$24	48.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	No	$949	73.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 8?	Yes	$46	57.5¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$559	53.2¢	Won
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Street" this week?	Yes	$14	7.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	No	$20	10.0¢	Lost
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship?	Yes	$10	4.0¢	Lost
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$35	17.0¢	Lost
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	No	$84	41.5¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	$262	65.6¢	Lost
Will Jared Kushner attend Trump’s Xi summit?	No	$35	17.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	Yes	$87	24.8¢	Lost
Will Trump post "POTUS" this week on Truth Social?	No	$250	56.8¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	$61	31.9¢	Lost
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 PGA Championship?	Yes	$28	1.9¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$117	39.0¢	Lost

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$328 @ 45.1¢
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?Won
Yes$171 @ 85.3¢
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30?Won
No$89 @ 89.0¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Lost
Yes$62 @ 31.3¢
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets Won
Lakers$57 @ 57.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$287 @ 41.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$327 @ 21.8¢
Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 84.7¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$1.4k @ 72.1¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$84 @ 23.9¢
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 PGA Championship?Lost
Yes$12 @ 1.7¢
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 3.0¢
Will there be exactly 2 major space weather events this week?Won
Yes$3 @ 1.2¢
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$152 @ 1.9¢
Will Steve Witkoff attend Trump’s Xi summit?Won
No$83 @ 20.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$427 @ 19.0¢
Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking be the top AI model on April 24, 2026 (Style Control On)?Won
Yes$203 @ 58.0¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Lost
No$175 @ 34.4¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
No$358 @ 77.9¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Won
Yes$833 @ 35.3¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$300 @ 82.3¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Lost
Yes$24 @ 23.7¢
Will there be fewer than 2 major space weather events this week?Lost
Yes$99 @ 10.3¢
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?Won
Yes$21 @ 69.0¢
Will Trump say "Where is" 3+ times during NCAA National Champions remarks on April 21?Lost
Yes$77 @ 9.4¢
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 Truist Championship?Won
Yes$18 @ 17.4¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$1.2k @ 76.7¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Lost
Yes$39 @ 12.8¢
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$26 @ 0.9¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?Won
No$393 @ 87.4¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Won
No$390 @ 60.0¢
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?Lost
No$62 @ 46.9¢
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?Won
No$305 @ 76.1¢
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?Lost
No$104 @ 17.1¢
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?Won
No$24 @ 48.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?Won
No$949 @ 73.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 8?Won
Yes$46 @ 57.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$559 @ 53.2¢
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Street" this week?Lost
Yes$14 @ 7.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?Lost
No$20 @ 10.0¢
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship?Lost
Yes$10 @ 4.0¢
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?Lost
Yes$35 @ 17.0¢
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?Won
No$84 @ 41.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$262 @ 65.6¢
Will Jared Kushner attend Trump’s Xi summit?Won
No$35 @ 17.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$87 @ 24.8¢
Will Trump post "POTUS" this week on Truth Social?Lost
No$250 @ 56.8¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Lost
No$61 @ 31.9¢
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 PGA Championship?Lost
Yes$28 @ 1.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$117 @ 39.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	—	No	$2.9k	82.8¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	—	No	$1.4k	95.0¢
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?	Sports	No	$693	60.2¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	—	No	$480	53.3¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 14?	—	No	$227	92.9¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Politics	No	$132	65.9¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Politics	No	$94	31.4¢
James Comey charges dropped by December 31?	—	No	$67	49.1¢
Will Tiger Woods play in a PGA Tournament in 2026?	Sports	No	$13	70.0¢
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$12	12.0¢

Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?—
No$2.9k @ 82.8¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?—
No$1.4k @ 95.0¢
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? Sports
No$693 @ 60.2¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?—
No$480 @ 53.3¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 14?—
No$227 @ 92.9¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?Politics
No$132 @ 65.9¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
No$94 @ 31.4¢
James Comey charges dropped by December 31?—
No$67 @ 49.1¢
Will Tiger Woods play in a PGA Tournament in 2026?Sports
No$13 @ 70.0¢
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$12 @ 12.0¢