← Smart money
0xc7fb…e5fd
ProfitableEdge
+3.1pp
ROI
+5%
Win rate
47% @ 43.9¢
Brier
0.208
Resolved
3407
Avg size
$90
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 49% (111/226) | +1% | 226 |
| Sports | 53% (51/96) | +10% | 96 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (2/2) | +32% | 2 |
| Politics | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Other226 bets
- Hit rate
- 49% (111/226)
- ROI
- +1%
- Sports96 bets
- Hit rate
- 53% (51/96)
- ROI
- +10%
- Geopolitics2 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (2/2)
- ROI
- +32%
- Politics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
50% hit · 164/325- No$1.6k @ 78.0¢
- No$230 @ 92.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 13.0¢
- No$239 @ 77.0¢
- Yes$4 @ 24.0¢
- Tucson Roadrunners$126 @ 42.0¢
- Yes$600 @ 58.0¢
- No$7.5k @ 65.1¢
- Yes$124 @ 56.9¢
- Yes$224 @ 41.0¢
- No$1.3k @ 42.0¢
- Yes$324 @ 54.0¢
- Yes$243 @ 27.9¢
- Under 5.5$86 @ 86.0¢
- Quentin Halys$600 @ 66.0¢
- No$1.3k @ 68.0¢
- Yes$840 @ 42.0¢
- No$1.5k @ 67.0¢
- Yes$360 @ 36.0¢
- No$2.7k @ 45.9¢
- No$1.0k @ 50.7¢
- No$5.1k @ 31.0¢
- Shintaro Mochizuki$612 @ 51.0¢
- No$8 @ 78.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 23.0¢
- No$1.3k @ 55.0¢
- No$36 @ 71.0¢
- No$730 @ 85.0¢
- Yes$24 @ 14.0¢
- Yes$5 @ 15.0¢
- No$421 @ 67.6¢
- No$92 @ 44.1¢
- Yes$17 @ 49.0¢
- Yes$1.3k @ 25.0¢
- Texas Stars$28 @ 56.0¢
- No$12 @ 66.0¢
- Manitoba Moose$406 @ 55.0¢
- Colorado Eagles$272 @ 54.0¢
- Yes$1.4k @ 71.0¢
- No$500 @ 50.0¢
- No$12 @ 86.0¢
- Yes$2.3k @ 29.0¢
- No$589 @ 70.7¢
- Yes$2.0k @ 88.0¢
- No$1.5k @ 53.7¢
- No$2.2k @ 73.0¢
- Yes$22 @ 7.4¢
- Yes$413 @ 36.4¢
- No$19 @ 1.9¢
- Yes$407 @ 63.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Sports | No | $7.6k | 95.3¢ |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Sports | No | $1.6k | 53.1¢ |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Politics | No | $1.5k | 74.0¢ |
| Will Flamengo win Brazil Série A? | Sports | Yes | $1.2k | 55.7¢ |
| Will Palmeiras win Brazil Série A? | Sports | No | $896 | 50.0¢ |
| Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | Politics | Yes | $400 | 13.3¢ |
| Will the Washington Wizards make the 2027 NBA Playoffs? | Sports | Yes | $362 | 35.9¢ |
| Will François Ruffin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | Politics | No | $308 | 94.9¢ |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | Politics | Yes | $160 | 8.0¢ |
| Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Sports | Yes | $141 | 11.6¢ |
- No$7.6k @ 95.3¢
- No$1.6k @ 53.1¢
- No$1.5k @ 74.0¢
- Yes$1.2k @ 55.7¢
- No$896 @ 50.0¢
- Yes$400 @ 13.3¢
- Yes$362 @ 35.9¢
- No$308 @ 94.9¢
- Yes$160 @ 8.0¢
- Yes$141 @ 11.6¢