0xc550…272d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xc550e5ee1011afb6d37c7fbb18fea32e03f9272d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+11.2pp

ROI

+20%

Win rate

56% @ 44.5¢

Brier

0.093

Resolved

515

Avg size

$130

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	39% (11/28)	+24%	28
Politics	69% (11/16)	+7%	16
Geopolitics	67% (2/3)	+31%	3

Other28 bets
Hit rate
39% (11/28)
ROI
+24%
Politics16 bets
Hit rate
69% (11/16)
ROI
+7%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+31%

Track record

51% hit · 24/47

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$143	79.2¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$1.2k	79.3¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$350	70.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$199	57.0¢	Lost
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$19	5.5¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$240	24.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$2.0k	83.3¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$1.7k	18.9¢	Won
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$7	1.1¢	Lost
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	$712	83.8¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	$2.0k	77.4¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	$731	86.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$3.8k	73.7¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?	No	$825	82.5¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$3.7k	60.2¢	Won
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$25	5.0¢	Lost
Rockets vs. Magic	Magic	$2	44.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$603	50.2¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$18.6k	72.5¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	$2.9k	36.0¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$1.4k	76.2¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	$1.1k	84.4¢	Won
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$4	0.8¢	Lost
Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Cavaliers	$3	33.0¢	Lost
Epstein client list released by June 30?	No	$188	75.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$430	71.7¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	$60	6.0¢	Lost
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$18	7.0¢	Lost
Will France win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$17	3.5¢	Lost
Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives by June 30?	No	$1	60.0¢	Won
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	$198	79.0¢	Won
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	$67	24.0¢	Lost
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?	No	$793	87.2¢	Won
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?	No	$12	88.0¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	No	$9.1k	79.2¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	$325	13.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	$572	76.3¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	$61	87.0¢	Won
Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by June 30?	Yes	$1.7k	79.4¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?	Yes	$390	39.0¢	Lost
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$11	2.3¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	$3.0k	85.7¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	$2.8k	79.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	No	$410	82.0¢	Won
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$10	2.0¢	Lost
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$7	0.9¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	$4.4k	84.5¢	Won

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$143 @ 79.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1.2k @ 79.3¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$350 @ 70.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$199 @ 57.0¢
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$19 @ 5.5¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$240 @ 24.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$2.0k @ 83.3¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 18.9¢
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 1.1¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Won
No$712 @ 83.8¢
Will Trump visit China by April 30?Won
No$2.0k @ 77.4¢
Will Trump visit China by April 30?Lost
Yes$731 @ 86.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$3.8k @ 73.7¢
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?Won
No$825 @ 82.5¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$3.7k @ 60.2¢
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$25 @ 5.0¢
Rockets vs. MagicLost
Magic$2 @ 44.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$603 @ 50.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$18.6k @ 72.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Lost
Yes$2.9k @ 36.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$1.4k @ 76.2¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?Won
No$1.1k @ 84.4¢
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.8¢
Cavaliers vs. PistonsLost
Cavaliers$3 @ 33.0¢
Epstein client list released by June 30?Won
No$188 @ 75.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$430 @ 71.7¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Lost
Yes$60 @ 6.0¢
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$18 @ 7.0¢
Will France win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$17 @ 3.5¢
Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives by June 30?Won
No$1 @ 60.0¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Won
No$198 @ 79.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Lost
No$67 @ 24.0¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?Won
No$793 @ 87.2¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?Won
No$12 @ 88.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?Won
No$9.1k @ 79.2¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?Lost
Yes$325 @ 13.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Won
No$572 @ 76.3¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?Won
No$61 @ 87.0¢
Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by June 30?Lost
Yes$1.7k @ 79.4¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?Lost
Yes$390 @ 39.0¢
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$11 @ 2.3¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?Won
No$3.0k @ 85.7¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$2.8k @ 79.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?Won
No$410 @ 82.0¢
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 2.0¢
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 0.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?Won
No$4.4k @ 84.5¢

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