0xc550…272d

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Other28 bets

  Hit rate

  39% (11/28)

  ROI

  +16%

• Politics17 bets

  Hit rate

  65% (11/17)

  ROI

  +5%

• Geopolitics3 bets

  Hit rate

  67% (2/3)

  ROI

  +31%

• US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
  No$143 @ 79.2¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$1.2k @ 79.3¢
• Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
  Yes$350 @ 70.0¢
• US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
  Yes$240 @ 24.0¢
• US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
  No$407 @ 81.0¢
• US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
  Yes$170 @ 17.0¢
• Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Won
  No$712 @ 83.8¢
• Will Trump visit China by April 30?Won
  No$2.0k @ 77.4¢
• Will Trump visit China by April 30?Lost
  Yes$430 @ 86.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
  No$3.8k @ 73.7¢
• US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
  Yes$3.7k @ 60.2¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$603 @ 50.2¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
  No$18.6k @ 72.5¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Lost
  Yes$2.9k @ 36.0¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
  No$315 @ 63.0¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?Won
  No$1.1k @ 84.4¢
• Cavaliers vs. PistonsLost
  Cavaliers$3 @ 33.0¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?Lost
  Yes$430 @ 71.7¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Lost
  Yes$60 @ 6.0¢
• Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives by June 30?Won
  No$1 @ 60.0¢
• US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Won
  No$198 @ 79.0¢
• Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Lost
  No$67 @ 24.0¢
• US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?Won
  No$12 @ 88.0¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?Won
  No$9.1k @ 79.2¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?Lost
  Yes$325 @ 13.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$572 @ 76.3¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?Won
  No$61 @ 87.0¢
• Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by June 30?Lost
  Yes$1.7k @ 79.4¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?Lost
  Yes$390 @ 39.0¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?Won
  No$3.0k @ 85.7¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$2.0k @ 81.0¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?Won
  No$410 @ 82.0¢
• Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 2.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?Won
  No$4.4k @ 84.5¢
• Rockets vs. MagicLost
  Magic$2 @ 44.0¢
• Will France win Eurovision 2026?Lost
  Yes$17 @ 3.5¢
• Will Germany win Eurovision 2026?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 0.9¢
• US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?Won
  No$825 @ 82.5¢
• Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 0.8¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
  No$199 @ 57.0¢
• Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?Lost
  Yes$19 @ 5.5¢
• Will Austria win Eurovision 2026?Lost
  Yes$7 @ 1.1¢
• Will Trump and Putin not meet?Lost
  No$102 @ 40.7¢
• Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$353 @ 86.1¢
• Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?Lost
  Yes$11 @ 2.3¢
• Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?Lost
  Yes$25 @ 5.0¢
• Epstein client list released by June 30?Won
  No$188 @ 75.0¢
• Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?Lost
  Yes$18 @ 7.0¢

Current positions

• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$13.2k @ 78.8¢
• Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$12.0k @ 90.8¢
• US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
  No$11.3k @ 87.7¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Politics
  No$11.2k @ 91.8¢
• Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
  No$11.2k @ 95.0¢
• Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics
  No$11.1k @ 93.0¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
  No$7.9k @ 92.1¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
  No$7.4k @ 82.1¢
• Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
  Yes$7.0k @ 82.3¢
• Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?Politics
  No$6.6k @ 96.1¢
• Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Politics
  No$6.1k @ 60.1¢
• Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Politics
  No$5.8k @ 83.1¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?—
  No$5.8k @ 88.9¢
• Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?Politics
  No$4.9k @ 83.1¢
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$4.8k @ 85.3¢
• New pandemic in 2026?Geopolitics
  No$4.2k @ 93.9¢
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?—
  No$3.6k @ 94.2¢
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?—
  No$3.2k @ 90.0¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?Politics
  No$2.5k @ 91.5¢
• Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August 2026?—
  No$2.1k @ 97.0¢
• Will Donald Trump visit India in 2026?Politics
  No$2.0k @ 89.8¢
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?—
  No$1.9k @ 70.9¢
• Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
  No$1.5k @ 97.2¢
• Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2026?Politics
  No$1.3k @ 65.0¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?Geopolitics
  No$1.3k @ 93.3¢
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$1.1k @ 84.4¢
• Iran leadership change by August 31?Politics
  No$952 @ 95.2¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Politics
  No$940 @ 94.0¢
• Modi out by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$796 @ 93.9¢
• Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?Politics
  No$708 @ 89.0¢