0xc412…592d

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Other377 bets

  Hit rate

  52% (197/377)

  ROI

  +6%

• Culture33 bets

  Hit rate

  30% (10/33)

  ROI

  -24%

• Politics24 bets

  Hit rate

  67% (16/24)

  ROI

  +26%

• Sports13 bets

  Hit rate

  38% (5/13)

  ROI

  +34%

• Economy10 bets

  Hit rate

  70% (7/10)

  ROI

  +40%

• Geopolitics7 bets

  Hit rate

  71% (5/7)

  ROI

  +29%

• Tech6 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (3/6)

  ROI

  -4%

• Science1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +18%

• Will the margin of victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election be between 3% and 6%?Won
  No$1 @ 50.0¢
• Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
  Yes$21 @ 4.8¢
• Will S&P Global say "Europe" or "European" during earnings call?Won
  Yes$6 @ 85.0¢
• Will Trump say "Absolute Resolve" or "Midnight Hammer" at Fort Bragg on Friday?Lost
  No$30 @ 12.0¢
• Will New York Knicks advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?Won
  Yes$6 @ 35.0¢
• Will "Spanish" be said at the Super Bowl?Won
  No$13 @ 77.0¢
• Will "Spanish" be said at the Super Bowl?Lost
  Yes$81 @ 81.0¢
• Will the number of US flights delayed on March 27 be greater than 6,000?Lost
  No$8 @ 2.7¢
• Will Noah rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?Lost
  Yes$11 @ 6.5¢
• Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Won
  Yes$550 @ 55.0¢
• Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?Won
  Yes$26 @ 43.3¢
• Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?Lost
  No$118 @ 58.2¢
• Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?Won
  Yes$32 @ 59.8¢
• Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?Won
  Yes$69 @ 69.4¢
• Will Powell say "Comment" during March press conference?Won
  No$11 @ 11.0¢
• Will Powell say "Comment" during March press conference?Lost
  Yes$4 @ 2.0¢
• Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during April press conference?Won
  No$218 @ 86.9¢
• Will Leavitt say "Stock Market" during the next White House Press Briefing?Won
  No$42 @ 84.0¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Won
  No$486 @ 81.0¢
• Will Angus King vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?Lost
  Yes$44 @ 22.0¢
• Will Trump say "Maduro" during Cabinet meeting on March 26?Lost
  Yes$4 @ 7.0¢
• Will MrBeast's latest video get 20–22 million views on day 1?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 20.0¢
• Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
  Yes$5 @ 4.9¢
• 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 70% by March 31?Won
  No$1 @ 79.0¢
• OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15?Lost
  No$12 @ 68.0¢
• OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15?Won
  Yes$6 @ 30.0¢
• Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?Won
  No$343 @ 85.8¢
• Will the announcers say "Goal" 60+ times during the Switzerland vs Colombia FIFA World Cup Match?Lost
  No$3 @ 3.0¢
• Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?Lost
  No$71 @ 71.0¢
• Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?Won
  Yes$2 @ 7.0¢
• Will Trump say "Soleimani" at The Villages on May 1?Won
  No$76 @ 75.5¢
• Karoline Leavitt out by March 31?Won
  No$3 @ 73.0¢
• Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during July Press Conference?Won
  No$25 @ 84.0¢
• Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during July Press Conference?Lost
  Yes$0 @ 2.0¢
• Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25?Lost
  Yes$9 @ 1.4¢
• Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during College Football Roundtable?Won
  No$67 @ 58.3¢
• Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Won
  No$1.3k @ 81.6¢
• Will MrBeast's next video get less than 55.0 million views on day 4?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
• Will ON Semiconductor say "Trump" during earnings call?Won
  No$20 @ 88.0¢
• Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $72 by end of February?Won
  No$4 @ 27.9¢
• Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $72 by end of February?Lost
  Yes$11 @ 55.0¢
• Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
• Will 'ICEMAN' be between 30 and 40 minutes long?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 4.0¢
• Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$0 @ 4.7¢
• NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets Won
  Lakers$1.5k @ 88.0¢
• Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during March press conference?Lost
  Yes$6 @ 12.0¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Lost
  Yes$27 @ 27.0¢
• Will Geno Ploeger win AGT Season 21?Lost
  Yes$45 @ 8.5¢
• Will Warsh say "Task Force" 5+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 3.0¢
• Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?Lost
  No$284 @ 25.8¢

Current positions

• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
  No$2.8k @ 98.0¢
• US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$1.5k @ 89.5¢
• Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1?Culture
  No$1.4k @ 99.8¢
• Republican House odds hit 15% by October 31?Politics
  No$1.1k @ 94.7¢
• Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
  Yes$1.1k @ 97.8¢
• Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?Culture
  No$1.0k @ 99.6¢
• Will MrBeast's next video get at least 45 million views on day 1?Culture
  Yes$921 @ 99.0¢
• Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?Politics
  No$848 @ 84.8¢
• Will GTA 6 cost $100+?Culture
  No$819 @ 90.3¢
• Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
  No$663 @ 89.4¢
• Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
  No$587 @ 95.9¢
• Fetterman leaves the Democrats before the midterms?Politics
  No$584 @ 87.6¢
• Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
  No$577 @ 96.2¢
• Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
  No$574 @ 95.7¢
• Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?Politics
  Yes$565 @ 75.9¢
• Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?Culture
  No$511 @ 98.9¢
• Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
  Yes$410 @ 82.0¢
• Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
  No$381 @ 95.2¢
• Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?Tech
  No$348 @ 97.3¢
• Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?Politics
  Yes$328 @ 63.5¢
• Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2026?Tech
  No$311 @ 97.8¢
• 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?Tech
  No$309 @ 92.9¢
• Republican House odds hit 12% by October 31?Politics
  No$270 @ 90.0¢
• Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
  No$255 @ 85.0¢
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$240 @ 24.0¢
• Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?Politics
  Yes$232 @ 85.7¢
• Will Trump's approval rating hit 50% in 2026?Politics
  No$204 @ 91.5¢
• Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?Economy
  Yes$195 @ 42.3¢
• New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?Politics
  No$195 @ 96.2¢
• Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1?Culture
  No$188 @ 99.5¢