0xc3be…0e17

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xc3be70a37b9dfbd193017fd0c5d274a9a0c50e17
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+5.0pp

ROI

+4%

Win rate

35% @ 30.2¢

Brier

0.133

Resolved

619

Avg size

$12

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	35% (80/227)	-1%	227
Politics	36% (5/14)	+36%	14
Tech	29% (2/7)	-64%	7
Sports	0% (0/5)	-100%	5
Crypto	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Culture	50% (1/2)	+203%	2

Other227 bets
Hit rate
35% (80/227)
ROI
-1%
Politics14 bets
Hit rate
36% (5/14)
ROI
+36%
Tech7 bets
Hit rate
29% (2/7)
ROI
-64%
Sports5 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/5)
ROI
-100%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+203%

Track record

34% hit · 88/258

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31?	No	$41	84.3¢	Won
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$23	81.9¢	Won
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	No	$24	6.0¢	Lost
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	Yes	$2	19.0¢	Lost
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?	No	$3	65.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August?	No	$4	20.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?	No	$73	73.0¢	Won
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025?	Yes	$12	2.6¢	Lost
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	No	$2	37.0¢	Won
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?	No	$267	47.7¢	Lost
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?	No	$59	84.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?	Yes	$1	20.0¢	Won
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$23	19.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	$30	76.0¢	Won
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31?	Yes	$2	10.9¢	Lost
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million?	No	$1	1.3¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in August?	Yes	$11	27.5¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$21	39.3¢	Lost
Will MicroStrategy hold 650k+ BTC by August 31?	Yes	$3	16.0¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$5	82.5¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025?	Yes	$3	32.0¢	Won
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1	1.4¢	Lost
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$9	43.0¢	Won
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?	No	$17	85.8¢	Won
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?	No	$9	89.0¢	Won
Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by March 31?	Yes	$1	13.3¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$242	11.6¢	Lost
Will Autodesk (ADSK) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$12	5.4¢	Lost
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?	Yes	$5	40.6¢	Won
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $17 million?	No	$32	55.2¢	Won
Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31?	Yes	$2	18.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?	No	$3	57.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?	Yes	$2	44.0¢	Won
LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner	FlyQuest	$2	47.0¢	Lost
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 - Game 2 Winner	100 Thieves	$1	16.0¢	Lost
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner	Gen.G	$2	66.0¢	Lost
Will Anyone’s Legend win LoL Worlds 2025?	Yes	$5	15.1¢	Lost
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?	Yes	$34	3.6¢	Lost
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?	No	$11	7.4¢	Lost
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?	Yes	$4	39.0¢	Won
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	Yes	$301	3.0¢	Lost
Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9?	Yes	$7	11.3¢	Lost
Will Reddit (RDDT) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$22	35.9¢	Lost
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner	Gen.G	$1	83.0¢	Won
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)	T1	$3	41.0¢	Won
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?	Yes	$2	0.6¢	Lost
Will Roblox (RBLX) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$9	30.0¢	Lost
Will Roblox (RBLX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$10	76.0¢	Won
Snapchat acquired in 2025?	Yes	$4	2.5¢	Lost

Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31?Won
No$41 @ 84.3¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Won
No$23 @ 81.9¢
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?Lost
No$24 @ 6.0¢
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after December 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?Lost
Yes$2 @ 19.0¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Won
No$3 @ 65.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August?Won
No$4 @ 20.0¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?Won
No$73 @ 73.0¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? Lost
Yes$12 @ 2.6¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Won
No$2 @ 37.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?Lost
No$267 @ 47.7¢
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?Won
No$59 @ 84.0¢
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Won
Yes$1 @ 20.0¢
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$23 @ 19.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?Won
No$30 @ 76.0¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31? Lost
Yes$2 @ 10.9¢
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million?Lost
No$1 @ 1.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in August?Lost
Yes$11 @ 27.5¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$21 @ 39.3¢
Will MicroStrategy hold 650k+ BTC by August 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 16.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$5 @ 82.5¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025?Won
Yes$3 @ 32.0¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.4¢
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$9 @ 43.0¢
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?Won
No$17 @ 85.8¢
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?Won
No$9 @ 89.0¢
Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by March 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 13.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$242 @ 11.6¢
Will Autodesk (ADSK) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$12 @ 5.4¢
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?Won
Yes$5 @ 40.6¢
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $17 million?Won
No$32 @ 55.2¢
Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 18.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?Lost
No$3 @ 57.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?Won
Yes$2 @ 44.0¢
LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest - Game 2 WinnerLost
FlyQuest$2 @ 47.0¢
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 - Game 2 WinnerLost
100 Thieves$1 @ 16.0¢
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 WinnerLost
Gen.G$2 @ 66.0¢
Will Anyone’s Legend win LoL Worlds 2025?Lost
Yes$5 @ 15.1¢
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?Lost
Yes$34 @ 3.6¢
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?Lost
No$11 @ 7.4¢
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?Won
Yes$4 @ 39.0¢
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Lost
Yes$301 @ 3.0¢
Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9?Lost
Yes$7 @ 11.3¢
Will Reddit (RDDT) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$22 @ 35.9¢
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 WinnerWon
Gen.G$1 @ 83.0¢
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)Won
T1$3 @ 41.0¢
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.6¢
Will Roblox (RBLX) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$9 @ 30.0¢
Will Roblox (RBLX) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$10 @ 76.0¢
Snapchat acquired in 2025?Lost
Yes$4 @ 2.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$343	25.6¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$60	59.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$18	21.0¢
Stripe IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$15	13.8¢
Databricks IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$13	18.6¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10	17.0¢
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$10	10.0¢
Mistral AI IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$10	16.0¢
Discord IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$10	56.0¢
Waymo IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$10	6.1¢
Epic Games IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$7	20.1¢
Anduril IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$5	47.0¢
Will Trump pardon Diddy before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$5	15.7¢
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$4	36.0¢
Canva IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$3	30.0¢
Revolut IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$2	20.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	No	$2	88.0¢
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$2	21.0¢
Will Trump pardon Do Kwon before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$2	3.5¢
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1	1.6¢
Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$1	16.0¢
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$1	15.0¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$343 @ 25.6¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?Politics
Yes$60 @ 59.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$18 @ 21.0¢
Stripe IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$15 @ 13.8¢
Databricks IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$13 @ 18.6¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$10 @ 17.0¢
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
Mistral AI IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$10 @ 16.0¢
Discord IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$10 @ 56.0¢
Waymo IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$10 @ 6.1¢
Epic Games IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$7 @ 20.1¢
Anduril IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$5 @ 47.0¢
Will Trump pardon Diddy before 2027?Politics
Yes$5 @ 15.7¢
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?Tech
Yes$4 @ 36.0¢
Canva IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$3 @ 30.0¢
Revolut IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$2 @ 20.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
No$2 @ 88.0¢
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon before 2027?Politics
Yes$2 @ 21.0¢
Will Trump pardon Do Kwon before 2027?Politics
Yes$2 @ 3.5¢
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1 @ 1.6¢
Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027?Politics
Yes$1 @ 16.0¢
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver before 2027?Politics
Yes$1 @ 15.0¢